Sudan Nashra: Armed Forces receive new military equipment and vehicles | Doubling down on military resolution

As the war in Sudan — which erupted as a power struggle between Sudanese Armed Forces Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti" in mid-April — stretches into its 10th month, a political solution to the crisis has become increasingly distant as all parties are doubling down on a military resolution.

Burhan, whose forces have been receiving new military equipment and combat vehicles, according to military sources who spoke to Mada Masr, stands on one side, as the armed forces continue to advance on multiple fronts, even amid their notable setbacks in recent months. On the other side, Hemedti, who now relies on the pressure imposed by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), faces the most severe military strikes against his forces since fighting began in mid-April.

This comes after the Transitional Sovereignty Council's refusal to participate in the extraordinary IGAD summit held today in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. 

Burhan's rhetoric seems to be changing to match the ratched up military strategy, adopting a more stern tone than his statements in the early months of the war.

Burhan has shifted from calling for a negotiated solution to giving a recent speech in Jebit in the Red Sea State in which he mobilized the full force of militaristic language. Similarly, there have been shifts in the language used by the Foreign Ministry and the Transitional Sovereignty Council, transitioning from pleas to boycotts.

On the ground, the situation in the Kordofan and Darfur regions has become more complicated as military mobilization reaches its peak. Following the recent Dalang battles in which the military repelled the RSF, Sherya, the commander of the RSF in South Kordofan, is mobilizing his forces to attack the city, the state's second-largest after its capital, Kadugli.

Meanwhile, the situation in Babanusa, in West Kordofan State, has also changed. Prominent civilian leaders from the area, which sits on the border with South Sudan, met with Hemedti in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, urging the RSF to refrain from engaging the military command in the area due to the important role the armed forces play in border protection. 

In Omdurman, the largest of the three cities that make up the Sudanese capital, the Sudanese military is making slow progress — a testament to the hurdles they are facing and the investment they have made to seize control of the city — across three fronts of fierce fighting that have raged on for the past two months.

As for Gezira State, adjacent to the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, the armed forces remain discreet about their movements and strikes after coordinating their military operations in the region at the beginning of the year, according to military sources that spoke to Mada Masr. The RSF made major advances in Gezira State at the close of last year, seizing control of Wad Madani in a stunning takeover that saw a mysterious military withdrawal. The military is moving in a coordinated manner from two directions in Gezira State, both to the south and southeast.

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The government suspends its engagement with IGAD | Burhan accepts the Civil Front for Democracy’s invitation

A few days after Djibouti extended its invitation to the Sudanese government, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali al-Sadig announced in a statement that the government informed their Djiboutian counterpart, the president of the IGAD Council of Ministers, that the Sudanese government has decided to suspend engagement with IGAD and freeze its dealings regarding the current crisis in Sudan, citing several reasons. 

The first reason listed is what the Sudanese government sees as IGAD overstepping its rightful role in its holding of an extraordinary summit in Uganda today putting the “Sudan issue” on the agenda without consulting the government. The statement also highlighted IGAD’s disregard for the Sudanese government’s position on implementing the outcomes of the previous IGAD summit, which the government saw as a violation of Sudan's sovereignty. Secondly, the government expressed concern over the serious precedent set by inviting Hemedti to attend the emergency summit.

A source at the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that IGAD's lack of commitment and what they described as an attempt to “play on contradictions” is the reason behind the government's position. The source noted that IGAD has deviated from previous commitments, disregarding the consequences of aligning with the RSF and its leader. The source added that the decision is also a result of the attempt by some countries and governments within IGAD to diverge from the bloc’s traditions and norms, which were initially shaped by Sudan’s initiative and role in the bloc. 

The source asserted that the government's position is clear, as stated by Burhan, who said that they are open accepting all initiatives as long as Sudan's sovereignty is preserved and previous commitments are implemented, which the RSF is trying to evade.

Another source from the Transitional Sovereign Council who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity said that the government's actions are in line with Burhan's speech, wherein he expressed openness to peace and all proposed initiatives. However, Burhan emphasized that these initiatives must work toward implementing what the parties have agreed upon, stating that the government does not object to a ceasefire, provided that the RSF commits to withdrawing from civilian areas, institutions, and citizens' homes. The source explained that they have reneged on these conditions and are trying to circumvent them through their maneuvers, which only indicate their intention to prolong the conflict.

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Military operations in Omdurman, RSF advances northward

Military battles in the city of Omdurman, west of Khartoum, have taken a new turn as the military has started to gain control over new neighborhoods in the city center. However, the advance has been slow in central positions near the old Omdurman market, north of the Engineers Corps. 

The military developments coincided with a speech by Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces Yasser al-Atta, in which he announced the deployment of new troops to join the war against the RSF. 

During his speech at the Wadi Seidna airbase on January 14, Atta indicated that Burhan had met all the requirements requested by the region's leadership. He also said that Burhan had made commitments to fulfill additional military obligations to the forces in the near future. 

Atta's remarks followed recent changes in the leadership of the Karrari and Omdurman military regions — Lieutenant General Adam Haroun, the former head of the Sudanese Military Academy and former commander of ground forces operations, was appointed as the commander of the Wadi Seidna military region.

From a military standpoint, central Omdurman represents a strategic area for the military amid the ongoing street battles. By gaining control over this area, the military will be able to prevent any attempt by the RSF to attack the armed forces’ most important military base in the northern part of the city — Wadi Seidna. Military sources in the Engineers Corps told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that connecting the Engineers Corps with central Omdurman and the Wadi Seidna military base will enable the armed forces to fully secure the western part of Khartoum State.

A field military source told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the armed forces’ battles in central Omdurman have seen the establishment of multiple military checkpoints in the neighborhoods under their control. This marks the first instance of the military setting up such checkpoints during the war. 

On the other hand, as the military attempts to gain control of Omdurman — the RSF main supply line from the west, artillery shelling persists in several neighborhoods east of Khartoum, as well as in the vicinity of the Signal Corps in Bahri.

According to a military source at the Sudanese General Command in central Khartoum, the armed forces are advancing with a clear strategy in the Omdurman axis. They are also targeting the RSF-held areas in southern Khartoum and combing areas in Gabra.

A field source in the Armored Corps in the Shajara military region, south of Khartoum, told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the Special Operations Forces of the Armored Corps have managed to gain control of several neighborhoods.

As for Gezira State, Hossam Zuelnoon, a former officer in the Sudanese National Democratic Alliance forces, which had fought the Sudanese military in the 1990s, hailing from Eritrea, believes that the entry of the RSF into Gezira State has led to unfavorable results. Consequently, this has put significant pressure on the military and its leadership, who acquiesced to citizens’ demands to arm the popular resistance.

Zuelnoon added that the situation in Gezira State has prompted a shift from the armed forces’ previous strategy, which aimed to neutralize the RSF’s military capabilities without completely halting their advancements.

In the past week, the outlines of the new military strategy have become clear, with a shift from a defensive to offensive posture that has seen the armed forces launch operations to seize RSF positions. Warplanes and drones have also carried out airstrikes on various RSF locations with greater intensity and impact. This has resulted in a significant operational change on the ground in favor of the military.

Zuelnoon believes that the RSF’s practices, including widespread violations, looting and killings of civilians in war-affected states, coupled with their evident tribal and ethnic biases, are pushing other Sudanese groups to arm themselves out of a fear that the RSF will seize and occupy their land. 

He also underlined that these two factors have made tribal and regional polarization against the RSF transcend differences with the government, as was the case in the city of Dalang. He pointed out that the previous conflict revolved around power and equitable wealth distribution, whereas the conflict with the RSF is a struggle for existence and survival.

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Hagar and Idris fail to enter Fasher, Babanusa city on the line

A source familiar with the armed movements’ joint force in the city of Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State, told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the recent visit by former members of the Transitional Sovereignty Council and leaders of rebel armed movements, Al-Hadi Idris and Abu Bakr Hagar, did not yield the expected results. They were unable to enter Fasher or meet with the field or military leaders of the joint force.

Their visit to the state last week came against the backdrop of a meeting of the joint force leadership in Fasher — the city the RSF failed to enter.

Another source in the joint force told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the purpose of the visit was nothing more than an attempt to sow division within the joint force by proposing the removal of the military from the city.

A source in the Darfur Regional Government told Mada Masr, on condition of anonymity, that the joint force was established to achieve security and stability for the region’s citizens. They said that the attempt to drag the joint force into political conflicts and narrow-minded agendas by former leaders is unacceptable and demonstrates a lack of responsibility. The Darfur Regional Government, led by Minni Arko Minnawi, along with the joint force, deemed the visit of Hagar and Idris an attempt to thwart the region's residents' ambition to achieve security and stability, the source added.

According to an informed source in Fasher, military leaders in the city, as well as leaders of the armed movements, issued warnings to Hagar and Idris, advising them against entering the city. They have also stated that they have no objection to them remaining outside the city and that there is no intention to initiate any military action against them. It has also been stated that they are welcome within the bounds of customs and traditions extended to any individual from the region. However, there will be no tolerance for any disturbance that affects the city and its security, the source said.  

Mubarak Bakhit, the secretary of Presidential Affairs in the Sudan Liberation Forces Alliance, led by Hagar, told Mada Masr that the majority of the convening political forces openly endorse the war. Bakhit considers Hagar and Idris' visit to North Darfur State as routine given their positions, emphasizing that the battlefield is their natural place. He added that after one party failed to persuade the two leaders to align with them in the war, they attempted to pressure them, initiating political character assassinations via media outlets. Bakhit also dismissed the discussion about the military’s withdrawal from Fasher as mere talk in the press.

Burhan, head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, had issued two separate constitutional decrees in November, through which he dismissed Idris and Hagar from the council. Both had assumed their positions in February 2021, in accordance with the Juba Peace Agreement. 

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In West Kordofan state, Hemedti met with the civil dignitaries in the region to discuss the military and social conditions. The leaders of the Messiria tribe, which has been embroiled in a conflict over their rights in the disputed region of Abyei with South Sudan since South Sudan's secession from Sudan in July 2011, have taken a different stance. According to a community leader in the Messiria and a statement issued by the tribe, a copy of which Mada Masr obtained, the tribal leaders emphasized in the meeting that the RSF should refrain from engaging their military command in Babanusa city, given the command’s crucial role in protecting the southern borders with South Sudan against attacks by gangs and criminals coming from within South Sudan toward the border areas with Sudan.

A local source in West Kordofan State, speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, said that the overall situation in the state is stable and does not warrant concern at present but urged the RSF to avoid any unrest with the arrival of military operations to the city. 

The local source asserts that the call to keep military operations away from important cities and the state is a request for stability, social peace, and the prevention of destruction of infrastructure. It is also out of fear that military operations could lead to the destruction of oil wells in the state, resulting in severe pollution that would be highly challenging to address.

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Sexual violence in Gezira State

The Unit for Combating Violence Against Women and Children published a statement on Wednesday to note that it had received documented reports indicating at least two cases of sexual violence in Gezira State following the RSF’s takeover in mid-December.

The report stated that, while there are other cases that could not be verified due to the deteriorating security situation, the unit has confirmed instances of RSF members threatening sexual violence and extortion in various areas.

In the report, the unit expressed its concern regarding the expansion of the RSF into villages and cities in Gezira State, stating that it poses a direct threat to women and girls who have been unable to leave the state.

The report condemned the RSF’s expansion of the war zone and the subsequent increase in violations against civilians. It warned that, with the widening of the conflict, Sudan will not be a safe place for women and girls.

The report urged institutions and individuals to reach out to the unit to ensure the official documentation of violations and their submission to international and regional organizations. It also called on the United Nations and relevant international and regional organizations concerned with women’s rights to fulfill their obligations by pressuring the RSF’s leaders to comply with international humanitarian law, halt the violations committed by their members against women and girls in areas under their control and ensure that perpetrators are held accountable.