Amid diplomatic tug-of-war, Cairo operations room works to calibrate Egypt’s position on Russia-Ukraine conflict

​​Egypt has set up an operations room to follow the developing situation in Ukraine, where fighting continued on Wednesday for the seventh day since Russia launched a multi-front offensive on Kyiv.

Outside of the battlefield, the war has ramifications for the wider global economy and regional geopolitical relations, as major Western powers seek to close ranks and isolate Russia. 

The developments leave Egypt on a tightrope as it seeks to manage bilateral relations with Russia and Western countries, according to a government source who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. 

While Russia has a major footprint in Egypt’s trade, security and regional diplomacy arrangements, Egypt is also dependent on economic and political support from Europe and the US.

“Political consultations are taking place every day that include the Foreign Ministry and a number of parties concerned with foreign policy to review the Egyptian position on the crisis in light of the pressures Cairo is under,” the source said.

In a tussle for Cairo’s loyalty, both Russian and Ukrainian embassies in the capital have called on Egypt to support their respective positions in recent days, while the embassies of the G7 countries in Cairo also weighed in Monday to call for Egypt to take a firm stance in rejecting an invasion into a sovereign country.

Egypt tried to sidestep some of this pressure at a meeting of the Arab League earlier this week, though Western embassies have made it clear that the Arab League’s statement was not sufficient to support their anti-Russian stance. 

Behind closed doors Egypt was informed in diplomatic yet clear and strict language by a number of Western embassies in Cairo that the statement issued at the end of the Arab League on Monday — which called for diplomacy, an avoidance of escalation and consideration of the humanitarian situation — was not enough, according to the government source.

Western embassies, the source said, said that Arab countries will have to take a clearer position. That could take place at one of two forums: Egypt could put its name to a non-binding resolution to isolate Russia by deploring its "aggression against Ukraine" and demanding Russian troops stop fighting and withdraw, which is on the table for a vote at the United Nations General Assembly meeting currently taking place in New York; or a stronger statement could come out of a meeting of the Arab foreign ministers, which is to take place this week at the headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo.

And in public, a joint statement published by the G7 ambassadors in Cairo on Monday was a clear demand for greater public support from Egypt at the UN General Assembly vote scheduled for Wednesday.

"The issue today is not about the situation in Europe. No country in the world can accept an infringement on the sovereignty of others just because its most powerful neighbor wants it. The international community cannot accept unjustified violations of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations, especially with regard to the prohibition of the use of force. Russia's attempt to destabilize the international system will also have repercussions on the Middle East and Africa region, including Egypt,” the G7 ambassadors wrote in their joint statement on Monday.

Some public figures, MP Mostafa Bakry among them, bit back at the request from the G7 countries as an incursion on Egypt’s sovereignty.

The stakes of the diplomatic tug-of-war for Egypt, according to sources that spoke to Mada Masr, center on Cairo’s dire need for continued economic support from Europe given the precarity on that front, while decision-makers are also beginning to worry about how feasible long-standing military, economic and energy cooperation with Russia given the extent of expanding economic sanctions that have targeted a raft of Russian banks and companies over recent days, and also taken a step toward isolating Russia’s trade outlets. 

Egypt’s position amid the diplomatic pressure, according to the government source, is "extremely complex and sensitive," as Cairo cannot turn its back on the United States, especially at the current critical moment in which it needs all the support and assistance it can get in dealing with the thorny file of the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam. 

Western diplomatic sources in Cairo, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that it is Western countries that have supported Egypt's claim to raise the GERD file before the UN Security Council, not Russia and China.

Egypt’s economic situation also means it doesn’t have sufficient standing to push against pressure from the Western nations calling for Egypt to take a stand against Russia. 

Cairo cannot enter into a serious confrontation with its Western allies, the source said, because it needs them to support Egypt via economic projects and any potential program with the International Monetary Fund if the need arises, in addition to other forms of economic, military and development cooperation, including the EU-Egypt Partnership Priorities agreement that is supposed to be signed this summer and will cover aspects of bilateral cooperation between the bloc and Cairo through 2027. 

One of the key issues concerns Egypt’s potential ballooning balance of payments, with global wheat supplies, so vital to Egypt’s bread subsidy program, likely to be squeezed. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, with Russia and Kyiv jointly representing the source of between 60 and 80 percent of Egypt’s annual wheat stocks.

Regarding Egypt and Russia’s shared diplomatic interests in a number of regional files, including East Africa, Libya and the Sahel and Saharan states, the source said, “the whole situation is sensitive, and there are consultations taking place every day between the concerned agencies and the embassies of countries in Cairo and the Egyptian embassies in these countries.”

Egypt has substantial economic ties with Russia as well, with Russia’s Rosatom undertaking the US$26 billion project to construct a nuclear power station at Dabaa. When asked about the Dabaa nuclear power, the source emphasized that “everything is tied to all parties reaching a political agreement that will end the crisis and open the door to stabilizing matters.”