Sudan Nashra: Burhan’s assassination attempt | Asmara expels Sudan’s acting ambassador | Flash floods submerge shelter camps in Kassala

In a week marked by an assassination attempt on Sudan’s de facto leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Fasher endured intense shelling by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) while fighting persists in Sennar as the RSF attempts to capture the strategic border state. 

On Wednesday, Burhan, who heads Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council and Armed Forces, narrowly survived a drone assassination attempt at the Jebeit military area during a graduation ceremony for the first cohort of military college graduates since the onset of the war. 

Meanwhile, in Sennar State, fighting persists in Suki and villages surrounding Sennar, one of the major cities still under military control. Two military sources told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the city is unlikely to fall easily due to military preparedness and the challenging terrain during the rainy season, which hampers vehicle movement. However, the RSF is mobilizing near Sennar and the neighboring White Nile State.

Thousands displaced by the fighting in Sennar over the past month to shelters in Kassala State are now facing further hardships brought on by flash floods. Heavy rains over the week have submerged some of Kassala’s shelter camps, directly impacting over 10,000 displaced persons. 

In Omdurman, west of the capital Khartoum, the military has bolstered its forces with substantial reinforcements for the ongoing operations. 

In Darfur’s capital of Fasher, heavy RSF shelling caused around 100 deaths. Meanwhile, the joint force — the military-aligned unit composed of members from the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan People’s Liberation movement — is mobilizing behind the RSF’s rear lines west and east of Fasher, in an attempt to cut off their supply lines. 

On the diplomatic front, Eritrea expelled Sudan's acting ambassador, Khaled Abbas, on July 24, without disclosing the reasons. While Sudanese government and diplomatic sources who spoke to Mada Masr are divided on the motives behind this move, only a few days later, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki dispatched warships to Port Sudan on July 26, reaffirming Eritrea’s support for the Sudanese military.

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Burhan targeted by long-range drone strikes

During a military parade marking the graduation of the 68th cohort of the Sudanese War College students, as well as the 20th and 23rd classes of the Air Force and Navy colleges, two suicide drones exploded near a platform where Burhan was present. The attack, a failed assassination attempt, resulted in the deaths of at least five military personnel, including a colonel, a noncommissioned officer, and three newly commissioned lieutenants among the graduates.

Jebeit, located about 100 kilometers southeast of Port Sudan, houses an infantry division and an officer training institute. It serves as the first line of defense for Port Sudan, which has become the country’s administrative capital after the outbreak of the war, with government institutions relocating there following the collapse of Khartoum and the RSF’s takeover of significant areas.

A military source in Jebeit told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the two drones are similar to those employed by the RSF. 

In a press release on Wednesday, the Sudanese Armed Forces spokesperson’s office stated that the military’s defenses intercepted the drones.

However, the military source noted that, while the armed forces’ defenses responded, the site’s terrain impeded shooting the drones down.

Two hours after the attack, the military posted a video showing Burhan at the Jebeit military base. According to a source from the presidential guard, Burhan was unharmed and chose to stay in Jebeit to inspect the base. The source added that the military had launched an investigation into the attack on Wednesday. The source asserted that the RSF, with its military and political leadership, are the only group with an interest in eliminating Burhan, noting that this was not the first attempt on his life, with previous attempts in Shendi and Gadarif in the past three months.

A Sudanese military industry engineer told Mada Masr that these drones operate within a range of around 500 kilometers, and that they had been employed before in Gadarif, Damer, Jebeit and Shendi within this range, indicating they are less advanced than those possessed by the military.

In Kosti city in the White Nile State, southern Sudan, the RSF carried out several drone attacks on July 29, according to a source from the military’s 18th Infantry Division. The source said the military’s defenses intercepted around nine drones, some of which crashed near the General Intelligence Service’s headquarters, resulting in one death. The remaining drones were downed without causing any damage.

In Damer, the capital of the River Nile State in northern Sudan, two drones targeted government buildings but were intercepted, with no damage incurred, according to a state government source who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. This marks the fifth RSF drone attack on the state, the source said. 

In March, a drone attack targeted a Ramadan iftar gathering of the Islamist-affiliated Baraa ibn Malik Brigade, which fights alongside the military, resulting in multiple casualties. 

In April, four RSF drones targeted the Third Division camp in Shendi but were also intercepted. The city was targeted again on July 10, and, likewise, the camp’s air defenses responded.

The engineer said that the RSF uses a number of modified drones for attacks on Khartoum, while employing Chinese suicide drones for attacks on other cities. 

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Military operations in Sennar

Sennar city, the capital of Sennar State, which has been caught up in the war since June, remains in a precarious state as the Sudanese Armed Forces continues to fight for one of the major cities still under their control. 

The military’s defenses in three areas around the city have seen clashes involving both light and heavy weaponry.

On July 27 and the 28th, scattered skirmishes took place at the Doba and Arab bridges, which connect the city to the northern and eastern parts of the state. The RSF attempted to gain control of the bridges leading into the city but failed .

The RSF scored a significant victory in early July when they took the state’s capital, Singa, complicating the military’s efforts to retake neighboring Gezira. 

In Gezira, the RSF has been amassing its forces in the state’s capital of Wad Madani for the battles in Sennar. The forces are led by Abu Agla Keikel, who assumed command over military operations after the RSF field commander in Blue Nile and Sennar, Abdel Rahman al-Bishi, was killed in battle on July 19.

However, military operations have waned along Gezira’s fronts. A military source in Sennar State told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the armed forces are working to advance in key fronts in Sennar, such as Jebel Moya and the road leading to White Nile State.

The source noted that military airstrikes in Gezira State over the past few weeks have disrupted combat supplies to the RSF, although they have not completely halted their operations. Nonetheless, they have significantly aided the military's progress, according to the source.

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RSF shells Fasher, 100 killed 

In western Sudan, the RSF continued to shell Fasher throughout the week. A medical source in the city told Mada Masr that the death toll has reached 100 over the course of the last week due to the RSF's use of artillery and long-range rocket launchers, as well as incendiary bombs.

The medical source said that the shelling has caused severe second-degree burns among civilians in the city’s northern and eastern neighborhoods.

The source added that the RSF has been shelling the city indiscriminately to force residents to evacuate. However, according to a state government source who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, displacement from the city has decreased as ground attacks have been halted for several weeks.

A military source from the joint force, who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, explained the lull in fighting by suggesting that the RSF is preparing for a renewed assault on the city in the near future and is mobilizing forces with the goal of capturing Fasher.

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Sudanese government announces stance on Swiss talks

The Sudanese government has announced that it will not engage in any negotiations until the outcomes of the Jeddah talks are implemented, given that the topics and parties are the same. While expressing appreciation for US efforts in calling for ceasefire talks in Switzerland, the government voiced reservations about the format of the invitation and called for preparatory meetings with the US to agree on the agenda and participants. 

A diplomatic source from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the government believes that the invitation should have included preparatory consultations before the sessions. The source added that the US deliberately omitted reference to the Sudanese government and did not address Burhan as the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council.

The source stressed that the government's decision is final, and no agenda can be imposed upon it, adding that both the military and the government are unified in their position regarding the Swiss talks.

On Wednesday, during the graduation ceremony in Jebeit, Burhan reiterated the government’s commitment to peace but stressed that the military will not participate in the talks in Switzerland, asserting that Sudan maintains sovereignty over its own issues and that the military does not fight alone.

According to a source in the Darfur Government who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, the region’s governor Minni Arko Minnawi has informed Burhan that the armed movements who signed the Juba peace agreement oppose the fragmentation of Sudan’s issues, see themselves as defenders of the state and should be at the forefront of advocating for national concerns. According to the source, Minnawi stated that said armed movements believe that sending the military to Geneva alone would constitute a division of Sudan.

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Asmara expels Sudan’s acting ambassador

In a sudden development, Eritrea announced the expulsion of Sudanese acting ambassador Khaled Abbas, giving him 72 hours to leave Asmara without disclosing the reasons for the decision. The Sudanese government has yet to officially comment.

A source in the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the decision is related to issues concerning the acting ambassador rather than the Sudanese government as a whole. Another diplomatic source told Mada Masr that Eritrea’s move seems to express dissatisfaction with Sudan’s growing ties with Ethiopia and its continued hosting of Eritrean regime opponents from the Tigrayan people. The decision suggests that the Eritrean government found substantive reasons to voice its displeasure with Sudanese-Ethiopian rapprochement without escalating into a full-blown diplomatic crisis, the source added. 

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki had previously expressed full support for the Sudanese military in its fight against the RSF. He also issued decrees to grant Sudanese citizens free entry visas and exemption from residency fees in his country.

In February, Afwerki met with members of the mobilized forces in Gezira State and condemned the RSF’s capture of Wad Madani. He then pledged to supply them with 10,000 Kalashnikov rifles and vowed to prevent RSF fighters from approaching border cities and regions.

Even amid the expulsion of the Sudanese acting ambassador and the ensuing controversy, the Sudanese military announced on July 26 that it had received military warships from the Eritrean Navy. The military stated that the dispatch aligns with Afwerki’s directives, while the head of the Eritrean delegation stated that their visit reaffirms Eritrea’s support for Sudan during these challenging times.

Political activist in eastern Sudan Haitham Kiryai told Mada Masr that the expulsion of the Sudanese ambassador followed Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Port Sudan and his meeting with Burhan, which aimed to resolve the stalemate in relations between the two countries.

Kiryai said that Asmara perceives itself as the sole neighboring state to openly support the Sudanese military against the RSF and wants to signal concern that Sudan’s rapprochement with Ethiopia could lead to regional instability.

He suggested that the arrival of Eritrean warships in Sudanese ports sends a dual message to the Sudanese military: affirming support in the war and signaling opposition to Sudan’s warming of relations with Abiy Ahmed's regime. Kiryai pointed out that Afwerki’s government is aware of its strategic influence in eastern Sudan.

Tensions between Asmara and Addis Ababa have escalated since Addis Ababa’s signing of a peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022, Kiryai said. According to Kiryai, Eritrea sees the move as unilateral, given that Asmara, alongside Addis Ababa, had previously committed to eliminate the movement. 

Consequently, Eritrean positions have grown increasingly hostile, Kiryai added, particularly regarding the issue of Somaliland ports. Recently, the Eritrean government announced the closure of its airspace to Ethiopian Airlines.

According to Kiryai, Eritrea, which borders Sudan to the east, hosts several training camps for various Sudanese tribal groups and armed movements from eastern Sudan. Recently, thousands of new soldiers have completed their training at these camps, including camps for forces affiliated with the Sudan Liberation Movement (Minnawi).

The main factions among eastern Sudanese tribal groups are the Popular Front for Liberation and Justice led by Amin Dawood, the Eastern Sudan Liberation Movement under Ibrahim “Dunya” Abdullah, and the group led by Betay, a descendant of the Hamashkoreib elders.

“The forces trained in Eritrea consist of two groups: one affiliated with the Beni Amer tribe and the other with the Jemalab al-Hadandawa,” Kiryai said regarding the Sudanese forces receiving military training in Eritrea.

“I don’t believe these forces currently have any significant impact. According to our communication with some members, they claim to remain neutral between the military and the RSF and will only engage in combat if attacked by the RSF or in the event of chaos in the region, with the aim of protecting civilians, property and land from any disruption,” he added.

Kiryai described these forces in Eritrea as an extension of Afwerki’s influence in eastern Sudan, lacking autonomy and under the complete control of the Eritrean regime. He suggested that the Eritrean regime keeps these forces as political leverage, rather than for direct military action.

He further noted that forces affiliated with Minnawi's SLM had previously received training in Eritrea and were then summoned to fight alongside the Sudanese military. However, when Minnawi asked the other groups from eastern Sudan to join the battle, they refused, according to Kiryai, at Afwerki’s behest.

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Flash floods submerge shelter camps in Kassala

Last week, heavy rains flooded several displacement camps and neighborhoods in Kassala. The Sudan News Agency reported that Kassala Governor Sadig Mohamed al-Azrag conducted an inspection tour, accompanied by the Humanitarian Aid Commissioner and UN and Kassala government officials, assessing the shelters and neighborhoods affected by the floods

The inspection tour included the displacement camp at the industrial school in Kassala city, which was completely flooded, forcing families to take to the streets. 

The governor emphasized the state’s efforts to find alternative, safer sites to relocate displaced persons from the affected shelters. He noted that an area west of Kassala Airport was donated to set up a new camp for individuals from the industrial school shelter.

According to Kassala’s emergency supreme committee, the number of registered displaced families in the state exceeded 80,000, in addition to other families outside the shelters, bringing the total figure to over 200,000 families. The committee stated that the influx of displaced persons exceeded the state's capacity.