As Israel ramps up strikes on Lebanon, Egypt’s intelligence chief joins international push to de-escalate by kickstarting talks

“Calming the situation in Gaza should reflect positively on the region,” Egypt’s ambassador to Lebanon, Alaa Moussa, told reporters at a press conference in Beirut on Monday.

“Or, at the same time,” he continued, “it should prompt us to pay attention to other affairs that must be resolved peacefully and appropriately so they do not escalate into further conflicts.”

Moussa did not elaborate further, maintaining a diplomatic neutrality in a presser that included questions on whether Egypt is participating in a threat to Lebanon. But three diplomatic sources — two from Egypt and one a regional diplomat — confirmed to Mada Masr that the high-level officials descending on Beirut, from the General Intelligence Services, the White House and the Arab League, are there to apply pressure to kickstart negotiations in order to divert the likelihood that Israel will escalate its war on the country.

The alternative, according to a Lebanese political official close to the government, would be a renewed Israeli aggression “with an international green light.”

Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon’s south and east have escalated in pace and intensity over recent days, and its military made a display of readiness at the end of last week, conducting a training exercise near the Lebanese border — the first since a tenuous ceasefire began almost a year ago.

Two people were killed in attacks on south Lebanon on Monday morning, just hours before United States envoy Morgan Ortagus was due to touchdown in Beirut.

Evading a new aggression, however, is conditional on Hezbollah’s disarmament “and the beginning of security and border discussions with Israel,”  said the United States’ ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, who threatened in a recent statement that the alternative, “should Beirut continue to hesitate,” would be that “Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave.”

The Lebanese official told Mada Masr that a negotiated process is the outcome being sought by international figures, including the Egyptian intelligence chief, Hassan Rashad, who visited Lebanon over recent hours. 

“Launching a political process requires a lot of political and diplomatic pressure,” added the source, explaining the reason for the consecutive arrivals of the White House deputy Middle East envoy and Rashad, whose negotiating chops are being touted after his role in the developments in Gaza, as well as Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit to Beirut.

But there are still “loopholes” outstanding in the ceasefire agreement that Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and Israel agreed to last year, the Lebanese political source continued.

“Not because there isn’t a desire to begin negotiations,” the source elaborated, but because “there is disagreement on their content and form.”

Hezbollah and the Amal Movement under Speaker of the House of Representatives Nabih Berri, who together make up the two prongs of Lebanon’s Shiaa community and a defense against Israeli aggression on the country’s south and east, are not opposed to the principle of negotiations, as per the source. 

But the pressure for an eventual normalization is mounting — an outcome that both Israel and the US are keen to accelerate.

“Lebanon still views dealing with Israel as a crime and consequently no real mechanism for enforcement exists,” Barrack said in what he framed as a “personal perspective” on his X account.

But rather than leaping into direct political contact with Israel, which Lebanon still does not officially recognize, the two representatives of Lebanon’s Shiaa community want indirect talks to take place first, said the Lebanese political source.

A similar set-up was used to convene the talks that established the maritime border demarcation between Israel and Lebanon in 2022.

As for the talks’ content, the source added, there is still no resolution for the tens of thousands of Lebanese still displaced from towns and villages in the country's south by Israel’s invasion. The process of funding for rebuilding is also stalled, pending political talks.

Without a move toward a political process, said an Egyptian diplomatic source informed of the discussions around Lebanon, “we all know that Hezbollah will not hand over arms and Israel will not leave.”

Hezbollah Secretary General Naeem Qassem voiced the group’s willingness to take part in talks, saying “everyone emerges a winner” if a path forward for the ceasefire agreement is implemented. He said the group has no intention of striking Israel, but will continue to prepare to respond if it faces an attack.

But with Israel ramping up military pressure, Egypt has sent over its most senior intelligence official amid concerns that heightened friction could be intended to provoke a conflagration, said the Egyptian diplomat. 

All three diplomatic sources stressed that the consequences of a military confrontation would be dire.

If Israel continues to escalate then the Lebanese state cannot prevent a Hezbollah response, according to the regional diplomat and a second Egyptian diplomatic source. 

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun can ask Hezbollah to refrain, the regional diplomat explained. “But if Israel starts a new war against south Lebanon, Aoun cannot tell Hezbollah not to respond when the Lebanese army itself will not be responding.”

Both sources also noted that as Israel comes under heavy pressure from Washington not to restart the fighting in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could seek a moderate escalation on Lebanon to keep figures to his political right onside until the elections.

The consequences would wrack the region. A new round of displacement from Lebanon, said the second Egyptian diplomatic source, could provide Netanyahu with cover for an expansion of military operations in Syria. 

The regional diplomat also voiced the fragility of the balance in Lebanon. “Israel could strike beyond Hezbollah, and this could put pressure on Aoun to enforce disarmament,” they said. 

So far, Aoun is declining to be pressured into pushing the Lebanese military to advance Hezbollah’s disarmament, said the diplomat. But they cautioned that a civil war in Lebanon could play in Netanyahu’s favor.

Pushing back against his detractors who say that DC is calling the shots in Israel, Netanyahu said in an interview earlier this week that “we’re an independent state, and we fashion our own security policy and follow it.”

“If you prepare an attack, we go and wipe you out,” he said, pointing to Lebanon as an example. “We’re not asking for permission from our American friends.”

Israel’s military continues to claim its uptick in aggression is targeted at Hezbollah officials and training capacity. But its airstrikes on Lebanon have also destroyed temporary housing and construction facilities and equipment intended to patch together homes for the people expelled from south Lebanon by its 2024 bombings. Far-right Israeli figures have sworn to prevent the areas being rebuilt and to keep in place the forces that still occupy around ten square kilometers in the south.

With no apparent political will to contain the pervasive “defense” framework that Israel’s military uses as a pretext to ramp up pressure in its almost daily strikes to its north, the rush of diplomatic efforts toward a political process is the only release valve in sight.