Sudan Nashra: RSF, Hamdok’s civil front sign declaration | Kordofan tribes mobilize to cut off RSF supplies | Blinken to attend Hemedti-Burhan meeting

As the Sudanese people rang in the new year, marking the 68th anniversary of their national independence, their country remains embroiled in a devastating war for the ninth consecutive month. The conflict has engulfed four regions, including the tri-city capital.

The commemoration of Sudan's independence comes at a time when the fate of the third-largest African nation hangs in the balance, with divergent political stances that may further complicate the situation.

In the strategic region of Kordofan, located in the central and southwestern parts of the country, several tribes have signed a charter aimed at cutting off supply routes for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) coming from Darfur, Kordofan, or returning from Khartoum. Additionally, tribes in central Sudan, particularly the Batahin and Shukriya, have mobilized their members in critical areas that serve as supply routes for weapons destined for Khartoum through southern and southwestern smuggling routes, following the military’s targeting of western routes and tribe mobilization in the plains of Kordofan.

Simultaneously, the Sudanese military has been steadily advancing in the city of Omdurman, one of the three cities that make up the capital, Khartoum. A new alliance has emerged between the Sudanese Armed Forces and some armed movements, as retired military officers that had joined the Darfuri rebel groups have been reintegrated into the armed forces.

RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo held a two-day high profile meeting with the Civil Front for Democracy, led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, earlier this week, which concluded with the signing of the Addis Ababa Declaration. The Civil Front for Democracy announced its readiness to convene a similar meeting, pending the military’s approval, with the aim of seeking a peaceful resolution to the ongoing armed conflict.

However, the Sudanese military, which has faced significant setbacks in the field in recent weeks that have weakened its political and military standing, continues to view a military solution as the key pathway to an end to the war. The RSF continues to seek to impose its own political conditions in pursuit of a resolution, which include delegitimizing the military’s position as the head of the state, a point of insistence that  Hemedti reemphasized during a recorded speech on the occasion of Sudan’s independence anniversary.

Meanwhile, the proposed meeting between Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and his adversary, Hemedti, remains shrouded in mystery. Hemedti, who embarked on foreign tours at the end of last month, concluded his fourth stop in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, following visits to Uganda, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.

While hopes are pinned on the delayed meeting, originally scheduled for the end of last month but now set for the first week of January, reports of RSF violations in the Gezira State, south of Khartoum, are on the rise. These violations include the destruction of Gezira University, one of Sudan's largest and finest universities, founded in the mid-1970s.

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Hemedti meets with the delegation from the Civil Front for Democracy

Following his foreign tour, where he visited three African countries, Hemedti met with leaders of the Civil Front for Democracy in response to an invitation from its president and former Prime Minister, Abdalla Hamdok, who was ousted by Burhan and Hemedti in the October 2021 coup. 

The meeting took place over two days, Monday and Tuesday, in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. The Civil Front for Democracy’s delegation consisted of its prominent leaders, while the RSF delegation was led by Hemedti, along with the head of its negotiating team in the Jeddah talks, Omar Hamdan and Hemedti's chief political advisers. This meeting was followed by closed-door talks that resulted in the signing of an agreement between the RSF and the Civil Front for Democracy, known as the Addis Ababa Declaration.

On Wednesday, the Civil Front for Democracy’s delegation led by Hamdok convened with the Djiboutian president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, with the objective of resolving the crisis in Sudan and restoring peace. 

A senior source within the leadership of the RSF told Mada Masr, on condition of anonymity, that their communication with the political forces calling for an end to the war has remained uninterrupted, noting that they had previously met with them at the invitation of the African Union. The source added that they consider any political forces advocating for an end to the war as partners. 

The Addis Ababa outcomes were the result of “serious” discussions between the Civil Front for Democracy and the RSF leadership, the source added, which laid the groundwork for addressing the challenges facing the Sudanese state and enabling the Civil Front’s participation in post-war arrangements.

Regarding the RSF’s stance on the meeting between Burhan and Hemedti, first announced by the Djibouti foreign minister in December, the source reiterated their objection to Burhan attending the meeting in his capacity as the head of the Sudanese state. The RSF leadership has repeatedly emphasized this objection during the extraordinary IGAD summit last month.

On the other hand, Sharif Mohamed Osman, a leader in the Civil Front for Democracy, told Mada Masr that since the October 2021 coup, the Freedom and Change Coalition — the civilian group of political actors that arose as a major force during the 2019 revolution — and anti-coup forces have recognized and addressed Burhan solely as the military commander and not as the head of state. Osman adds that the constitutional document has been undermined and unlawfully amended, thereby invalidating any governing constitutional entity that claims legitimacy to speak on behalf of Sudan.

The Addis Ababa Declaration called for the establishment of civil administrations in war-affected regions. These administrations would be responsible for restoring normalcy and providing basic necessities for civilians. Additionally, a national committee comprising prominent figures in favor of a ceasefire would be formed to safeguard civilians.

The declaration also emphasized full cooperation with the investigation committee established by the United Nations Human Rights Council to “investigate and establish the facts, circumstances and root causes of all alleged human rights and international humanitarian law violations in the context of the conflict.” The RSF and the Civil Front for Democracy agreed to form additional committees to monitor violations and investigate those responsible for instigating the war.

Despite having already agreed to facilitate the provision of aid in the context of the Jeddah Declaration, and then continuing to launch attacks on civilians, the RSF pledged in the Addis Ababa Declaration to open humanitarian corridors in areas under its control and protect relief workers. They also agreed to the Civil Front for Democracy’s request to release 451 prisoners and detainees through the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The Addis Ababa Declaration also encompasses agreements on state-building and the establishment of sustainable peace. These agreements emphasize national unity, equal citizenship, federal governance, and comprehensive programs for rebuilding the security sector.

Erwa al-Sadiq, a member of the Civil Front for Democracy executive office, told Mada Masr that the front presented detailed and practical proposals for each file, which were discussed with the RSF delegation. He noted that humanitarian, security, and political files are simultaneous and interconnected priorities, with progress in one relying on the implementation of others.

Sadiq further mentioned that these same files will be discussed with the Sudanese Armed Forces delegation led by Burhan in the coming days, as a prelude to what Sadiq said he hopes will be a joint understanding among all parties to halt the war and end the conflict in Sudan.

However, political analyst Magdy Abdel Qayyum told Mada Masr that while any efforts made by any party to cease the war are welcomed, the focus should be on the outcomes and the commitment to translating the agreements into tangible actions. He stressed the necessity of reaching an agreement between the main parties involved in the conflict.

Abdel Qayyum viewed the attempts to form committees by civil forces to manage their respective areas, as outlined in the Addis Ababa Declaration, as an endeavor to impose a fait accompli in the context of dismantling the state apparatus.

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Prospects for ceasefire remain distant

Despite the gestures toward a political resolution by the civil front and the RSF, the military and Sudanese state institutions remain clear on the terms of negotiations for a ceasefire. 

A senior source at the Sudanese Foreign Ministry who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity said that the government has put forward all possible solutions to reach a ceasefire agreement. However, the RSF’s refusal to support peaceful options has made it impossible to reach an agreement, especially in the light of their occupation of Gezira State, the source added.

The source reiterated the statements of the military commander that any ceasefire agreement must be preceded by the withdrawal of the RSF from civilian homes and properties and the return of stolen belongings to the citizens.

Meanwhile, Mubarak Bakhit, the secretary of presidential affairs in the Sudan Liberation Forces Alliance — one of the movements that signed the Addis Ababa Declaration with the RSF — told Mada Masr that the RSF has committed to a ceasefire without conditions. However, the military leadership has not yet clarified its position on this matter.

Hassan Ibrahim, the official spokesperson for the Justice and Equality Movement led by Gibril Ibrahim, told Mada Masr that a ceasefire, the opening of safe corridors for aid delivery to civilians, and ensuring freedom of movement for civilians are urgent priorities given the difficult situation the country is currently facing. 

However, Ibrahim noted that the challenge lies in the means of reaching an agreement, especially since everyone was expecting Hemedti to address the grave violations that his force have committed against civilians after he made an appearance with Hamdok, an address that neither happened in words or, as Ibrahim pointed out, in any practical steps to halt further violations. 

Regarding the Addis Ababa Declaration, Ibrahim stated that it is the same framework agreement that classifies the Sudanese based on their level of “revolutionism” and “nationalism.” He pointed out that the declaration provided a clear indication of the likely outcome of the Djibouti meetings between Burhan and Hemedti, if they were to take place, adding, "I therefore do not think that a ceasefire is likely to happen soon."

Conversely, a military source within the RSF who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, said that while Hemedti's statements regarding the ceasefire demonstrate his acceptance and commitment to a complete cessation of hostilities, they perceive the other party as creating obstacles.

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International participation in yet-to-be-decided Burhan-Hemedti meeting

In late December, Djibouti Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf announced that his country, as the current president of IGAD, will host a "decisive meeting" between Burhan and Hemedti in early January. IGAD had previously called on the leadership of the Sudanese military and the RSF to convene and explore avenues for halting the war. 

A former Sudanese diplomat told Mada Masr that the meeting might not take place at the scheduled time, even as he expects a broad international push to exert pressure on the parties to end the war.

Meanwhile, Sharif Mohamed Osman, a leader in the Civil Front for Democracy, told Mada Masr that United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken would attend the meeting. The meeting, which should take place at the end of this week, is meant to be attended by heads of state and governments of IGAD, in addition to representatives from the Jeddah process’s sponsoring countries, Saudi Arabia and the United States. International envoys are also to be present to exert sufficient pressure on the parties to accept signing an agreement to cease hostilities, initiate humanitarian operations, provide assistance to the Sudanese people and engage in political talks leading to a permanent ceasefire, Osman said.

Furthermore, Sadiq, the Civil Front for Democracy executive office member, noted the international support and representation from the US, Western, and Arab countries, for the meeting between the two commanders in Djibouti. He added that the meeting was delayed due to the Christmas holiday.

Sadiq believes that Burhan's position has become more complicated following the fall of Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State and the second-largest city in Sudan, into the hands of the RSF in mid-December. This development has been a turning point for the options that had been put forward at the extraordinary IGAD summit. Burhan had proposed a roadmap starting with the RSF withdrawing from civilian homes as a prerequisite for meeting with Hemedti. However, the military and political developments have worked against Burhan's wishes, Sadiq said, as he had added the demand for the RSF to withdraw from Gezira State as a condition to end the war.

Nevertheless, an informed source in the Sudanese Sovereignty Council told Mada Masr, speaking on condition of anonymity, that Burhan remains steadfast in his position, insisting on the withdrawal from civilian homes and the return of looted money and assets, before taking any steps toward halting the war.

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Sudanese military advances in Omdurman

On the military front, Sudanese military operations persist, with ongoing airstrikes in various locations in the cities of Khartoum and Wad Madani. In Khartoum, the focus of the operations is on the eastern areas, particularly the Riyadh and Taif neighborhoods, which are under the control of the RSF. Simultaneously, the RSF continues its artillery shelling near the Sudanese Armed Forces General Command in central Khartoum. 

According to a source in the military who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, the RSF has been using heavy artillery to disrupt the delivery of military supplies to the command's headquarters since December 20. However, there have been neither casualties among the military’s ranks nor damage to the facilities due to the shelling, the source stated. 

Meanwhile, a field source in the military told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the military repelled a major RSF attack – which included tanks and armored vehicles – on its forces in the Shajara military area south of Khartoum last week. The RSF suffered losses, including the death of the commander of the force, and two tanks were destroyed in the process, according to the source.

In Omdurman, west of Khartoum, the military is still slowly advancing in the central axis, establishing and retaining military footholds. 

In the west of the city, the military’s Special Operations Forces are also advancing and have conducted extensive military operations that have succeeded in breaking the siege on the Engineers Corps after taking control of several neighborhoods. The area is still being secured, according to a field military source in the Special Operations Forces of the Engineers Corps who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. 

In Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, a military source in the Fifth Division told Mada Masr that the Special Operations Forces, formed by the Operations Authority of the General Intelligence Service, have been intensively combing the main and secondary roads leading westward, where the RSF is stationed.

Amid the growing popular mobilization for armed resistance, tribal leaders in the Kordofan region gathered in the Um Badr area, 600 km west of the capital Khartoum, and signed a joint statement under the leadership of the commander of the Popular Defense Forces in South Kordofan State, Major General Kafi Tayara.

The statement emphasized the importance of protecting civilians from any attacks, in addition to cutting off any supplies to the RSF. This includes blocking access to the Bara, Arbaeen, Petrol, Obeid-Nahud, Obeid-Debaibat and Obeid-Kosti roads, as well as internal dirt roads, according to what one of the elders of the Hawazma tribe told Mada Masr.

According to the local source, the meeting was organized in response to the RSF's attack on members of the Dar Hamid tribe in North Kordofan State last week. Concerned about the RSF’s aggression in various areas, the tribes in Kordofan were forced to take proactive measures and address their concerns, according to the source.

In terms of military supplies, the source said that they agreed to cut off any supplies or looted goods passing through their areas from Khartoum. The outcomes of the meeting have been communicated to all tribes and communities, particularly in Darfur.