Sudan Nashra: Sudan rejects US-led Quad roadmap amid international pressure for negotiations | Cabinet source: Final points on Saudi investments in Sudan settled during Idris’s Riyadh visit | South Sudanese opposition declares transitional govt ‘collapsed’ | Civilian deaths mount in Fasher

Energy topped Idris’s agenda in Riyadh, a senior source in the Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr. Discussions included the construction of a factory for electrical transformers as part of plans for Saudi partnerships to offset heavy losses in Sudan’s electricity sector. 

Talks also covered rehabilitating several oil refineries and ways to resolve transport issues affecting South Sudanese crude shipments — a persistent problem straining relations with Juba exacerbated recently by a United Arab Emirates move to impede oil shipments moving from Sudan. A South Sudanese delegation had visited Port Sudan in August to press for faster solutions to these logistical problems, the source said.

Idris also met with Saudi investors with prior projects in Sudan, with a focus on agriculture and livestock, according to the source. Discussions included a proposal from the Animal Resources Ministry to establish a slaughterhouse meeting international standards in River Nile State as part of efforts to expand meat exports.

Idris was joined on the trip by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim, Animal Resources Minister Ahmed al-Tigany al-Mansoury and a team of investment advisers whom he has tasked with assessing government performance, a source who accompanied the delegation told Mada Masr.

The source in the Cabinet Affairs Ministry described the visit as “fruitful,” pointing to finalized points in Saudi investments that built on the work of joint committees and the joint coordination council established after Transitional Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s visit to Riyadh earlier this year. Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, the source added, has been closely monitoring the council’s work since his March meeting with Burhan.

Another Foreign Ministry source said Idris’s talks also reviewed the findings of a Saudi Public Investment Fund delegation that toured Sudanese projects in March. The delegation had raised concerns over obstacles to existing investments, which Idris pledged to address in order to clear the way for contracts and an investment package to be announced in Khartoum, according to the source.

Idris began his trip on Monday in Madinah, where he and his delegation performed umrah before traveling to Riyadh on the same day. The visit itself had already been postponed from August to allow for additional administrative preparations, according to a ministerial source.

Ahead of his departure to Saudi, Idris held planning meetings in Sudan with the ministers of finance, energy and minerals and, after his return to Port Sudan from the first Cabinet meeting in Khartoum in late August, conferred urgently with Burhan on files for discussion with the Saudis, according to the source.

Health complications arose only three days into the visit. On Wednesday morning, Idris fell ill due to what the Foreign Ministry said was exhaustion. He was admitted to a hospital in Riyadh, forcing the cancellation of his meeting with bin Salman. The ministry said that Idris has since recovered, left the hospital and returned to Khartoum on Thursday evening after meeting Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud. Both sides reaffirmed their intention to reschedule the high-level talks soon.

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South Sudanese opposition declares transitional govt ‘collapsed’

The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), one of the two signatories to South Sudan’s 2018 peace agreement, declared on Monday that the transitional government formed under the deal had “collapsed,” according to a media source in Juba along with several regional media outlets.

The announcement comes after months of showdowns between President Salva Kiir and his rival, now-former First Vice President and SPLM-IO leader Riek Machar, stoking fears among regional and international actors that the world’s youngest nation could spiral back into civil war — just years after the peace deal ended a brutal five-year conflict between their factions that killed over 400,000 South Sudanese.

Four sources in the opposition told Mada Masr that Kiir is exploiting the turmoil, both in South Sudan and in its northern neighbor, to engineer a political reshuffle that could clear the way for his second deputy Bol Mel to take over as president, sidestepping peace agreement commitments to elections that could have favored Machar, given his popularity.

The SPLM-IO announcement was issued after four days of internal meetings held over the weekend, a media official close to the movement’s acting chair Oyet Nathaniel Pierino told Mada Masr. The opposition concluded that the transitional government has lost its constitutional legitimacy.

Days before, Machar was suspended as first vice president after the government accused him of involvement in the killing of around 250 soldiers in clashes earlier this year in the town of Nasir, Upper Nile.

Fighting in Nasir erupted in February after the White Army — a Machar-aligned militia drawn from the Nuer ethnic group, a historical rival to Kiir’s Dinka-led leadership — resisted orders to withdraw from certain areas and hand over their weapons. The earlier clashes were followed by an attack on a UN helicopter evacuating government soldiers, killing around 27 people including the regional commander. The government has since held Machar and forces loyal to him responsible, moving to arrest SPLM-IO generals and ministers.

By late March, SPLM-IO suspended its participation in the transitional structures established under the 2018 agreement, Pierino, also the former deputy speaker of the Transitional National Legislative Assembly, told Mada Masr at the time.

Soon after, Machar was placed under house arrest — a step a leader in the South Sudanese armed forces described to Mada Masr at the time as tantamount to a declaration of war, directly threatening the peace deal.

On Monday, the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), which oversees implementation of the peace deal, warned lawmakers that the agreement was at risk of collapse, a South Sudanese parliamentary source told Mada Masr. Among the cited violations were Machar’s house arrest, the detention of opposition members and unilateral government decisions on appointments and dismissals “in breach of power-sharing arrangements.”

On Thursday, Justice Minister Ruben Madol announced that Machar and seven senior security and military figures from the SPLM-IO have been charged with treason and crimes against humanity, with Machar also facing charges related to terrorism and supporting terrorist groups, a source in the ministry told Mada Masr. Investigations are underway before they are brought to trial, the source added.

Within hours of the announcement, Kiir suspended Machar from office.

The 2018 peace agreement, which rewrote South Sudan’s 2011 transitional constitution, was built on a power-sharing system between Kiir’s SPLM and Machar’s SPLM-IO that guaranteed Machar the post of first vice president and bound both sides to consensus in governing. By removing Machar and reshaping the government unilaterally, Kiir’s camp has drawn mounting international and domestic condemnation.

A member of the opposition-affiliated People’s Coalition for Civil Action, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, accused Kiir’s faction of attempting to reconfigure the government in order to cling to power and evade constitutional obligations. The government itself shares responsibility for the Nasir violence and other crises, the source added, pointing to its failures to uphold the peace agreement, which have fueled violations on all sides.

SPLM-IO spokesperson Pal Mai Deng echoed this assessment, telling Mada Masr that Kiir’s policies since the start of the year point to a major shift within the ruling SPLM.

According to Deng, Kiir is orchestrating a political reshuffle designed to pave the way politically for his deputy Bol Mel to eventually assume power. Mel’s rise, he added, is tied to new economic arrangements by the government, particularly with Mel pushing to cut off South Sudan’s reliance on Sudan for oil exports, which Mel views as exploitative under the pretext of allowing transit. 

Kiir appointed Mel as his second vice president and chair of the Economic Cluster in February and promoted him earlier this week to the rank of general in the National Security Service. Mel, a businessman sanctioned by the US and implicated by the UN Human Rights Commission for corruption in government contracts, is regarded as a rising political figure with significant ties to Kenya and Uganda.

According to an opposition political source in Juba, Mel has leveraged Sudan’s crisis to build ties with RSF deputy commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo, facilitating fuel smuggling deals across the border. Dagalo himself went to Juba in July 2024, a visit likely arranged by Mel, a source in the South Sudanese government told Mada Masr at the time.

Kiir’s administration, on the other hand, used the financial crisis brought about by the prolonged disruption to oil flows through Sudan to put off elections, buying itself time to strengthen its hold on power.

Juba’s oil sector has suffered repeated blows since the war in Sudan began. The RSF sabotaged oil fields and pipelines, seizing the Jaili refinery on the first day of the war, followed by the takeover of the Aylafun oil pump station, which transports South Sudan’s oil, in the following month. In March 2024, the Sudanese Petroleum Ministry officially declared a force majeure on oil exports piped from South Sudan due to the fighting. The disruption triggered a financial crisis in South Sudan.

With Machar commanding a strong support base across South Sudan’s political and social spectrum, and with the added strain of Sudan’s war and the suspension of oil exports, the government chose to postpone elections scheduled for 2024 until 2026, a senior figure in SPLM-IO told Mada Masr. 

The source argued that Kiir never truly accepted his rival’s presence in government, formalized by the 2018 peace deal. He saw in the election delay the perfect opening to undermine the deal, they added. The Nasir clashes then came and provided a convenient pretext to remove Machar and elevate Bol Mel, who is widely expected to succeed Kiir as president, according to the source.

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Sudan rejects US-led Quad roadmap amid international pressure for negotiations

Sudan rejected the US-led Quad’s roadmap for ending the war, dismissing what it called “interventions that fail to respect the sovereignty of the Sudanese state.”

The Quad — comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates — issued a statement on September 12 calling for a three-month humanitarian truce, followed by a permanent ceasefire and the launch of a civilian transition within nine months. The plan, however, runs counter to Khartoum’s pursuit of a military resolution and its newly formed transitional government.

According to a source in the Foreign Ministry, the rejection, conveyed in separate statements by the Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) and the Foreign Ministry, made clear that this was more than a diplomatic stance — it was a declaration of a new political strategy, the source said.

Khartoum will not negotiate without recognition of the government’s legitimacy, nor accept any process that places it on equal footing with the RSF, the source said, adding that peace cannot be achieved without military resolution.

The hardline stance underscores rising tensions between Khartoum and international actors and recalls the collapse of earlier efforts. The London Conference in April — despite participation from the UN, the African Union and regional states — ended without results. A TSC source told Mada Masr that TSC Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was angered by the government’s exclusion, especially as the military was gaining ground at the time and had expected a new phase of engagement. The Geneva talks held in August 2024 also ended without progress, with the military refusing to participate.

Led by Burhan, the Sudanese delegation to the Arab-Islamic summit in Doha this week used meetings run on the sidelines to push back against the US-led Quad pressure on Khartoum.

According to an informed source, General Intelligence Service chief Ahmed Ibrahim Mufaddal briefed delegations from Indonesia, Algeria and other countries on the latest developments in Sudan and urged greater coordination to contain the crisis, particularly as Washington and its Quad partners press for Khartoum’s acceptance of their plan.

Burhan is facing a complex position: leading a military campaign against the RSF on the ground while resisting mounting international pressure to sit at the negotiating table.

The African Union, together with the European Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the Arab League and the United Nations, plans to convene a new round of talks with Sudanese political forces in Addis Ababa on October 6, according to an informed source in the AU. The source told Mada Masr that the AU Commission is currently arranging invitations for political coalitions, parties, civil society groups, women and youth organizations and resistance committees to prepare for a Sudanese-led dialogue and a transition to a civilian-led constitutional order.

But three leaders in the Sudanese Communist Party and the Sumud coalition, who received invitations for the talks, told Mada Masr that the agenda revolves around the Quad’s roadmap.

On Wednesday, AU Commission Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf met US senior adviser Massad Boulos, who is leading Washington’s Sudan track. Sudan featured heavily in the meeting, discussing coordination on implementing the Quad’s roadmap in October, another source in the AU told Mada Masr.

This comes after earlier AU-led consultations in February, which included separate meetings with the Democratic Bloc, the RSF-aligned Tasis coalition, Sumud coalition and the Sudanese Communist Party.

That trajectory stands in contrast to how the Sudan-US Zurich talks were perceived by Khartoum. In unannounced talks in Switzerland in mid-August, a high-level Sudanese delegation presented the American side with three files — ending the war, humanitarian aid delivery and the role of the UAE in negotiations. An informed source in the TSC source described them at the time as “stumbling blocks” to any US-led effort to launch negotiations.

The talks covered the government’s conditions for entering broader negotiations involving the Quad and other regional powers, the biggest of which is that the Sudanese delegation is insisting that Abu Dhabi must halt all military assistance to the RSF before any consultations or formal process could begin.

The source’s assessment at the time was that the talks were “highly transparent” and conducted with “a flexibility that could help build mutual trust.”

But then came the Quad’s statement last week.

Washington is “repeating past mistakes,” another TSC source said, as it continues to undermine trust by pushing its own vision without taking Sudan’s conditions into account. The US’s insistence on keeping the UAE at the table, the source added, only deepens doubts about Washington’s seriousness.

Burhan and his commanders insist they will not negotiate from a position of weakness. “Negotiation now means surrender, not peace,” a source in Burhan’s office told Mada Masr. The military, the source stressed, will only enter talks after securing further battlefield gains in Kordofan and Darfur.

Speaking to a group of Sudanese in Doha on Thursday, Burhan said that Sudan would never “mortgage” its sovereignty to any state, no matter the relationship, and vowed the military would not lay down its arms until the sieges of Fasher, Babanusa and Kadugli are lifted and “every inch of Sudanese land” is liberated.

A second Foreign Ministry source acknowledged that this uncompromising stance puts the government in direct confrontation with the Quad. But Khartoum, the source said, stands by its principle of no talks while the UAE remains involved. “Legitimacy is taken, not given,” the source added.

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Military seeks to expand in North Kordofan after retaking Bara

After recapturing the strategic city of Bara last week, the military is seeking to expand its foothold in North Kordofan, aiming both to secure the Saderat Road linking Omdurman to Obeid and open up the desert axis stretching west from Bara into North Darfur.

Following its advance into Bara, the military attempted to push toward the strategic RSF-held Gabra al-Sheikh locality, where limited clashes broke out on Monday and Tuesday, a military source told Mada Masr. The operations, the source added, were backed by continuous airstrikes targeting RSF positions and gatherings.

An RSF source, however, maintained that Gabra al-Sheikh remains fortified against any assault, adding that the group is amassing reinforcements in preparation to retake Bara.

According to the source, the RSF launched an attack on Wednesday on Ad al-Sidr, east of Gabra al-Sheikh, killing several military officers, soldiers and allied fighters, and seizing several military vehicles.

Heavy fighting also broke out on Monday in the Kazgil axis, south of Obeid. A senior military officer told Mada Masr that the RSF lost dozens of fighters and 15 combat vehicles in the clashes.

Over the next two days, three RSF strategic drones were downed over Obeid after the military activated a new air defense system to shield the city, the officer added.

The officer argued that in Kordofan’s flat terrain, the military holds a decisive advantage through its air power and artillery — conditions for which the RSF is ill-prepared, being unaccustomed to defensive warfare in such landscapes, they added.

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Heavy fighting in Fasher, civilian deaths mount

Dozens of civilians were killed in Fasher this week as the RSF steps up its campaign to capture the military’s last stronghold in western Sudan, escalating artillery fire and drone attacks while launching repeated incursions.

On Thursday, RSF units attempted to advance from the city’s northern axis but fell into an ambush by the military and its allied joint force, a field source in the force told Mada Masr.

The RSF pushed as far as the former UNAMID headquarters, now used by the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minawi, before being forced back to the outskirts. Several RSF fighters were killed and vehicles destroyed in the clashes.

Later that day, the joint force said it repelled what it described as the RSF’s largest assault yet in terms of troop numbers and military equipment, marked by the heaviest use of strategic and suicide drones alongside artillery shelling.

According to the field source, the RSF has stepped up attacks throughout the week under heavy bombardments, but the military, joint forces and mobilized fighters have so far held their ground.

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers celebrating after repelling an RSF attack on the city of Fasher earlier this month. Source: Hamza al-Tahir on Facebook.

Civilians once more bore the brunt of the fighting, coming under deliberate fire. The Coordination of Resistance Committees in Fasher said large numbers of civilians were killed on Thursday when RSF fire struck the neighborhoods of Nasrat, Abu Shouk and Hilla, forcing residents to flee toward the north and west. Most charity kitchens have been forced to shut down, with only a few still operating, according to the group.

The following morning, an RSF strategic drone struck civilians attending Friday prayer at a mosque in the Abu Shouk displacement camp northwest of Fasher, a doctor in the city told Mada Masr.

The Sudanese Doctors Network put the death toll at 43, with many others critically injured. The camp’s emergency room said Abu Shouk’s local administration head Adam Wad al-Sheikh was killed in the attack.

Authorities urged residents of Fasher not to gather for Friday prayers in mosques and pray at home instead to avoid further RSF targeting, a local official told Mada Masr.

The military also said that RSF bombardments on Fasher escalated earlier in the week, with heavy shelling of residential areas on Monday.

As the RSF pressed its assault, the military moved onto the offensive. In a three-hour surprise operation on Tuesday, involving military and joint force units, special operations troops and the civilian protection force, it struck RSF positions, inflicting what it described as significant losses in fighters and equipment.

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