Sudan Nashra: Sudan, Russia near Red Sea port deal in exchange for arms supplies, Civil Front for Democracy raises concerns | Port Sudan, Juba discuss oil pipeline disruption, South Sudanese mercenaries backing RSF

After 14 months of fighting, the war in Sudan is increasingly taking on an international and regional dynamic, highlighted by the Sudanese Armed Forces nearing a final agreement with Russia to establish a military logistics supply center on the Red Sea coast in Port Sudan in exchange for needed weaponry, according to informed sources.

Egypt, Sudan’s long-standing ally, has once again stepped into its mediation role in the Sudanese crisis, announcing plans to host a conference at the end of June to facilitate intra-Sudanese dialogue. While Port Sudan — Sudan’s new administrative capital — has agreed to participate, they have set conditions to ensure the inclusion of all parties. 

In the context of regional developments, South Sudanese Presidential Advisor on Security Affairs Tut Gatluak held talks in Port Sudan with Sudanese military leaders on the involvement of South Sudanese mercenaries with the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan’s war. The discussions also addressed the disruption of the main pipeline that exports South Sudanese oil to Sudan.

This comes as Sudanese Armed Forces Deputy Commander-in-Chief Shams Eddin al-Kabbashi embarks on a West African tour, where he held talks with Malian President Assimi Goita on Thursday. Their talks centered on areas of cooperation with Sahel countries in the security sector, and agreements on political, economic, and cultural cooperation protocols, as well as the signing of memorandums of understanding between the defense and foreign ministries of both countries, according to a statement by the Transitional Sovereign Council’s media office.

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South Sudanese delegation in Port Sudan 

Amid the disruption in the transmission of oil through the main pipeline from South Sudan’s oil fields to the Bashayer port on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, which began in March due to military confrontations, a South Sudanese delegation led by Gatluak engaged in discussions with Sudanese officials in Port Sudan.

According to two sources from the South Sudanese Foreign Ministry who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, Gatluak addressed several topics on the agenda between Khartoum and Juba, including the reparation of the oil pipeline and South Sudan’s mediation role in the Sudanese crisis. 

An informed source in the Sudanese government told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that South Sudan presented a roadmap to resolve Sudan’s crisis in alignment with the outcomes of the Jeddah talks and the pledges signed between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF in May and November 2023.  

A source in the South Sudanese delegation told Mada Masr that Juba’s vision addresses Sudan’s crisis while upholding the country’s unity and stability, recognizing the significant impact any unrest in Sudan would have on its southern neighbor. 

However, also on the agenda was the Sudanese state’s concern over South Sudanese militias fighting alongside the RSF, a security source told Mada Masr.

The Sudanese military had previously released footage of South Sudanese mercenaries fighting in the RSF’s ranks, stating that they were apprehended following the military’s recapture of Old Omdurman in March. 

Two military sources in the Signal Corps in the capital’s Bahri city and the Armored Corps in southern Khartoum told Mada Masr that the majority of RSF fighters involved in the attacks on the two camps are affiliated with South Sudanese militias. 

South Sudan’s previous attempts at mediating between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu in May, as well as in bringing together Sudanese political factions in Juba, were unsuccessful. This was due to the Civil Front for Democracy, led by Former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, refusing Juba's proposal to engage with the Democratic Bloc, which includes a wide range of armed movements and civil political parties under the leadership of the Democratic Unionist Party led by Mohamed Othman al-Mirghani. 

In the context of external mediation efforts, Egypt extended an invitation to Sudanese political forces for an intra-Sudanese dialogue in Cairo. 

A Sudanese diplomatic source told Mada Masr that Sudan sees Cairo as a suitable venue for discussions that could contribute to Sudanese reconciliation. However, the source stressed that specific conditions must be met to guarantee that Sudan’s sovereignty is not compromised and that no Sudanese party is to be excluded from the dialogue. 

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Russia on the Red Sea coast

Politically, the Sudanese government has given the green light to proceed with the agreement to establish a Russian logistics supply center on the Red Sea coast. 

In 2017, now-ousted President Omar al-Bashir inked a cooperation protocol with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during the Sochi Summit to establish a military base in the Red Sea. Yet, when current Transitional Sovereignty Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan assumed the presidency of the Transitional Military Council, the project was suspended.

However, sovereignty council member and Sudanese Armed Forces Assistant Commander-in-Chief Yasser al-Atta stated in a press interview in late May that "Russia proposed military cooperation through a logistics supply center, not a full military base, in exchange for urgent supplies of weapons and ammunition." 

Atta expressed Sudan’s acceptance of the Russian proposal and their interest in broadening cooperation to encompass economic aspects. He also said that Burhan is expected to sign a partnership agreement between the two countries following Transitional Sovereignty Council Deputy Chair Malik Agar’s visit to Saint Petersburg in Russia to participate in the 27th edition of the International Economic Forum. 

Atta stressed that there is nothing shameful about this move, highlighting Sudan’s openness to similar agreements with other countries, including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, giving priority to Sudan's interests above all else. 

Accompanied by the ministers of foreign affairs, finance and minerals, Agar and his delegation arrived in Saint Petersburg on Monday. The delegation will hold meetings with Putin and other Russian officials to discuss enhancing bilateral relations, current developments and regional implications, and the situation’s impact on international arenas. 

A source within the sovereignty council told Mada Masr that the delegation will explore avenues with Putin to enhance Sudanese-Russian relations and potentially advance previous agreements to safeguard the interests of both countries, particularly in mining and military collaborations.  

The source added that the ongoing talks between Moscow and Port Sudan will mainly focus on finalizing the agreement to establish the Russian logistics center on the Red Sea, as well as military and economic support matters. 

Sudan's Ambassador to Moscow, Mohamed Serag, reaffirmed his country’s commitment to the agreement with Moscow concerning the construction of a Russian naval base in the Red Sea. In statements to Russian news agency Sputnik, Serag added that construction operations will commence promptly after completing some procedures.

The proposed facility is going to be located north of the Flamingo Sudanese military base, established in the early 1960s. It includes berths for warships, radar units for monitoring regional waters, and naval boats. 

A source in the military leadership told Mada Masr that a draft was put forward to reach an agreement on the technical arrangements for implementation. The draft specifies that the number of Russian soldiers stationed at the logistics center should not exceed 300, and the naval vessels should not exceed four. 

Under the agreement, Sudan is set to receive military equipment through a separate protocol, in addition to the existing military agreements, the source said, adding that the final draft of the agreement has been completed. While the details of the military equipment that the Russian side is to provide were not disclosed, the source said that they are advanced weapons aimed at addressing all current and future security threats. 

Furthermore, the source emphasized Sudan’s right to enter into military cooperation agreements with any country, taking into account the interests of neighboring countries and regional security threats. The political leadership of Sudan, represented by the Transitional Sovereignty Council, has made its decision in response to the covert cooperation observed between certain countries in acts of aggression against Sudan, the source said. Therefore, it is necessary for Sudan to take more decisive actions.

In May, Russian Special Envoy to the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov visited Port Sudan and held discussions with Burhan and several Sudanese officials. The talks revolved around bilateral relations amid the ongoing war. Bogdanov affirmed at the time that the Transitional Sovereignty Council, led by Burhan, is the legitimate authority representing the Sudanese people. 

A source familiar with the Russian delegation's visit told Mada Masr that Bogdanov's talks then focused on the Russian naval base on the Red Sea and the conditions set by both parties before implementation. Moscow demanded that Sudan cease dealings with Ukraine, allocate mining areas, and commence base construction, the source said.   

On the other hand, the Sudanese government requested that the Russian Wagner military group not engage with the RSF and that the Sudanese Armed Forces be supplied with ammunition and weapons. According to the source, each party committed to implementing the conditions raised by the other party. 

The Russian mercenary group Wagner has close ties with the RSF and collaborates with it in military propaganda and training. Sudanese officials have repeatedly raised concerns about Wagener’s involvement in Sudan’s war.  

Meanwhile, Sudanese politicians are concerned that establishing the Russian logistics supply center may internationalize the ongoing war and turn Sudan into a battleground for major powers, especially since the US and regional countries oppose Russia's presence in this strategic Red Sea location.

The Civil Front for Democracy spokesperson Bakry al-Jack voiced these concerns to Mada Masr. He argued that the sovereignty council’s moves regarding Russia would prolong the war. Jack also stressed that the war will not end with a military victory for any party. 

Jack added that granting Russia a base on the Red Sea represents a surrender of national sovereignty by a state with no legitimacy and that does not represent the interests of the Sudanese people. This move poses a threat to the security of the Red Sea region, potentially transforming it into a zone of open conflict, Jack said, adding that the Sudanese people stand to suffer the most, as backing either side of the war would only serve to perpetuate and escalate it.

However, political analyst and former member of the Freedom and Change Movement’s executive office Magdy Abdel Qayyum told Mada Masr that the Sudanese-Russian agreement is needed at this particular time, when the country is embroiled in a proxy war within the framework of fourth-generation warfare and in the context of the resource plunder policy pursued by the US, specifically through its regional proxies. 

Abdel Qayyum said that this cooperation thwarts the US-sponsored project of dismantling and fragmenting Sudan, which is facilitated by the United Arab Emirates through the RSF militarily and the Civil Front for Democracy as a civilian political cover. 

Abdel Qayyum anticipated that Washington and its regional proxies would not remain passive in response to this development. Based on the nature of the conflict, they are likely to stir up a lot of dust around this agreement, he said. 

"The threat facing [Sudan] will drive military leaders to move forward until the end of the round. This country can’t lose more than it has lost in this war,” Abdel Qayyum concluded.

Meanwhile, African affairs analyst Adel Ahmed Ibrahim told Mada Masr that the war will continue until its end. In Ibrahim’s estimation, Russian military support to Sudan will cause the war to escalate to unprecedented levels. He added that the Sudanese-Russian rapprochement may exert pressure on the RSF to go to the Jeddah platform to seek an agreement to stop the war.

Ibrahim also pointed to the concurrent visits of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Chad and Kabbashi’s visits to Mali and Niger. 

He said that Lavrov's visit comes amid the significant rapprochement between Moscow and military leaders in Mali and Niger, indicating that there is a political dimension to this visit. Ibrahim stressed that what is at hand now is the initiation of a regional and international war with the wheels already set in motion, against the backdrop of Sudan’s rapid collapse.

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Kabbashi on a West African tour 

In his most recent diplomatic tour, Kabbashi arrived in West Africa on Tuesday for visits to Mali and Niger. 

His itinerary started in Mali, where he delivered a letter from Burhan to Malian Interim President Goita. 

A sovereign source told Mada Masr that Kabbashi will engage in discussions pertaining to the security of the Sahel and the Sahara countries. The agenda includes addressing security threats, such as migration issues and transnational terrorist organizations, as well as exploring avenues for cooperation, in addition to broader discussions on African security matters and relevant institutions. 

A statement by the Transitional Sovereignty Council said that Kabbashi discussed several security, economic, and cultural topics, including the reopening of the Malian consulate in Sudan and the resumption of the diplomatic mission in Port Sudan after its suspension in the wake of the war’s outbreak on April 15, 2023. 

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Military operations in Fasher continue

In western North Darfur, Wadi Ambar is witnessing military confrontations between the military-aligned joint force and popular resistance units on one side, and the RSF on the other. 

Military operations began outside Fasher on June 1, following the arrival of military personnel and equipment from the popular resistance at the outskirts of the city, coming from the Sudanese-Chadian and Sudanese-Libyan borders in the northwestern direction. 

A field source in the joint force told Mada Masr that military vehicles have been mobilized to conduct operations across various areas in North Darfur State to lift the siege on Fasher. These offensives are aimed at military and logistical RSF positions. The source further indicated that these attacks are a prelude to an imminent broad military escalation after the siege on Fasher is lifted. 

A source from the Darfur Regional Government told Mada Masr that Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minnawi had a phone call with US Special Envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello on Wednesday evening. Minnawi addressed the RSF’s crimes in Fasher and the Darfur region. According to the source, the US proposed a humanitarian protocol to protect civilians, which includes the withdrawal of armed groups from Fasher, opening humanitarian corridors for aid delivery, and the evacuation of the injured. 

However, the armed movements, the Darfur government, and Sudanese authorities rejected the proposal. The source said that the US is not taking the current crisis seriously, which is affecting Fasher’s residents, as well as civilians in other regions of Sudan. The source stressed that the RSF persists in its crimes due to the lack of international condemnation, urging for direct pressure to curtail RSF violations and cut off their military supplies.

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New massacre in Gezira 

In Gezira State, amid the military maneuvering to reclaim Wad Madani, Gezira’s capital that the RSF captured in December after the military’s mysterious withdrawal, the RSF continued its attacks on villages. 

On Wednesday, the RSF assaulted the Wad al-Noura village in the southwest of Gezira, in the Qurashi 24 locality. 

Two local eyewitnesses told Mada Masr that the RSF first attempted to raid their village on June 5 at the beginning of the day, but was met with resistance from the villagers and the intervention of the Sudanese air force, thwarting their entry and dispersing the attacking force. Subsequently, the RSF regrouped and redirected their attack toward Wad al-Noura, after looting the first village. 

Eyewitnesses to the massacre in Wad al-Noura told Mada Masr that the RSF attacked with around 15 combat vehicles and heavy weaponry, including Katyusha rockets and anti-aircraft guns. 

A local medical source who spoke to Mada Masr reported a toll of 156 fatalities and over 210 injuries, some of them critical. The source said that most of the casualties were deliberate targets. 

Another local source told Mada Masr that this marks the second assault on the village.

The RSF’s presence in Gezira State is divided under four leaderships: Lieutenant Colonel Abdel Rahman al-Bishy, Abu Agla Keikel, General Galha Rahma Mahdi, in addition to some groups led by Ahmed Kojja. 

These commanders exert control over distinct areas in the state. A field military source who spoke to Mada Masr indicated the undisciplined nature of these RSF combat units, as they do not follow military orders, and are primarily motivated by looting and theft. Consequently, they attack villages and neighborhoods for financial gain.