Sudan Nashra: Hemedti’s brother meets Kiir in Juba | Khartoum faces starvation | Sudanese currency in freefall

The toll of sixteen months of consecutive conflict on Sudan’s economy saw the Sudanese pound fall beyond the 2,000 mark to the US dollar in recent days. Compounded with the mounting impact of the conflict on the agrarian nation, which is increasingly leaving Sudan’s people struggling for sustenance, the currency spiral contributed to the complex layers of crises building in the country which will leave the government facing a severe financial shortfall in the second half of the year. 

At the same time, mass displacement of people fleeing abuses by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to grow in Darfur and central Sudan, with a government official in the administrative capital Port Sudan telling Mada Masr that the number of internally displaced persons has reached 12 million.

As for the parties to the conflict, the RSF saw a few major internal shifts over recent weeks. A diplomatic source from South Sudan told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that RSF Deputy Commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo arrived in Juba on Wednesday for talks with President Salva Kiir. An RSF source told Mada Masr that Dagalo is increasingly taking the lead, replacing his brother Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” amid conflicting reports about Hemedti’s deteriorating health. According to an RSF source who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, Abdel Rahim Dagalo is now handling critical matters, while his brother Hemedti’s influence has waned, particularly after his failure to meet with head of the Transitional Sovereign Council and Sudanese Army Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Abdel Rahim Dagalo’s leading the secret talks in Manama at the beginning of the year. According to the source, Dagalo appears poised to lead the RSF in the coming phase. Just days before Dagalo’s visit to Juba, Hemedti laid off his political advisor Youssef Ezzat, who claimed that his mandate has now been handed over to Hemedti’s brother.

On the battleground, military operations continued in the Sudanese capital Khartoum. Several explosions struck the Gaili oil refinery this week, while clashes persist around the Armored Corps camps, General Command headquarters, and the Kadro military area in the south, center, and north of Khartoum. In Kadro, the military is attempting to compensate for the delayed entry of its forces from Omdurman via the Halfaya bridge, which the RSF partially destroyed in June.

In the southeastern Sennar State, military operations are ongoing in Jebel Moya and Maiurno, which the RSF attempted to capture to besiege Sennar city. However, the military and Operations Authority — the military wing of the General Intelligence Service — repelled the attack.

And in the west, in Fasher, the last stronghold of the Sudanese military in Darfur, military operations are slowing down. As the RSF reorganizes its internal political structures, there has been a noticeable decline in their military buildup.

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Battles in Sennar

The Rapid Support Forces continued to mount assaults on Sennar State, which borders Gezira, Blue Nile, and White Nile states and sits close to South Sudan, after launching an offensive on the area four weeks ago and managing initially to make advances. 

Sennar, one of Sudan’s most historic cities, remains the last major city under military control. 

Backed by strategic battalions and the Islamist-affiliated Baraa ibn Malik Brigade, the military along with the Operations Authority forces — the military wing of the General Intelligence Service — repelled the attacks.

A military source told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the military thwarted three separate RSF attacks over the course of Sunday and Monday. The source noted that the RSF is attempting to breach the military’s advanced defenses to open all fronts in order to attack and capture the city, but the military’s defenses have managed to defeat the attacking forces so far.

The source anticipated that the RSF would continue to assault the city and noted that the military is meanwhile advancing on the Jebel Moya front, which fell into the RSF’s hands late June, given its strategic importance as it links Sennar, White Nile, and Gezira states. 

Speaking to the rising concerns that the rainy season could potentially disrupt military operations as heavy rainfall causes rough terrain and complicates logistics, the source acknowledged the challenge but expressed confidence in the extensive experience of the military’s field commanders to adapt to the changing conditions.

For the second consecutive week, the military conducted operations on the bridge linking the town of Maiurno to the road leading to Sennar, repelling RSF attacks. 

A field source from the Operations Authority told Mada Masr that the military and authority’s forces have reinforced their military capabilities on the bridge, considering it the city's first line of defense. The source asserted that RSF attempts would be futile given the military fortifications established by the Operations Authority, predicting a decline in RSF operations on the bridge due to their inability to effectively mobilize troops and equipment. 

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Joint force penetrates Zurug base

A military source from the joint force- — the military-aligned unit composed of members of the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudanese Liberation Movement —  told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that, with the support of the military’s Air Force, the joint force managed at the beginning of this week to seize control of subsidiary camps in the Zurug base near the Libyan border, the largest RSF stronghold in North Darfur State.

The source added that since the end of June, the joint force has launched extensive military operations around the Zurug base, resulting in the capture of Wadi Ambar, which houses subsidiary RSF camps. 

On Sunday, the Sudanese military broadcast footage from Wadi Ambar of joint force soldiers stating they had secured the area.

Wadi Ambar is a crucial entry point to the Zurug base, which serves as a logistical hub for the RSF.

According to a military source from the military’s Sixth Infantry Division in Fasher who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, the military will continue high-intensity operations to neutralize all supply lines used by the RSF to sustain the flow of military equipment and ammunition to their forces in the states where they are conducting operations.

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Rising prospects for Hemedti’s brother leading the RSF

RSF Deputy Commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo arrived in Juba on Wednesday for a meeting with President Salva Kiir, a South Sudanese government source told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. 

An RSF source told Mada Masr that Dagalo is increasingly taking the lead, replacing his brother Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” amid conflicting reports about Hemedti’s deteriorating health, just one of the shifts affecting the RSF at present.

While the South Sudanese government source did not disclose the visit’s agenda, they confirmed that the meeting was also attended by Kiir's Senior Presidential Envoy on Special Programs and influential businessman Benjamin Bol Mel Kuol. The source said that Bol Mel likely orchestrated Dagalo's July visit to Juba.

Bol Mel was sanctioned by the United States in 2017 on the grounds that his political relationship with Kiir was securing preferential treatment for construction companies Bol Mel is tied to so that these companies could receive government contracts worth billions of dollars. 

More recently, the source said, the businessman has been leading rapprochement efforts to bring South Sudan closer to the UAE, which has been accused of supplying the RSF with weapons and other forms of support throughout the course of Sudan’s war. In March, Bol Mel traveled to the UAE delivering a message from Kiir to the UAE president. 

Dagalo’s meetings in Juba come in the wake of the abrupt dismissal of Hemedti’s political advisor, Youssef Ezzat. 

Hemedti announced the dismissal on June 10 without disclosing reasons. However, Ezzat stated on X last week that he had asked to resign after a restructuring of the RSF's civil and political operations which saw management responsibilities handed over to Abdel Rahim Dagalo under the new civil coordination council. Ezzat said that he could not work under Abdel Rahim Dagalo’s leadership on principle, stating that as a civilian, he did not operate under military orders and was not part of the RSF’s military forces. Ezaat also cited other reasons for his departure which he promised to reveal later.

An informed RSF source, who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, downplayed the impact of Ezzat’s dismissal on the RSF’s military operations or cohesion.

The source said that Ezzat had no influence over military forces and was disconnected from local communities and tribes in Darfur. His role was limited to political operations and liaising between the RSF and the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), according to the source.

In 2022, before the outbreak of war and during the political talks facilitated by the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), Ezzat appeared in joint sessions with the FFC.

Ezzat's sudden dismissal sparked widespread speculation in Sudanese circles, with some suggesting that Ezzat’s calls to involve Islamists in the political process angered RSF-backing regional powers, prompting them to pressure Hemedti to remove his advisor.

Hours before his dismissal, Ezzat had criticized the “unjustified” absence of “the Sudanese Islamist movement” at the recent Cairo conference for Sudanese political and civil forces. The National Congress Party, which supported the rule of ousted former President Omar Bashir, and other Islamist groups were explicitly excluded from the conference, as per the wish of the Civil Front for Democracy. He said that the Islamic movement “is a significant party in the conflict and a civilian organization with military and social wings, some of which attended the conference.” He argued that allowing the attendance of the National Congress Party’s fronts necessitated the inclusion of the original movement.

In addition to Ezzat’s departure, the RSF recently lost one of its prominent leaders in Darfur and the commander leading the attacks on Fasher, Ali Yacoub, who was killed on June 14. Yacoub was one of the key figures coordinating the recruitment of soldiers and mercenaries by liaising with tribal leaders in the region and neighboring areas in Libya and Chad.

The informed RSF source told Mada Masr that Yacoub's death would negatively impact the RSF, as he was crucial in securing local leaders’ support for mercenary recruitment by providing medical treatment for the tribes’ wounded and compensation for the families of those killed in battles. 

The source said that the RSF alights upon mercenaries, allowing them to profit from looting if they agree to join the RSF ranks. This, coupled with the fear of the conflict spreading to their areas if the RSF is defeated, has fueled local communities’ involvement in the RSF. The RSF, on the other hand, is quick to resolve any disputes with the local communities, the source said, as they are fully aware of the impact on the battlefield and fear retaliatory acts from their victims. 

The source highlighted the role of mercenary recruiters and arms dealers operating particularly in border areas between Libya and Chad, though they noted a decrease in the supply of arms from these regions at present compared to previous periods.

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Military operations continue in Khartoum as hunger looms large

While the intensity of battles may have lessened in the capital Khartoum, the military took steps to advance this week along multiple fronts within Omdurman, one of the three cities that make up the capital.  

According to a field source who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, the military reclaimed several western neighborhoods in the Ombada locality, aiming to capture the entire city and establish extensive checkpoints.

Fighting also continued around the Armored Corps camp in the Shagara military area, south of Khartoum city. A source in the area told Mada Masr that the Armored Corps repelled several RSF attacks, noting that the military has strengthened its defensive positions around the camp and advanced into RSF-held neighborhoods. 

The military is working to create isolated zones to encircle the RSF with the aim of cutting off main roads connecting RSF-controlled areas in southern Khartoum to eastern neighborhoods, the source said.

Meanwhile, RSF artillery shelling in the vicinity of the General Command headquarters and Signal Corps camp has ceased, which the source attributed to the disruption of RSF supply lines from western Sudan.

While electricity was restored in parts of the capital, Khartoum continued to grapple with severe food and water shortages. According to a statement by Khartoum’s South Belt Emergency Room on Thursday, all charity kitchens operating in the area have been compelled to close or are on the verge of closure due to a lack of funding and depleted food supplies. The emergency room warned of a looming famine threatening the majority of residents amid the absence of humanitarian aid.

South Belt Emergency Room spokesperson Mohamed Kandasha told Mada Masr that the shutdown of the 25 charity kitchens in the South Belt area, which provided meals to a vast majority of residents facing income loss and resource scarcity, was due to shortages in funds and depleted food stocks. Kandasha expressed concerns about the potential for famine in the South Belt area in light of the lack of humanitarian assistance for those affected by the conflict.

A member of the East Nile Emergency Room told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that there is an increase in malnutrition cases among children. Over six months, 1,469 cases were reported by the Ban Jadeed Hospital, Um Dawwaban Hospital, Soba East Health Center, Jeref East Medical Clinic, and Sheikh al-Amin Health Center, according to the source.

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Sudan’s economy on the brink of collapse

The Sudanese currency continued its plummet against foreign currencies passing the 2,000 pounds to the dollar mark in recent days.

At the same time, large agricultural areas once relied upon for essential food crops are not being cultivated, exacerbating the impending famine threatening the country.

The exchange rate for the dollar on Sudan’s parallel market soared to reach 2,450 Sudanese pounds this week, compared to the pre-war rate of 560 pounds. Decreased trust in the currency came with a surge in the prices of essential goods and fuel. For instance, a loaf of bread which used to cost 50 to 100 Sudanese pounds before the price surge now costs 128 pounds in some relatively safe states, while in states under RSF control, it can cost up to 200 pounds.

The price of wheat flour also varies across regions, with a sack reaching up to 50,000 pounds in the White Nile, North Kordofan, and Blue Nile states, compared to a more stable 35,000 pounds in northern and eastern Sudan. The official price of a gallon of diesel has surged to 10,000 pounds, equivalent to around US$4.

Banking expert Haitham Fathy told Mada Masr that it is challenging to control the exchange rate at present as funding is diverted to the ongoing war funding and currency is printed. Fathy also noted that Sudanese nationals are increasingly inclined to transfer their savings out of the Sudanese pound and into foreign currencies. 

Fathy put the sudden drop in the pound’s value down to a sudden and organized surge in demand for dollars in the local market, which he said put downward pressure on the exchange value of the pound. However, he said, the surge doesn’t accurately reflect the Sudanese pound’s true value as the increased demand for dollars has been fueled by speculation, he said.

Fathy noted the demand for dollars had dwindled after the outbreak of the war due to stalled commercial activity, a 50-percent drop in imports compared to the pre-war levels, and a near-total halt in exports, a decline in tourism and in Sudanese nationals traveling for medical treatment.

Fathy pointed out that under the current circumstances, the government is also left without effective monetary policy tools to address these fluctuations and intervene directly. The country’s trade deficit is estimated at US$7.5 billion with $11 billion in imports and only $4.5 billion in exports, he said. 

Fathy warned that the ongoing depreciation of the Sudanese pound combined with the unabating war could lead to a severe shortage or a complete absence of essential goods from the market.

Worsening the supply situation is the devastating blow the war has dealt to Sudan’s agricultural sector. The RSF's incursion into Gezira State in December led to the loss of vast agricultural areas during the winter season, in addition to the RSF looting of crops. More recently, the spread of fighting to Sennar State has led to the loss of additional high-yield agricultural projects such as Suki, Abu Naam, and areas like Dali, Mazmum, Dinder, and Rahad. 

Furthermore, the RSF’s recent capture of the strategic Jebel Moya area in Sennar has crippled supply chains to the White Nile and North Kordofan states, creating significant obstacles to obtaining seeds and fuel as the rainy season and summer planting season begin.

The Agricultural Bank of Sudan, which finances agricultural projects, reported a 60-percent decline in the cultivated areas it funds compared to previous years. 

Around 80 percent of Sudan's workforce is engaged in the agricultural sector.

The Sudanese Foreign Ministry accused the RSF and what it described as “their regional sponsors” of attempting to cause a famine in the country in a statement issued Tuesday. The ministry pointed to deliberate and systematic disruption of agricultural activities, intimidation of farmers, destruction of agricultural infrastructure, and looting of agricultural machinery, seeds, and both winter and summer crops.

The ministry said that the ultimate goal of the RSF and its sponsors is to “depopulate production areas and replace residents with the militia’s members and foreign mercenaries.” The statement noted that production in parts of the Gezira Scheme — the world’s largest irrigation project and one of Africa’s largest agricultural projects — had been disrupted for the first time in a century, while the agricultural season in Sennar and Blue Nile states, as well as the Rahad project, is at risk. The ministry called on international and regional entities to stand up to those behind this plan to starve and impoverish the Sudanese people.

A member of the Dinder Emergency Room in Sennar State told Mada Masr this week that the RSF had seized about 200 agricultural tractors, storing them in the villages of Farish and Kamrab. In a statement issued Monday, the emergency room stated that RSF forces looted all agricultural seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides from the villages and farmers' warehouses, jeopardizing the upcoming agricultural season.

Moreover, the Wad Madani resistance committees in Gezira State reported in a press statement on Sunday that RSF forces had stolen thousands of agricultural tools and equipment, fertilizers, and the entire farmers' winter and summer crops, as well as destroyed agricultural infrastructure, sugar plantations in Sennar, and the scheme’s government offices adjacent to southern Gezira.

Even in relatively safer areas, agricultural projects face challenges in financing and obtaining fuel for farming operations. 

A government source told Mada Masr that the government provided 92,000 tons of diesel for the agricultural sector to meet the summer season's needs. The source said that there is a plan targeting the cultivation of 600,000 feddans in the Um al-Qura locality east of Gezira, with an equivalent area in the Qureshi and Managil localities in the western and southwestern parts of Gezira. The source noted that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) had agreed to provide Gezira State with 408 tons of improved maize seeds for these localities.

The FAO announced on Monday the dispatch of seed trucks to South Darfur for distribution to 40,000 farmer households. Previously, the organization reported that Sudan's cereal production had seen a 46 percent drop compared to the 2023 output, 40 percent below the average of the previous five years.

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