The mysterious fall of Wad Madani

Jubilation filled the streets of Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State and home to hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the war in Sudan’s capital, on Sunday after the Sudanese military repelled attacks from the Rapid Support Forces.

Within 24 hours, however, that jubilation gave way to shock, as the RSF swiftly took over the heavily fortified city and secured a key gateway to the rest of the country.

In the face of the city’s stunning fall, which has sent thousands of people fleeing in fear of the RSF’s brutality, the Sudanese Armed Forces released a statement on Tuesday night, acknowledging that its forces had withdrawn from the city. “The reasons and circumstances that led to the withdrawal of forces from their positions and its impact on military zones are being investigated. The results of the investigation will be immediately submitted to the competent authorities upon its completion, and then the facts will be made available to the public.”

Despite drawing criticism from Sudanese social media, the statement was necessary to explain to the public how the city fell, according to a soldier who recently fought at Wad Madani and the nearby Hantoub Bridge, where the RSF's attacks have been concentrated since Friday.

It was only a few hours after the Armed Forces spokesperson Nabil Abdullah announced Gezira to be free of rebel groups on Sunday night that the RSF crossed the Hantoub Bridge and entered Wad Madani, taking control of the city by 4 pm on Monday.

Dozens of RSF combat vehicles poured into the city, encircling the Armed Forces headquarters, entering the local government’s administrative building and establishing checkpoints throughout the city, eyewitnesses told Mada Masr.

The RSF’s entry into the city came despite fierce clashes to the east of Wad Madani, where the first brigade of the military’s First Infantry Division engaged the militia. The military was also active in Rufaa, storming the RSF-controlled city around 55 km from Wad Madani. The fighting in Rufaa left one medical staff member at the city’s hospital dead, while two others were arrested by the RSF and taken to an unknown location, the health facility’s medical director told Mada Masr.

Eyewitnesses in the city told Mada Masr that the military pursued RSF before suddenly withdrawing to the south of the city.

Rufaa, which is located in the east of the Gezira State, is connected to the western portion by the Friendship Bridge, which links it to Hasaheisa, a city only a few kilometers west of Wad Madani.

The military police withdrew from Hasaheisa on Monday afternoon, despite the fact that the RSF had not entered the city, eyewitnesses in the city told Mada Masr.

Speaking of military operations in Wad Madani and the surrounding areas, a military source told Mada Masr that a “setback” occurred with the First Infantry Division due to the division leadership’s battle management plan. The source said that there were clear deficiencies in the readiness of the division, which is a newly formed unit that is not battle-tested and lacks cohesion among its ranks. 

In the source’s estimation, the division made tactical errors when it allowed the RSF to move into Gezira instead of confronting them at the state’s access points.

The RSF moved into Gezira on December 15, setting off from Jebel Awliyaa, located in the southernmost areas of the capital and bordering the states of Gezira and White Nile. The RSF convoy consisted of 150 vehicles, most of them non-military grade, according to local residents in the Abu Quta and Wad Rawah regions in Gezira state.

RSF vehicles were stationed at various points on the road connecting the southwest of Khartoum state and northeast of Gezira, eyewitnesses said.

It was expected that the Sudanese Armed Forces would send reinforcements there to repel the RSF advance instead of fighting the rebels in densely populated urban areas, according to the military source, who said forces awaited such directives.

In the source’s estimation, the military was not prepared to fight within the state. There was a shortage of ammunition and fuel, the source told Mada Masr, which made it hard for military forces to maneuver despite the significant deployment of 40,000 troops in the state, a number that includes regular soldiers, recently absorbed civilian fighters, and the newly reinstated special operations unit of the General Intelligence Services.

Despite the shortcomings in the military’s capacity, there were troops stationed at the Hantoub Bridge, which the RSF eventually used to enter Wad Madani.

According to a soldier who participated in the fighting to the east of the city, the RSF launched an attack on the First Infantry Division’s command post under the Hantoub Bridge on the eastern side of the river from the early hours of Monday until noon. Military forces stationed in the command post on the eastern side of the bridge withdrew to the western side of the bridge. Shortly afterward, RSF troops were posting photos from inside the eastern command center. The Sudanese Air Force bombed the RSF-held command center, the soldier said, but the MiG fighter jet was hit by anti-craft fire. The military’s attempt to retake the eastern command center was unsuccessful, with the unit’s commander being killed in the fighting.

“Between one and four in the afternoon, there was a very strange calm,” the soldier says. “We heard the sound of clashes. And then, at four in the afternoon, we heard that the RSF had entered, despite our prior knowledge of the large presence of military forces at the entrance of the bridge, in addition to heavy weapons and three tanks.”

As the RSF began to spread through the city, looting homes, the soldier says his unit began to prepare to deploy.

“But everyone was surprised that the division commander and his deputy were not present, and there was no division officer to lead the forces,” he says. “We did not see smoke, we did not hear the sound of a real battle. And no real fighting occurred. We heard the news, like civilians, on social media. And when we directly asked our commanding officer, he did not have any information.”

Wad Madani’s fall was like the fall of dominos, a former military officer in the military intelligence told Mada Masr, arguing that the RSF was able to incrementally advance south from Khartoum over the last six months. “The state surrendered in the face of these invasions,” the source said.

The source particularly pointed to the fall of Jebel Awliyaa, saying that the state did not send enough reinforcements to the north of Gezira, close to the southern border of Khartoum. Jebel Awliyaa is the first line of defense against an advance into the Gezira State, the source said, as it is a high ground to provide cover for military forces in the Tiba camp and would have allowed the military to repel RSF advances from the Baqeer military site adjacent to Khartoum,” the officer says.

"It is evident that the military lacks sufficient ammunition, as it had relied on supplies from the Yarmouk factory, which halted when the facility fell. This was compounded by the minimal external supplies,” the source told Mada Masr.

The fall of Wad Madani, in the eyes of the former military officer, could mean the fall of the entire state of Gezira and could allow the RSF to move toward the White Nile, Sennar and Gadrif states as well, not just to conquer ground but to recruit local leaders into the RSF’s political structure, the source explains.

The source explained this thinking by pointing to Abu Agla Keikel, the commander of the RSF’s northern unit, who was not initially part of the RSF. Abu Agla recently joined the militia, after an agreement with RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” as part of a deal to facilitate military support for the RSF in the bordering areas of Khartoum. But Abu Agla’s forces do not participate in RSF military operations.

While this was the original agreement, left unchecked, Keikel’s forces began participating in RSF operations, joining the operation in Gezira, the military source said. When they carved out a space for greater movement, the RSF’s special forces unit joined, the source added. 

When asked about the stunning success of the attack on Wad Madani and rumors that elements within the military had cooperated with the RSF, a military source within the Rapid Support Forces told Mada Masr that the attack on the First Infantry Division in the city was part of a clear plan to attack what he described as "jihadist battalions.” The source expressed surprise at what he called “campaigns” alleging that the RSF had cooperated with military commanders in the city.