Tourism on the rise, but may be threatened by weak Russian economy

Tourism in October was up by almost 80 percent compared to last year, according to figures released Wednesday by state statistics agency CAPMAS. One million foreign visitors arrived in Egypt in October 2014, compared to less than 559,000 in October 2013.

Visitors stayed longer as well. The average trip to Egypt lasted 10.5 nights in October 2014, compared to 8.6 nights the year before.

October’s figures continue a string of positive indicators that began in July, when Egypt recorded year-on-year growth for the first time in 2014.

In July, 886,000 foreign tourists visited Egypt while August saw 997,705 arrivals. Visitor numbers for September were lower than August at 883,946, but still outperformed the same month in 2013.

Strong growth throughout the quarter had experts and officials predicting a rebound for the tourism industry, which has been weak since the 2011 revolution.

Much of the year-on-year growth can be attributed to low visitors numbers the year before. The summer and autumn months of 2013 were marred by episodes of extraordinary political violence, including the deadly dispersal of the pro-Morsi sit-in at Rabea al-Adaweya and clashes on October 6 that left more than 50 dead. News of these events, along with travel warnings by foreign governments, kept many would-be visitors away.

Despite condemnations from around the world on Egypt’s human rights record, and escalating violence in North Sinai, numbers from recent months indicate that tourists were finally starting to feel safe visiting Egypt again.

Now, Egypt’s tourist industry may face challenges from an unexpected quarter. Western sanctions and falling oil prices have led to a sharp decline in the value of the Russian ruble. Meanwhile, since May Egypt has kept official exchange rates steady at around 7.14 to the US dollar, despite the rise of the dollar against other global currencies.

Russian money does not go as far as it did a few months ago, and tourist destinations around the world are anticipating a drop in visitors from Russia.

Egypt is particularly reliant on visitors from Russia. According to government figures, Russia sends more visitors to Egypt than any other single country, accounting for almost 20 percent of all tourism in the 2012/13 fiscal year.

They are particularly important for Red Sea tourism, which traditionally sees its high season during the winter months.

Although it did not provide visitor data by country, CAPMAS said that Russians made up 47 percent of visitors to Egypt in October 2014.