Sudan Nashra: Somalia enters Sudan-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Turkey axis | Sudanese, Ethiopian sources: Trump’s GERD initiative could pave way for further talks with Addis Ababa | Western North Darfur operations cross into Chad again | RSF, military press toward major cities in Kordofan

Ambassadors of Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey arrived in Somalia’s newly created Northeast State this week to attend the inauguration of the region’s leadership. Somali and Sudanese diplomats say the visit is a display of Mogadishu’s entry into the Sudan-Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Turkey axis coalescing around issues of sovereignty and efforts to curb Emirati influence in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

According to the sources, Mogadishu’s decision last week to annul agreements with the UAE followed Sudanese-Somali ministerial-level talks in which Sudan assured Somalia of backing from Riyadh, Cairo and Ankara.

Coordination between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Sudan is not limited to Somalia, but includes joint efforts that push back against Emirati regional policies in the Horn of Africa and in relation to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a source at the Sudanese embassy in Ankara said.

Movement on the GERD file this week has opened a potential diplomatic window for Khartoum. Sudan welcomed United States President Donald Trump’s offer to restart mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam, seeing the initiative as an opening for other negotiation tracks with Addis Ababa that could impose political constraints on Ethiopian behavior, particularly as military activity escalates along the Sudanese-Ethiopian border and Eritrean-Ethiopian tensions rise, a senior Sudanese diplomat and a media source in Addis Ababa told Mada Masr.

As Khartoum calibrates its regional posture, its military at home remains embroiled in battles across Sudan’s west. In Kordofan and Darfur, military forces are pulled between defense and offense as the RSF presses its advances. 

In Kordofan, days of fighting saw RSF advances bring clashes close to Khartoum State, while the military moved along two fronts in an attempt to break the siege on Dalang in South Kordofan.

A former military officer told Mada Masr that the RSF has deployed substantial forces across a wide belt in Kordofan, running from north to south and southwest, with the aim of blocking any military advance toward Darfur.

The few remaining military-held areas in Darfur’s Dar Zaghawa territory bordering Chad have seen weeks of escalating violence, as the RSF seeks to seize control and secure supply routes from southern Libya through Chad. Between December 22 and January 16, RSF attacks killed more than 103 people and forced 18,000 families to flee, according to the Tina Emergency Room.

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Somalia enters Sudan-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Turkey axis

As Sudan’s regional alignment with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey extends beyond Sudan’s own borders and immediate neighborhood, Somalia has joined the axis in a coordinated bid to counter Emirati influence in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, according to Somali and Sudanese diplomats and a former Sudanese intelligence source.

On Saturday in Las Anod — the capital of Somalia’s newly created Northeast State, reclaimed from UAE-aligned Somaliland in 2023 — the ambassadors of Turkey, Sudan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia attended the inauguration of the region’s leadership alongside senior officials from the Somali federal government — a joint visit the sources described as a display of the alliance.

Officials in Mogadishu saw the growing alignment between Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Egypt as a “good chance” to counter the UAE’s influence in the Red Sea, according to a source at Somalia’s Foreign Ministry — a calculation formed in the wake of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late December. Sudan’s diplomatic moves, particularly in coordinating around sovereignty issues and Red Sea security, allowed Somalia to act against the UAE, canceling all agreements with the Gulf state, without major obstacles or needing to move independently.

While preventing Sudan’s collapse remains a primary driver of the Sudan-Egypt-Turkey axis, a second key objective is stopping the spread of chaos and pushing back UAE influence across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, according to the source — an arrangement that creates a natural window for Mogadishu to pursue its regional interests within the axis.

The Las Anod visit, the source told Mada Masr, underscores that this emerging axis is not only active in Sudan, but extends into Somalia in defense of its sovereign unity and against efforts to fragment the state or invest in its internal divisions, sending a clear message of resistance to the UAE’s attempts to intervene in Somali affairs.

Last week, Somalia’s federal government annulled all agreements with the UAE in what it described as a decision to protect its sovereignty. “The UAE did not conduct itself as a single, independent state in its dealing with Somalia,” the Somali president said in a speech on January 13. “On numerous occasions, we urged them to treat Somalia as one country and to cease the covert approach of engaging through multiple channels, undertaking activities inside our country without the knowledge of the federal government.” The annulment, however, has no effect on Somaliland-UAE relations, with the UAE operating a base out of Bosaso that has been linked to arms transfers to the RSF. 

In early January, Abu Dhabi transported the head of the UAE-backed Yemeni Southern Transitional Council and former member of the Presidential Leadership Council Aidarus al-Zubaidi from Somaliland to Mogadishu and then on to the UAE.

Sudan and Somalia had held ministerial-level talks in January, during which the Sudanese government provided assurances to Somalia regarding Mogadishu’s contemplated move to sever ties with the UAE, four diplomats, two from each country’s foreign ministry, told Mada Masr. Sudanese officials told their Somali counterparts that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey would stand by Mogadishu should it pursue this path, according to the four sources.

The Somali side had voiced concerns, aware that such a step would place them entirely at odds with the UAE, particularly given Egypt and Turkey’s strategic ties with Abu Dhabi. This made strong guarantees necessary, which Sudan pushed for, including alternative economic cooperation that Riyadh could offer if Somalia withdrew from the UAE agreements, according to one of the Somali sources.

A former senior Sudanese intelligence source said the Sudanese-Saudi-Egyptian rapprochement should not be dismissed as circumstantial coordination. Rather, they described it as a structural shift in Sudan’s regional posture. The joint presence in Las Anod, they said, is a practical outcome of this rapprochement rather than its cause.

A source at the Sudanese embassy in Ankara said coordination between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Sudan on multiple levels is not limited to Somalia, but includes a series of talks and joint policies that push back against Emirati regional policies in the Horn of Africa and in relation to the GERD.

“Saudi Arabia and Egypt are intent on preventing any influence that threatens the shared Egyptian-Sudanese water security or enables Addis Ababa to move forward without a binding agreement on the dam — which remains a constant point of tension between them and the UAE, given Abu Dhabi’s relationship with Ethiopia,” a senior Sudanese diplomat told Mada Masr.

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Sudanese, Ethiopian sources: Trump’s call to restart GERD mediation could pave way for further talks with Addis Ababa amid heightened border tensions

US President Donald Trump has offered to restart mediation efforts between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD “to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all,” he said in a letter to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Friday.

The same letter was forwarded to Transitional Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who responded the following day, welcoming and supporting Trump’s initiative to reach “sustainable and satisfactory solutions that safeguard everyone’s rights.”

In Khartoum, the initiative is being read less as a technical intervention than as a political development directly intersecting with heightened border security tensions with Ethiopia, according to a senior diplomatic source at Sudan’s Foreign Ministry, who also serves on the ministry’s technical committee on the GERD.

According to the source, accelerating military mobilization in border regions has positioned the American initiative as a possible political mechanism for managing escalation risks by Ethiopia, whether by supporting armed groups or directly attacking border areas. An agreement on the dam, the source explained, could open the door to other negotiation tracks.

Sudanese officials have been placed on heightened alert by intelligence they obtained on RSF training camps set up inside Ethiopian territory, rising Ethiopian-Eritrean tensions and the deployment of forces at a major new military base under construction in Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz region bordering Sudan. In response, the military has bolstered its presence across the eastern and southeastern states, military and state officials previously told Mada Masr.

Last week, RSF forces crossed into Sudan from Ethiopian territory in what a senior officer described as an attempt to secure supply routes by creating a buffer zone.

An advisor to the TSC said this reality has pushed Sudan to redefine the GERD file as a complex national security issue, “where water intersects with borders and diplomacy with military deployments.” Khartoum, they said, does not seek escalation with Addis Ababa — either over the dam or the border — but “will not allow Ethiopian support for the RSF.”

The advisor added that Sudan’s alignment with Egypt in responding to Trump’s invitation is a natural extension of broader convergence between the two countries, rooted in a shared assessment of emerging threats from its shared neighbor. Sudan, they said, is undergoing strategic repositioning and is increasingly inclined to coordinate its regional stances with Cairo, especially on issues touching sovereignty and national security.

Sisi praised Trump’s call and affirmed Egypt’s commitment to “serious and constructive cooperation with the Nile Basin countries, based on the principles of international law, in a manner that achieves shared interests without causing harm to any party.”

A media source in Addis Ababa likewise said border tensions have given Khartoum added incentive to back any international mediation track that could impose political constraints on Ethiopian behavior.

Sudan understands that continued mutual mobilization drains state resources at a moment of extreme fragility and risks undermining efforts to restore administrative and security control internally, particularly amid the return of government institutions to Khartoum, according to the source.

A source at Sudan’s embassy in Addis Ababa said Khartoum has assured the Ethiopian government that its support for the American initiative should not be interpreted as hostile alignment against Addis Ababa. Sudan clarified that its position falls within a call for peaceful solutions and respect for international law, according to the source.

The Sudanese government has avoided any provocative messaging on the GERD dispute, including refraining from linking late-September floods to the dam in its public statements.

Trump’s letter was also copied to Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie, as well as to Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

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Burhan reconstitutes Sudan-Saudi Arabia strategic council

Transitional Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan issued a decree on Saturday reconstituting the Supreme Council for Strategic Cooperation and Coordination between Sudan and Saudi Arabia.

According to Sudan’s news agency, the decision implements agreements reached during Burhan’s meeting with bin Salman in December and reflects both countries’ efforts to elevate bilateral relations to strategic partnership across all fields.

A source close to the Saudi embassy in Sudan said the council should be viewed as a permanent institutional framework linking Sudan to the Saudi-Egyptian axis. Burhan, they added, understands that managing a fragmented, wartime state requires more than international recognition; it demands engaging in a regional security system led by Riyadh and coordinated with Cairo.

The source said the council is intended to serve overlapping roles. The first is to provide Sudan with a political, security and economic umbrella during the reconstruction phase, including ports, Red Sea projects and investment. Most crucially, they said, it anchors Sudan to Saudi-Egyptian regional agendas in the Horn of Africa, spanning Somalia and Ethiopia.

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Fighting spreads across Kordofan as both sides press toward major cities

Military strikes hit RSF positions in أولاد بخيت, West Kordofan, published January 21. Courtesy of military-aligned Telegram channel @sport6780

Kordofan has seen consecutive days of fighting, with both sides seeking to advance on major cities. While the military pushed toward South Kordofan’s Dalang along the eastern and northern axis, the RSF advanced toward Obeid in North Kordofan and mounted attacks that brought fighting close to Omdurman, before being pushed back on both fronts.

Heavy clashes broke out on January 14 in villages near Habila, east of Dalang, involving the RSF and its ally, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, a field source told Mada Masr. The source said the military was trying to seize Habila in order to break the siege on Dalang, which has been jointly imposed by the two allies for nearly two years.

The SPLM-N denied any advances into Habila, saying in a statement that it controls the area jointly with the RSF and has maintained control over all access routes without any significant breach.

The following day, an RSF drone struck Dalang’s main market, killing and wounding several civilians, a senior figure in the city told Mada Masr. The Sudanese Doctors Network later said the attack killed seven people, with 32 others injured.

The military attempted another push toward Dalang along the northern axis on January 16. Military forces stormed the Breka Moussa area, east of Hammadi, a military source said. The operation aimed to secure the area and advance toward the town of Debeibat en-route to Dalang.

To the north, the military and the RSF exchanged control on Sunday over the strategic area of Dankog, north of Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. A second military source said RSF forces stormed the area after destroying defenses, but the military recaptured it within hours and pursued RSF fighters to the outskirts of Bara.

Dankong is considered a pivotal military position in North Kordofan’s operations and a key defensive line for the cities of Obeid and Bara. The area also briefly changed hands during clashes in late December.

Clashes also broke out further east on Monday, near Rahid al-Nuba in North Kordofan, around 109 kilometers west of Omdurman in Khartoum State. The RSF engaged the First Elite Brigade of the General Intelligence Service in the areas of Wadi al-Hout and Ad Sidr, according to a third military source.

The source said RSF forces were repelled after sustaining heavy losses in personnel and equipment. Military aircraft played an active role alongside ground units, pursuing retreating RSF fighters and destroying large numbers of vehicles in Um Sayala and Um Gerfa.

A former military officer told Mada Masr that the RSF assaults around Rahid al-Nuba were not intended to breach military defenses and advance toward Omdurman, despite claims by some RSF leaders. Rather, they said, the attacks aimed to stretch military lines and hinder their advance, allowing the RSF to secure its positions in Um Sayala, Um Gerfa, Gabra al-Sheikh, Bara, and as far as Sodari.

At this stage, the officer said, the RSF has deployed substantial forces across a wide belt stretching from Um Sayala in the north, through western Obeid, down to Debeibat, Habila and Babanusa in the south and southwest. The objective, they added, is to block any military advance toward Darfur.

According to the officer, towns and villages along this axis have seen heavy concentrations of RSF fighters and vehicles, supported by open supply lines and high maneuvering ability, complicating efforts by the military to push westward, retake Bara or lift the sieges on Dalang and Kadugli in South Kordofan.

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Western North Darfur operations cross into Chad again

N’Djamena issued a “final warning” to Sudan’s warring parties following the killing of seven Chadian soldiers in a cross-border incursion by the RSF late last week.

Three Chadian military sources told Mada Masr that RSF forces crossed into Chadian territory and attacked military positions on January 15.

The attack followed weeks of RSF offensives in western North Darfur’s Dar Zaghawa territory, as the group seeks to seize the remaining military-held areas after the fall of Fasher in late October.

The escalation had already spilled across the border in late December, when a Chadian military camp was struck and two soldiers were killed, and has driven widespread killings and displacement around Tina, Karnoi and Ambro, a source from the military-allied joint force said.

The targeting, they added, carried a clear tribal dimension.

The Zaghawa tribe — long at odds with the Janjaweed, the RSF’s precursor — forms the core of the joint force of the Darfuri armed movements fighting alongside the military in Darfur and Kordofan. The community spans both sides of the Sudan-Chad border.

According to the joint force source, the attacks have angered Zaghawa leaders in Chad. President Mahamat Idriss Deby himself hails from the Zaghawa tribe, as do several senior commanders in the Chadian military, they said.

The RSF denied any tribal motives. An RSF source told Mada Masr that the group’s operations were purely military and were aimed solely at securing Sudan’s western border up to the tri-border area with Libya and Chad, and said clashes with Chadian forces occurred by accident.

In a statement, the RSF expressed regret over the incident, stressing its respect for Chad’s sovereignty and borders and attributing the clash to an unintentional error during field operations, citing the similarity of terrain and border areas.

The warning from N’Djamena followed renewed fighting on January 13 and 14 in the Gargira and Mastoura areas along the border. The joint force said it retook Gargira and surrounding villages, claiming heavy RSF losses, including dozens of destroyed or seized vehicles and the capture of fighters.

Civilians have borne the brunt of the escalation. The Tina Emergency Room said that RSF drone attacks carried out between December 22 and January 16 killed more than 103 people and injured 99 others in border areas.

The group said the attacks also involved looting, village burnings and the displacement of more than 18,000 families, leaving large numbers of civilians without shelter. It said that residents of Tina and surrounding areas are living in constant fear, as repeated drone strikes on public spaces and facilities have forced most services to shut down.

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UN High Commissioner concludes Sudan visit, meets RSF delegation in Nairobi

United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk traveled to Nairobi on Sunday to where he met with RSF leaders after concluding a five-day visit to Sudan.

An informed source in the RSF’s legal advisory office said the Nairobi meeting was chaired by legal advisor Mohamed al-Mokhtar al-Nour, along with Ezz Eddin al-Safy, head of the National Authority for Humanitarian Access of the RSF-led Tasis alliance, and advisor Al-Basha Tabig.

During the meeting, the RSF delegation presented what the source described as measures taken in Fasher to hold perpetrators of crimes accountable and to end impunity in areas under RSF control.

The delegation also stressed the importance of field visits by Turk and the UN independent expert on human rights in Sudan Radhouane Nouicer to Darfur and Kordofan in order to gain firsthand insight into humanitarian and security conditions, according to the source.

The Nairobi meeting drew criticism from some Sudanese actors, particularly military-allied armed movements, according to a source at the Cabinet Affairs Ministry.

Turk’s engagement with the RSF came after a visit to Sudan from January 14 to 18, during which he met senior government officials in Port Sudan and Northern State, civil society representatives and displaced people who had fled fighting in Darfur and Kordofan. He then flew to Nairobi for talks with the RSF.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said Turk “urged all parties to the conflict [...] to ensure that the crimes committed during and after the takeover of Fasher are not repeated in Kadugli, Dalang and the wider Kordofan region.”