Sudan Nashra: Hemedti embarks on 1st regional tour | Burhan-Hemedti meeting uncertain | Citizens being armed

As 2023 draws to a close, Sudan remains engulfed in a devastating conflict that has brought about immense destruction and uncertainty. Since mid-April, the country has been marred by violence, displacement, illness, and hunger, leaving the Sudanese people shattered while prospects for an end to the war appear bleak.

The prospect of a complete collapse in Sudan has begun to loom large since the war entered a new phase with the Rapid Support Forces’ capture of Wad Madani, the country's second-largest city, along with large parts of Gezira State, the fifth state to slip beyond the reach of the Sudanese Armed Forces after four of the states in the Darfur region. The development marks a significant turning point in the seemingly endless war — it delivers a blow to Sudan’s economy, already teetering on the edge, and loosens the grip of the central government.

Calls to arms have been made to the general public under the banner of the Sudanese Popular Resistance' following clashes between a North Kordofan tribe and the RSF, suggesting Sudan is gradually transitioning into a distinct phase in its contemporary history, one that could redraw the map.

The Sudanese public anxiously awaits an overdue meeting between the commander of the Sudanese military and head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his adversary, the leader of the RSF, Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo, scheduled for January. The hope is that this meeting could bring about a ceasefire agreement. In the meantime, military operations persist in the capital city of Khartoum, which, alongside the arming of civilians, is fueling concern among citizens that the war may spill over into new states.c

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Hemedti on first foreign tour

Hemedti made his first publicized foreign visit since the outbreak of the war in mid-April this year. His Wednesday visit to Kampala, where he met with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, saw an exchange of views on strategies to end the conflict in Sudan.

A source from the RSF’s political advisory council told Mada Masr that Hemedti’s visit to Uganda is the first in a scheduled tour of Arab and African states, set to take place over the coming days and aimed at discussing scenarios to end the conflict in the wake of the RSF’s recent field triumphs. The paramilitary group, which controls four of the Darfur region’s five federal states, conducted an operation in the second week of December that saw them take control of Wad Madani, a major city to Khartoum’s south, as well as much of the state the city is in, Gezira.

The RSF leadership is pursuing various avenues to enhance the prospects of peace in Sudan, the paramilitary group’s political advisory source said, adding that they are also due to meet with the country’s former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to explore possibilities for sustainable peace in the country. 

Proceeding with his diplomatic tour, Hemedti arrived in Addis Ababa on Thursday, where he was received by the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen at Bole International Airport.

As for Hemedti's anticipated meeting with Burhan, the source said that arrangements are underway within the RSF leadership, stressing their commitment to implement the outcomes of the last summit held by East African trade bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

Meanwhile, political sources told Mada Masr that Hemedti expressed reservations about holding the meeting in Djibouti, instead requesting Ethiopia or Uganda as alternative venues. He also requested for IGAD heads to attend. 

Hamdok, who represents the Civil Front for Democracy, has sent separate letters to both Burhan and Hemedti, urging them to convene a meeting to reach a prompt ceasefire agreement. 

Burhan, in turn, had agreed on the course of negotiations, as stated during a briefing to his senior military commanders at the Red Sea military base in Port Sudan on December 21.

An invitation for Burhan and Hemedti to meet was issued by IGAD, said a diplomatic source at the Sudanese Foreign Ministry speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. Burhan consented to the meeting, they said, but the IGAD secretariat subsequently said the meeting could not proceed without clarifying why. The Foreign Ministry enquired, but as of Wednesday, the Sudanese government was yet to receive a response.

Regardless, a meeting between the two may not result in a ceasefire. A military source in the Sudanese Armed Forces told Mada Masr that the meeting between Burhan and Hemedti will not impact the course of the battle, as the army is operating a clear military strategy to eliminate the rebellion. 

But, with the situation on the ground growing increasingly worrying, the military source said that new structural processes will be required to establish definitive control. It will require a departure from the current approach, they said, describing the ongoing situation as region-based, leaving space for the rebellion to advance where a central administration would not. 

The source added that military supply is still unaffected and will not affect the course of its battle against the rebellion, irrespective of whether Burhan and Hemedti meet.

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Civilians armed amid concerns that war will spread to Sinnar

The RSF’s capture of Wad Madani and large parts of the Gezira State, which is adjacent to the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, has instilled fear among residents in unaffected states. Consequently, members of the public are taking arms in the White Nile, Gadarif, Kassala, Nile River, Red Sea and Northern states under the banner of popular resistance.

It is a step taken following the targeting of dozens of civilians by the RSF in villages and cities in Gezira State, as stated by some of the figures leading the movement, including prominent individuals and tribal leaders in the Nile River State. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they emphasized the community's need to be prepared to defend itself.

Military division commanders have also supervised the arming of members of the public, said a source in the Sudanese military intelligence speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, adding that arming the population had been ongoing for a long time. The military did not directly arm the citizens, the source said, but rather confiscated and registered weapons already owned by members of the public, issuing personal permits to holders so that they can defend their properties against any potential attacks.

In late June, Burhan issued a call to all Sudanese youth, urging them to bear arms or join the army to defend their country against what he described as “greed endangering its existence.” 

Another source in the Sudanese Armed Forces speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity said that the popular resistance varies in each region, depending on the military’s assessment of the threats and social concerns. The military is aware of the risk entailed, especially considering that it is not common for members of the public to own weapons, the SAF source said, adding that most of the weapons in question are light and intended for personal protection. As for residents of areas that have seen social uprisings due to fear of incursion by the RSF, the source said they already possess personal weapons.

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Ongoing RSF attacks on Wad Madani and Gezira

The city of Wad Madani and over 400 villages in the Gezira State are enduring daily attacks by RSF militants. According to the resident of a village in southern Gezira speaking to Mada Masr anonymously, the troops were led by RSF commander Abu Agla Keikel. 

Keikel, originally from the Gezira State, joined the RSF several months after the outbreak of the war, and was appointed commander of Wad Madani’s First Division after the city’s fall. Despite Keikel’s assurances that personal and public properties would be spared, RSF troops stormed several houses and seized residents’ cars at gunpoint a mere two hours after his departure.

In the northern region of Gezira, the city of al-Hasahisa and the adjacent villages were left at the mercy of the RSF following the withdrawal of the army and police on December 18, according to a source from the city’s resistance committees who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. Factories were completely looted and around 1,800 cars, including those owned by government institutions, were stolen. The road connecting Khartoum to Wad Madani was used to transport stolen goods from various cities and villages, especially from southern Gezira. During the first days of the battles, residents relocated their cars from Wad Madani to these villages, making them prime targets for the RSF’s looting activities, according to the source. 

The looting of public and personal property has persisted in recent days. Al-Junaid Sugar Factory in the southern region of Gezira has been completely plundered, the plant’s general director told Mada Masr. Additionally, the Gezira Scheme, the largest agricultural project in Sudan and Sub-Saharan Africa, was forced to come to a complete halt due to the RSF’s looting of crops, fertilizers, agricultural tractors and vehicles, according to a source on the project’s board of directors.

This marks the first time in 98 years that the Gezira Scheme has been completely shut down. Established in 1925, the Gezira Scheme provides employment opportunities and ensures food security for about 2 million people, according to a source from the Agriculture Ministry.

The situation has also had a severe impact on the healthcare system. A medical source at Gezira’s Health Ministry told Mada Masr that around 750 healthcare centers and hospitals have been rendered inoperable due to ongoing violations by the RSF. This has led to a health crisis, with health services unavailable in six out of seven localities. Approximately 450,000 patients in the state are now at risk of being deprived of essential healthcare. Several individuals, especially kidney dialysis and cancer patients, have lost their lives due to the absence of medical services caused by the vandalism and looting of hospitals. 

A field source within the RSF admitted to widespread looting of citizens’ property by the militia, adding that Keikel, who was appointed superintendent of the Gezira State, has been unable to control the forces or manage security breaches and violations. The RSF source described this as a side-effect of Keikel’s weak personality, saying that there is no one capable of stopping the ongoing vandalism at present and that the RSF command is incapable of providing a solution under the current circumstances. Originally, the purpose of capturing Gezira was to execute a targeted military operation, namely eliminating the First Division without causing damage to any facilities. But the exact opposite happened, the source said, holding Keikel directly accountable.

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Military operations in Obeid, RSF kills a tribal leader

The Sudanese military has successfully ousted RSF combatants stationed in west and northwest of Obeid city in North Kordofan State, according to a military source from the Fifth Division of the Sudanese army, known as al-Haggana (camel cavalry), stationed in the area. 

The western side of Obeid has been a significant military threat, as RSF forces previously used it as a base for launching Katyusha attacks and attempted invasions. The city has been under siege for five months, with the RSF attempting to isolate it from the rest of the region. Currently, Obeid holds great importance for the Sudanese Armed Forces, as the Fifth Division represents the strongest infantry force in the country. 

Over the course of two days, the army launched multiple attacks on the RSF’s defenses in the west.

Eyewitnesses in Obeid have described a period of stability as a result of the army’s expanded operations beyond its borders. 

The RSF killed a tribal leader and attempted to assault civilians on Wednesday, said a local source from the Dar Hamid tribe, based in the North Kordofan State. In response, the tribe mobilized its fighters, launching an attack on the force responsible for the tribal leader’s death, inflicting around 20 casualties. They also managed to seize a number of vehicles and motorcycles.

Despite these events, the Kordofan and Darfur regions have experienced relative calm as RSF combat operations heightened in central Sudan, specifically in Gezira. A military source stated that the temporary lull in military operations in the western part of the country is allowing the Sudanese Armed Forces to reposition and transition from a defensive to an offensive stance. The source anticipated that military operations in the west would not cease easily, even if a ceasefire agreement was reached. This is due to the complex interplay of societal and tribal factors, as well as the fact that some states serve as transit points for RSF fighters, making them prone to clashes with the local population, according to the source.

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Army expands military operations in Khartoum, armed groups stationed in east Sudan

The Sudanese army has escalated its military operations in the capital city of Khartoum, intensifying its artillery shelling and launching airstrikes using drones in key areas where the RSF are stationed. These include the neighborhoods of Riyadh and Maamura, as well as the Bahri region north of Khartoum. Furthermore, sporadic military operations have also been reported in Omdurman, located west of the capital, on both December 24 and 25.

A military field source within the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum told Mada Masr that the objective of these military operations, employing artillery and drones, is to target the RSF’s artillery, as well as the areas where the militia are positioned. The source also predicts that the capital will witness a surge in both high-impact and concentrated military operations across various regions.

Moving to the eastern part of the country, a military force of around 6,000 fighters from the joint forces of the armed groups in Darfur has been deployed at the central reserve camp in the state of Kassala. The force has been assigned two tasks: preventing arms smuggling and collaborating with the Sudanese Armed Forces to secure areas under threat.

The eastern states of Sudan are currently facing a military threat following the incursion of the RSF into Wad Madani, which connects the eastern and central regions of Sudan. Military sources warn that if the RSF manage to penetrate the states of Sinnar and Gadarif, the eastern states could potentially find themselves under siege by the militia.

Days before the RSF captured Wad Madani, the intelligence unit of the 11th Division in the Khashm al-Girba area of the Eastern Military Region announced that they had foiled an attempt to smuggle two weapon shipments to the RSF in Khartoum through the Butana plain and the Atbara River locality from an undisclosed neighboring country. 

More than 20 RSF combat vehicles infiltrated the Um Shadida area and the villages of Wad Bashara in the Butana locality of the Kassala State in eastern Sudan and attacked a police station in early December. Military sources told Mada Masr that an RSF force led by Keikel arrived in Um Shadida with the objective of receiving a shipment of weapons and ammunition and delivering it to Khartoum.

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Budget yet to be unannounced amid economy’s collapse

Sudanese economic analyst Mohamed al-Nair predicts that the budget for 2024 will not be announced by the end of December, as all indications suggest that it has not yet been prepared.

Nair told Mada Masr that, under normal circumstances, “budget directives are issued in July or September at the latest. However, this year, they were issued in the second half of last month, which means that the budget for 2024 will not be announced by the end of December.”

He added that the previous year’s budget was inflated compared to the year before, with total estimates reaching 8 trillion Sudanese pounds, equivalent to US$8 billion, while estimates for 2022 were less than $3 billion, despite lifting fuel subsidies, and tax, tariff and custom increases.

Nair said that the increase in the last budget was too vast, exceeding the usual rates of no more than 5-15 percent. The budget for 2023 did not achieve its planned performance, barely reaching 50 percent. He therefore called for a more realistic and achievable budget for the upcoming year, taking into account the country’s ongoing war and its impact on the winter season, trade, and manufacturing. 

Regarding expectations of Sudan receiving external support for the budget, he said that it is best for budget financing to be internal, pointing out that there are many stable and secure Sudanese states that are functioning well, as well as seaports that are engaged in imports and exports and have not been affected by the war conditions. He added that there is continuous gold production, in addition to many factors that fundamentally support the preparation and approval of a budget.

He added that Sudan has lost its hope for external support, citing its negative experiences with the international community. Therefore, relying on external assistance should not be considered a viable option, according to Nair. 

In a related context, Nair warned of a further deterioration in the value of the Sudanese pound if the central bank fails to implement strict measures to preserve its value.

However, he ruled out the possibility of changing the currency at the present time due to the high cost and time factor. Instead, he suggested that the central bank discontinue the circulation of the 500 and 1000 pound denominations in commercial transactions, accepting them only in the banking system. Nar believes this measure would facilitate the tracking of illegally acquired funds.