Gaza ceasefire agreement expected ‘within hours’, informed sources lay out details, remaining sticking points

Following more than 15 months of Israel’s onslaught on the Gaza Strip, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and displaced a majority of the population, a ceasefire agreement seems to be closer than at any time in the tortuous negotiations.

Two Hamas sources and three high-ranking Egyptian sources close to the negotiations who spoke to Mada Masr over the past few days pointed to a consensus on most details of the new proposal before its official announcement. 

Pending ongoing internal deliberations in Israel, the first Hamas source and an Egyptian security source anticipated that a deal could be formally announced “within the next few hours” if approved by the Israeli side, while the second Hamas source said a final agreement could take until Saturday.

According to a copy of the draft Mada Masr obtained, the agreement is divided into three phases of implementation, each taking 42 days. The draft agreement provides specific details of the first phase, leaving the details of both the second and third phases to be determined through further negotiations. 

“Most obstacles have been overcome and some were postponed to a later time during, or after, the implementation of the first phase,” said the Hamas source, a point that was corroborated by an Egyptian source informed on the details of the negotiations, who added that “the most important thing now is for the truce to take place and then continue the negotiations to extend it.”

According to the Hamas source who spoke to Mada Masr on Monday night, the group delivered to Qatari mediators its approval of the draft agreement, which included Egypt, Qatar and the United States as guarantors to its implementation.

“The ball is now in the field of the Israeli government that is also supposed to deliver its response in moments,” the source added. 

Israel has repeatedly hindered the conclusion of a deal over the past year. 

Some disagreements remained unresolved in the course of negotiations, the Hamas source said, specifically concerning Israel’s continued presence in several areas across the Gaza Strip and in the Philadelphi Corridor along the border with Egypt, despite the fact that the agreement makes provision for a comprehensive withdrawal of Occupation troops. 

The anticipated agreement comes a few days ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has expressed on multiple occasions, once in the form of a threat, his desire for all Israeli prisoners to be released and for a conclusive end to the war before he assumes office. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Netanyahu on Saturday to exert pressure on the Israeli prime minister to work on reaching a deal, after which Netanyahu sent a delegation to Doha which included the head of the Mossad, according to Israeli sources who spoke to Reuters.

There are several public indications that the Israeli government is close to signing off on the agreement. A Palestinian trader who moves through the area and who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity said that traders noticed "unusual" movements of Israeli soldiers on the Netsarim corridor in central Gaza, as well as near the Kuwait roundabout area in the south of Gaza City. 

The trader said that the Israeli military movements consisted of heavy transport vehicles that were beginning to move barriers, gates and cement blocks used to build military bases out of the area. He added that they noticed that the Israeli military is reducing its presence in these areas. 

Similarly, a cargo truck driver in the area told Mada Masr that the Occupation military began to dismantle some of the buildings and gates, stressing however that the extent of the activity affects only one or two military bases along the Netsarim axis, which is teeming with bases.

The source added that “the dismantling operations have now stopped, while many of the barriers and foundations are still in place.”

Israeli forces have constructed multiple military bases within the Netsarim axis, a zone of land several kilometers deep and spanning the entire width of the Gaza Strip which the military has cleared of Palestinians’ homes and agricultural land to cut the strip’s north from its south, restricting movement between the two halves of Gaza. 

In Israel, Channel 12 reported on officials saying that two Israeli government ministries have been instructed to “prepare for receiving prisoners,” while Netenyahu is expected to meet the families of the Israeli prisoners and missing persons on Tuesday.

Netenyahu is also scheduled to meet with Itmar Ben Gvir, the national security minister and far-right leader, on Monday evening, likely to persuade him to accept the deal and save his fragile government coalition. 

Israeli Finance Minister and far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich preempted any official announcement of the proposed agreement by declaring that it is “disastrous for the national security of the State of Israel.”

What are the phases of the negotiations?

The draft version of the deal of which Mada Masr reviewed a copy included the following stages. 

A first, 42-day phase which would see prisoners exchanged. Hamas would release 33 of its captives, either alive or dead, all of whom would be women, children, elderly and civilians who are wounded or sick. 

Israel, in return, would release 30 Palestinians of the same description for each Israeli captive released. The identity of the Palestinians set for release would be based upon lists Hamas has submitted to Israel and would start with those who have been detained for the longest. 

Next, Hamas would release all the remaining living elderly detainees, and sick or injured civilians, in return for which Israel would release 30 Palestinian prisoners of similar demographics. 

Hamas would then release all women Israeli soldiers in its captivity, in exchange for each of which Israel would release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 who were sentenced to life. These exclude a list of around 100 prisoners whose names would be discussed at a later stage of the agreement. 

During the first phase, the Israeli military would completely withdraw from Rashid Street in the east until Salah Eddin street, and dismantle sites and military installations in the area.

This would allow the displaced to go back into these residential areas as well as free movement for residents across the Gaza Strip, under the condition that they carry no weapons. 

Accordingly, the Israeli forces will continue to withdraw toward an area close to the borders on the 22nd day of the first phase. 

Large and sufficient quantities of humanitarian aid would therefore be allowed starting the first day of the agreement and without obstacles, according to the draft agreement, allowing the entry of 600 aid trucks on a daily basis, including 50 fuel trucks and 300 exclusively to northern Gaza. 

According to the proposal, there will be enough shipments of fuel allowed into Gaza to operate power plants, trade activities and equipment needed to remove rubble, as well as the necessary quantities to rehabilitate and operate hospitals, health centers and bakeries across the strip, which will continue throughout all stages of the agreement. 

The second phase, also lasting for 42 days, will include the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, which the draft agreement framed as the return of sustainable calm and a complete cessation of military operations and hostile activities.

The withdrawal of troops would go into effect before another prisoner exchange round, this time focusing on all the remaining Israeli men in Gaza, both civilians and soldiers, in return for an agreed upon number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons and detention centers. 

In the third and final phase, border crossing will be reopened, allowing the free movement of individuals and goods outside of the Gaza Strip.