Erdogan, Sisi hold meeting in Qatar, reconciliation bolstered by Qatari financial incentives

“A picture worth a thousand words — a historic tripartite encounter between Sisi and Erdogan, with the emir of Qatar smiling between them.” 

This is how one intelligence-affiliated outlet described the snapshot of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan shaking hands and smiling on the sidelines of the FIFA World Cup opening ceremony in Qatar on November 20.

The handshake is the first interaction between both heads of state since diplomatic ties were severed on the back of the military-backed popular movement to oust former President Mohamed Morsi, which Ankara met with fierce condemnation. But the corridor handshake was only part of their encounter, as they sat for nearly an hour-long meeting to discuss reconciliation and matters of political and economic cooperation.

The meeting between the two once hostile heads of state was the fruit of two months of negotiations mediated by Doha, which sought to speed up the sluggish reconciliation talks that started more than a year ago. Egypt and Turkey have recently been dealing with declining economies and internal tensions that are making regional antagonism less and less sensible. Now, Qatar is coming in to help iron out these obstacles, offering direct financial support as an incentive, three government sources informed on the negotiations told Mada Masr.

The meeting at the World Cup opener was preceded by over two months of intensive talks in Doha that involved veteran diplomats from Egypt and Turkey who had left the service but were brought back to lead the negotiations under Qatari auspices, as well as the intelligence chiefs of the three countries. 

These talks made advances on some of the central points of contention, including Ankara’s desire to redraw maritime borders with Egypt and join the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, as well as the situation in Libya, where both countries are involved on opposing sides of the protracted conflict, the sources said. The negotiators agreed that talks on these issues will continue going forward, according to the sources.

After the photo was taken, the three heads of state and their intelligence chiefs sat down in a closed meeting for nearly an hour, during which Erdogan and Sisi discussed the Libyan crisis and the eastern Mediterranean issue, agreeing that Turkey will be allowed to join the forum — alongside Lebanon, Palestine and Syria — after diplomatic relations are normalized. 

After the meeting, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani held a banquet to celebrate the start of reconciliation, during which he announced that he would be offering a sizable sum in direct financial support to Egypt, to be delivered to Cairo in the coming period, the sources added.

The money would come at a vital time for Egypt, as, according to Finance Minister Mohamed Maiet, in addition to a foreign currency shortage, Egypt is facing a US$16 billion financing gap over the next four years to make good on strategic imports and debt servicing.

Egypt has faced an uphill battle in its efforts to secure a lifeline from its traditional Gulf allies to weather the complications resulting from a global economic crisis and its own mismanagement of its exposure to financial externalities due to a heavy reliance on bond markets. Egypt was able to secure a tame 46-month $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund in October — which has yet to be approved by the funding agency — having settled for a small total loan to put off touching politically sensitive files like subsidy reform and the sale of military-owned companies. 

Egypt and Turkey began exploring high-level reconciliation talks in the summer of 2021, with several meetings held in Cairo and Ankara between senior Foreign Ministry officials on both sides. But the talks ground to a halt. While Ankara complained about the slow pace and held Cairo responsible for it, the Egyptian side put the blame on Ankara, indicating that the halt is due to the way Turkey continued to approach certain files, most notably the eastern Mediterranean and Libya.

Yet, the two states were ready to return to negotiating these files at a higher level when Qatar joined the table.

According to the sources, Erdogan even made an official request before the World Cup to come to Cairo and hold a summit with Sisi to announce the resolution of outstanding issues between the two countries and launch a new phase for Egyptian-Turkish relations. However, security bodies in Cairo suggested postponement to make the necessary preparations for the summit, which the sources expect to be held by the beginning of next year.

Several Western diplomats in Cairo who previously spoke to Mada Masr believe that Turkey’s endeavors to reconcile with Egypt are partially motivated by its declining economic situation, which prompted Erdogan to consider the prospects of improving his relations with neighboring countries, including Egypt, in order to settle his country’s maritime borders — seen in Ankara as limited by the 2020 agreement between Egypt and Greece — and start drilling for gas.

Qatar is about to provide a generous aid package to Turkey’s flagging economy. Last week, Reuters reported that Turkey and Qatar are in the final stages of talks for Doha to provide up to $10 billion in funding for Ankara, including up to $3 billion by the end of this year.

Economic motivations were behind Egypt speeding up reconciliation with Qatar itself earlier this year. Amid Egypt’s ongoing financial crisis, frustrations grew in Cairo as traditional Gulf allies — particularly the UAE — used the situation to rapidly expand their Egyptian asset acquisitions, even working against Cairo as it sought out a new loan agreement with the IMF. So, Cairo turned to Doha, seeking Qatari investment and Qatari-Egyptian cooperation in foreign policy to counterbalance the UAE’s influence.

According to the government sources, the UAE had been trying to sponsor the reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey in recent months, but Qatar’s sizable financial offer and the clearer political terms of engagement  both Turkey and Egypt see in Doha won out. 

Ankara and Cairo are expected to exchange ministerial visits in the coming weeks, according to a source at a government-affiliated research center, with an upgrade to diplomatic representation scheduled to take place in April if reconciliation talks proceed apace. The focus now, the source says, is for both countries to work on possible projects of economic cooperation in which Qatar could be a partner.

Writing by Ahmed Bakr