Sudan Nasrha: War reaches 10th month | Military sets conditions for Jeddah talks | Burhan halts aid to RSF-controlled areas

Ten months have elapsed and the war in Sudan is still raging on, showing no signs of resolution. The country’s political and military composition, as well as its internal and external alliances, are in a constant state of flux. 

Externally, Sudan has rekindled its political and military ties with Iran. Sudanese-Iranian relations were first established during the rule of ousted President Omar al-Bashir, but were severed eight years ago, as Sudan pivoted toward the Gulf. But with Gulf relations now frosty or hostile to the Sudanese Armed Forces, the government is looking to a former ally. 

On the military front, fighting is intensifying in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, while the Sudanese Armed Forces is making headway in wresting control of Omdurman back from the Rapid Support Forces. Airstrikes over the last week have targeted RSF positions in the cities of Khartoum and Bahri. 

The military still maintains control over its positions in the border city of Babanusa in West Kordofan State, while local sources report that the RSF has withdrawn from the city after launching an attack several weeks ago despite pleas from city leaders to spare the strategic area for fear of igniting regional and ethnic tensions. 

Fasher, the capital city of North Darfur State and the last military holdout in Darfur that has been besieged for several months, witnessed sporadic fighting over the past week as tension continues to build for an expected full-scale battle. 

With the resumption of the Jeddah talks on the horizon, sources from Sudan’s Sovereignty Council have confirmed to Mada Masr that the military plans to pick up where the previous round left off: a discussion of how to implement the Jeddah Declaration, which makes provisions for the supply of much needed humanitarian aid and sets a framework for discussions to bring the fighting to an end. 

Meanwhile, the Civil Front for Democracy stated that they have not lost hope in the parties returning to the negotiating table, a sentiment echoed by the RSF, even as they accused Sudanese Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of evading the matter. 

On a humanitarian level, Burhan said that he will not allow the entry of humanitarian aid to areas under the RSF’s control, a political move that could jeopardize the safety and wellbeing of many of those who now find themselves under the militia’s control. Sources from the Sovereignty Council have hinted that this issue will be on the agenda of the upcoming Jeddah talks. 

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Sudanese-Iranian relations restored: Sudanese Foreign Minister visits Tehran

Sudan and Iran continue to make progress in their diplomatic relations following the announcement of their restoration around four months ago. This was highlighted by Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali al-Sadig’s recent visit to Tehran last week, marking the first such visit since the severing of ties in 2016.

A source from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr that the primary objective of Sadig's visit to the Iranian capital last week was to initiate the implementation of the diplomatic commitments agreed upon during the three official diplomatic meetings with Iranian delegations in recent months.

According to the source, the restoration of diplomatic relations with Iran aligns with recommendations made by evaluation committees formed by the Sudanese Foreign Ministry regarding ties with Iran. These were among other high-level committees established to assess the country's foreign relations in light of political and international developments, as well as the outbreak of war in the country.

In light of concerns voiced in the media about what the move could mean for Sudan’s relations with the West, the source emphasized that the Sudanese government believes that its ties with Iran can be based on addressing common interests while respecting international norms, traditions, and Sudan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The move to strengthen relations between Khartoum and Tehran comes amid the isolation and hostility that Sudan is experiencing from some of its neighboring countries and regional Arab and African states. 

During Bashir’s rule, Sudan had robust political, military and cultural ties with Iran. However, Bashir severed these ties in 2016 when he aligned with the Saudi-led Gulf axis and committed the Sudanese Armed Forces to participating in the war in Yemen.

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Attempts to cut off RSF supplies in Kordofan

The three states of Kordofan are currently experiencing a relative calm. However, the military has launched preemptive attacks on the RSF in the vicinity of major cities. 

A military source in South Kordofan State told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that military operations are stable. However, the source noted that the RSF’s movements are governed more by tribal considerations rather than military strategy. The RSF aims to strike against the interests of certain communities in South and West Kordofan, in an attempt to incite conflict between the groups.

On the ground, the armed forces have launched attacks on several areas in the vicinity of Obeid, Dalang and Babanusa. The objective is to protect citizens within these cities and attempt to provide them with food supplies, as the RSF has been seeking to cut off all provisions between cities and seize food supplies from traders.

The military source confirmed that further military operations will be carried out in Kordofan states, coinciding with ongoing operations in Omdurman in their efforts to sever all RSF military supply lines. However, the military is facing difficulties due to the extensive supply routes that the RSF is attempting to utilize, according to the source.

In Babanusa, a local leader told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the RSF withdrew from the city and its surroundings after failing to capture the 22nd Infantry Division. 

The aftermath of the RSF’s attack on the city has been devastating, with over 50,000 people displaced and markets depleted of essential goods, according to the source. 

Meanwhile, another military source said that the armed forces retain control over all of their positions, whether it be in the city’s 22nd Division or the 89th Brigade, adding that military reinforcements have been deployed to all defense areas in the city.

The source also added that there are concerns that clashes may erupt in border areas with the return of herders from South Sudan. Widespread looting is also taking place in various areas of the state amid difficulties in providing full protection for livestock herds, which will reflect on security in surrounding areas. Hence, the military is working on communicating with local administrations in order to preserve internal cohesion and secure safe passage for livestock in West Kordofan State, according to the source.

In Darfur, the military repelled an RSF attack on the 6th Infantry Division in Fasher. A field military source in the city, speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, reported estimated losses among the RSF ranks.

Fasher is currently on high alert following the renewal of battles, especially in its northern areas, where the Sudanese Armed Forces is stationed.

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Battles in Omdurman at crossroads

Omdurman remains the most important military site in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum. The war has turned the city into a ghost town following the mass exodus of millions of citizens as they fled the clashes that erupted on April 15 last year. 

Built over the course of two hundred years in its modern form, Khartoum has been reduced to ruins, with all healthcare and educational services halted, in addition to a complete shutdown of federal government institutions that have relocated to Port Sudan, now the de facto administrative capital on the country’s eastern coast.

In the past week, the three cities that make up the capital have witnessed military clashes on two fronts. The first is in Omdurman, where the military is still attempting to connect its strategic Engineers Corps in the south and the military area of Karrari to the north. And the second is in Bahri.

According to field military sources in Omdurman, the military has made slight progress. The sources told Mada Masr that the military has advanced in the streets around the Tigani al-Mahi Hospital, south of Omdurman market and overlooking Arda street. The military is trying to gain full control over the Tigani Hospital area to connect it with the Engineers Corps, instead of moving into the Karrari military area.

The sources added that the military targeted RSF troops that attempted to infiltrate from behind the Sudanese forces toward the Engineers Corps. This move coincided with the release of an audio recording of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” ordering the advance of his forces in the area. 

In addition to the Engineers Corps, the military area of Omdurman houses the Sudanese Air Defense forces, the 48th Rocket Artillery Brigade, the Music Corps, the military judiciary, the military hospital, the military college, the Nimeiri Military Academy, a branch of the Military University of Karrari, and accommodations and shopping centers for officers and soldiers. 

Situated on the western bank of the White Nile, past the White Nile and al-Fatehab bridges, Omdurman’s military area stretches about 3 kilometers westward, touching the Bant district in the north and the Mohandeseen district to the west. It further extends to the Fatehab quarters and parts of Ombada to the west and north. 

On May 10, 2008, Omdurman’s military area halted the advance of the Justice and Equality Movement’s forces, the Darfuri rebel group that had launched Operation Long Arm and attempted to cross into Khartoum via the Fatehab bridge.

The military’s strategy in Omdurman heavily relies on the use of drones, alongside its infantry troops. A military source stated that this strategy was adopted after the RSF’s jamming capacities were hampered by military airstrikes. This has enabled the military’s drones to target RSF artillery positions.

According to a field source in Omdurman, the military is engaged in fierce battles across five military axes. It is expected that the Greater Omdurman municipality will soon be within the military’s reach, with only a 200-meter distance separating the Engineers Corps and the Wadi Sidna military site. 

In Bahri city in northern Khartoum, the military has been targeting RSF sites. According to a military source in the Weapons Corps in the northern part of the city, the military aims to conduct extensive attrition operations against the RSF troops in the city, followed by a military advance. This strategy aims to undermine the RSF’s military capabilities and target its large stockpile of weapons held in Bahri, which has not experienced the same level of operations as Khartoum and Omdurman.

A military source in the Signal Corps stated that there has been a qualitative development in the military situation in the northern part of the city amid ongoing operations. The airstrikes on RSF’s heavy artillery sites have effectively hampered their offensive capabilities. Furthermore, the military has managed to provide a stable supply from the Signal Corps camp to the General Command, according to the source, who added that they are currently slowly advancing.

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Saudi, US mediators propose resumption of negotiations

A source from Sudan’s Sovereignty Council told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that Saudi Arabia has proposed the resumption of the Jeddah talks and indirect negotiation processes between the Sudanese government and the RSF, which have been on hold since last November. 

The source stated that the government has set clear conditions for the resumption of negotiations, including the removal of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) from the mediation process. Sudan, no longer a member of the bloc, believes that IGAD holds no stake in the Sudan agenda. However, it welcomes IGAD members as neighboring countries with shared interests, but not as an organization. 

Sudan suspended its membership in IGAD in January, following a prolonged series of diplomatic disputes that began with the outbreak of the war.

A source from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, said that the government had lost confidence in IGAD. The source emphasized that since the establishment of the Kenyan-led IGAD quartet group, there has been a tendency to equate Sudan’s official military with the RSF, while disregarding the legitimacy of Burhan’s position as the head of the Sovereignty Council. 

The source further stated that Ethiopia initially held a similar position but reversed its stance following the Sudan’s Neighboring Countries Summit in Cairo. The source added that certain countries seek to advance their own interests by treating the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF as equals, a proposition that the Sudanese government rejects and works to counter. 

The Sovereignty Council source said that negotiations will pick up where they left off, focusing on reviewing the implementation of the Jeddah Declaration. The military will not introduce anything new, except for addressing the clear implementation of what has been agreed upon up to this point, the source added. 

Meanwhile, a source in the Foreign Ministry emphasized the military’s commitment to upholding the agreements reached in previous rounds, contingent on the RSF’s commitment to implementing the Jeddah Declaration, signed in May, and the agreement signed in November. 

On the other hand, Alaa Eddin Nugud, the official spokesperson for the Civil Front for Democracy, the group formed by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, expressed hope for the cessation of the war and the establishment of peace in Sudan. He emphasized that the front still carries on with its efforts in this regard through regional and international tours, and its participation in all forums, especially IGAD and with regional countries.

He added that a meeting was held in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on Wednesday, between the preparatory committee of the Civil Front for Democracy, and US Assistant State Secretary for African Affairs Molly Phee, in addition to US Special Envoy for the African Horn Mike Hammer and US embassy staff in Khartoum. He noted that the meeting discussed the roadmap that was put forward by the front to resolve the Sudanese crisis.

Nugud ruled out the failure of the forums, despite accusing Burhan of intransigence in all peace forums. He said that Burhan’s refusal to engage is imposed by members of the ousted regime, adding that the Sudanese Foreign Ministry is being influenced by them.

He called on Burhan to meet with the Civili Front for Democracy’s delegation to break what he described as the link between the military’s leadership and ousted regime members.

In this context, Ibrahim Mokheir, a member of the advisory office for the RSF, said that they have not lost hope for peace, noting that the paramilitary group has conveyed its vision to the international community and criticized Burhan's “evasive” tactics.

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Burhan: No humanitarian aid allowed in RSF-controlled areas

During his visit to the 19th Infantry Division in al-Daba city, northern Sudan, Burhan emphasized that he will not permit any humanitarian aid to reach areas under the RSF’s control.

Burhan stated that “this can only happen after the cessation of this war and repelling these criminal rebels from citizens’ homes and governmental and service institutions, and all the cities they have plundered and seized in Nyala, Geneina, Madani, and Khartoum, and the return of all that they have stolen.”

Burhan’s statement comes against the backdrop of years of dispute between Sudanese governments and the armed movements they had fought regarding the delivery of humanitarian aid to conflict-stricken areas during the country’s successive civil wars. 

However, in the current conflict and prior to the RSF’s takeover of most of the states in Darfur and Kordofan, humanitarian aid was being channeled through Port Sudan via the joint force affiliated with pro-military armed movements. 

Amid a United Nations-led appeal to raise US$4.1 billion to address the pressing humanitarian needs in Sudan, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths announced a meeting between the military and the RSF to discuss the delivery of humanitarian aid. 

Following the meeting, Hemedti launched what he called “an appeal to the international community” regarding the humanitarian situation in Sudan. He stated that there is a rapid deterioration and a food security crisis throughout Sudan, especially in areas under his forces’ control in Khartoum, Kordofan, Darfur and Gezira. 

Hemedti expressed his readiness to engage in a bilateral agreement and collaborate with international organizations and agencies to rescue civilians in areas under his control. 

According to a military source, Burhan's visit to the Northern State reaffirms the military leadership's commitment to ensuring the unobstructed flow of humanitarian corridors that support cities and regions in Darfur. 

Daba has witnessed commercial traffic connecting the Northern State with North Darfur State.

Last month, an estimated 350 military four-wheel-drive vehicles belonging to the joint forces in Darfur arrived in Daba, to secure the areas connecting the Northern State with North Darfur State and establish forward defenses to prevent any advances or attacks by the RSF on the city.

A source from Sudan’s Sovereignty Council said that Burhan has taken an early stance on the issue of humanitarian aid and its entry into RSF-controlled areas. This position is likely to be reflected in the upcoming negotiations expected to resume in Jeddah in February. Additionally, Burhan expressed his position against any attempt to involve the RSF in humanitarian matters, stating that there are specific and clear arrangements and protocols for such operations, despite the fact that the RSF de facto controls large swaths of territory in Sudan.

The source added that Burhan has shut the door on all appeals for a meeting with Hemedti regarding the delivery of humanitarian aid to war-affected citizens.

According to a source in a humanitarian aid organization, the number of Sudanese in urgent need of humanitarian intervention has exceeded 25 million people.