Sudan Nashra: Military push to connect White Nile, North Kordofan capitals | Turkish-Libyan mediation | Hamdok heads to Cairo

After almost a year of fighting that has displaced more than 10 million people, changed the urban landscape of Sudan’s capital, and reignited wars in fragile ethnic communities, the war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has yet to witness a definitive breakthrough in the street battles in the cities of the capital, Khartoum, despite the military’s sustained push forward. 

Clashes are continuing in Omdurman, where the military has recaptured several key areas, while battles of attrition in northern Bahri persist. Additionally, military airstrikes have targeted the RSF on the border separating the White Nile and Khartoum states.

In other conflict-affected regions in the country, the RSF maintains control over four out of five states in Darfur. 

Similarly, control remains unchanged in the states of  west and south Kordofan. But in North Kordofan, the military is making a slow advance, as they control the state’s capital of Obeid and substantial swathes of the region. The military’s Fifth Infantry Division in Obeid expanded its military operations in the east of the state along the road linking Obeid and the White Nile city of Tandalti.    

In Kosti, the capital of the White Nile State, the military’s 18th Division is gearing up to try to connect Kosti and Obeid. Military sources told Mada Masr that Deputy Commander Shams Eddin al-Kabashi is personally overseeing the division’s armament and combat preparations to carry out the operation. 

In the neighboring state of Gezira, the RSF has committed violations against citizens in 50 villages, according to a database Mada Masr has built since December, when the paramilitary first force took over large swaths of the state.

On the political front, African mediation efforts persist in seeking a resolution to the Sudanese crisis. A delegation from the Tripartite Mechanism on the Sudan Crisis, appointed by African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki, arrived in Port Sudan this week after Sudan suspended its membership in the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD). 

In addition to meeting with the Sovereignty Council President and military commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the delegation engaged with various political forces, including Islamists and armed movement leaders. 

In the Ugandan capital, Kampala, various workshops are underway, organized either by the Civil Front for Democracy or centers that accommodate Islamist figures as well. 

Finally, confirming Mada Masr’s reporting last week of Egypt’s intent to open pathways with Abdalla Hamdok given Burhan’s setbacks. The former prime minister and head of the Civil Front for Democracy will arrive for talks in Cairo tomorrow. 

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Military operations to connect Kosti and Obeid

In the strategic city of Obeid, the capital of the North Kordofan State, the military is preparing for a decisive battle to move eastward into the White Nile State, connecting its forces in Obeid and the White Nile State capital of Kotsi. 

Leading the charge from Obeid will be the Fifth Infantry Division camel cavalry, which is a bulwark of the Sudanese military. On the other side, the military’s 18th Division will advance from Kotsi. 

Military sources in the 18th Division in Kotsi indicate that the military operations aim to link North Kordofan with the White Nile State to cut off combat supplies to the RSF, who have been using North Kordofan as a transit point to supply their forces in the Khartoum and Gezira states. 

A military source in North Kordofan echoed the intent of the coordinated operation, telling Mada Masr that the military is engaging in extensive and continuous operations to undermine the RSF’s military capabilities in the eastern and northeastern regions of the state.

North Kordofan’s capital, Obeid, serves as a critical link connecting central Sudan to its west and other Kordofan states. It holds economic significance as a hub for crop markets and fuel and food supplies entering from Sudan’s eastern states through Kosti. Additionally, the military relies on Obeid’s Fifth Infantry Division in extensive infantry operations, with the camel cavalry forces participating in battles in Omdurman, while maintaining their presence at the Wadi Sidna military base north of Omdurman.

The RSF intermittently attacked Obeid in the early months of the war, given its military significance due to its connection to Omdurman and the fact that it holds a military airbase whose airstrip was previously destroyed by the paramilitary group. They also engaged in looting power stations and disrupting operations at the oil refinery.

Local civil administrations have pledged to block military supplies to the RSF through their areas and have committed to abstaining from participating in any military operations against the Sudanese Armed Forces.

Major General Kafi Tayara, the commander of the Popular Defense Forces in South Kordofan State and an ally of the Sudanese military, initiated a social campaign with local tribal administrations in Kordofan. The campaign aims to garner support for the Sudanese military and prevent the RSF from using the tribes’ territories in Kordofan for their supply routes. 

Tayara played a significant role in securing Dalang city and reclaiming the Habila area from the RSF.

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In Omdurman, one of the three cities that make up the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, the military has continued its advance in the street battles against the RSF over the past weeks. 

The military captured Hilal stadium and its surrounding areas and conducted incursions into the western and southwestern regions of Omdurman.

The Sudanese Hilal football club’s stadium is located a few meters south of al-Arda road which stretches from the east to the west of the city. The military has managed to connect its forces in the military area of Karrari to the north and those in the military area of Omdurman to the Engineers Corps in the south after gaining control over extensive parts of the road. 

Meanwhile, the RSF is positioned to the far west of the road, utilizing it to link its forces at the radio and television headquarters to the Mulazmeen neighborhood, which overlooks the western bank of the White Nile and is close to the Shambat bridge.

Furthermore, the armed forces are engaged in battles in the surroundings of the radio and television headquarters, where they have intensified their grip, employing drones and anti-tank guns in the tall buildings, where RSF snipers are positioned.

A field military source told Mada Masr that assault forces from several military units of the Sudanese military have encircled the radio and television headquarters and are preparing to storm it in the coming days.

In Bahri, one of the cities of the Sudanese capital, the RSF attacked the Hattab military camp in the east of the city. According to a military source in the camp, the armed forces destroyed RSF combat vehicles and equipment, while also chasing down what remained of their fighters.

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Widescale RSF violations in Gezira State

In Gezira State, the economic heart of Sudan renowned for hosting one of the largest agricultural projects in the Arab and African regions, the RSF’s violations against residents have continued since February 5, with ongoing disruptions in communication services and internet access for mobile phones.

In December of last year, the RSF entered Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira, nearly unopposed after the mysterious withdrawal of the Sudanese military following three days of battles to the east of the city. Since then, the RSF has expanded across the state, which comprises hundreds of villages and several cities devoid of military zones, vehicles, or camps.

Since December, Mada Masr has spoken to villagers and those displaced from Gezira to build a database of violations committed by the RSF. Based on the information collected, 50 villages have witnessed instances of killing, theft, abuse of civilians and seizure of property by the paramilitary group. 

In this context, Mohamed Abdel Hakam, a leader in the Civil Front for Democracy, told Mada Masr that the group unequivocally condemns the RSF’s breach of the Addis Ababa Declaration through their expansive violations, especially in Gezira. 

Abdel Hakam asserted that the extensive crimes committed by the RSF in the areas under their control are reprehensible and must be immediately halted, not only in Gezira but also in Darfur, the Kordofan states and Khartoum.

The Civil Front for Democracy leader told Mada Masr he believes that the ultimate resolution to the catastrophic repercussions lies in ending the war as the root cause. He added that halting the war is the only guarantee to stop grave violations against Sudanese civilians.

A source in the RSF told Mada Masr that Gezira is divided among three leaderships of the RSF. Lieutenant Colonel Abdel Rahman al-Bishy’s forces control the southern part, Abu Agla Keikel’s forces the eastern, and General Galha Rahma Mahdi forces are in charge of the western half. Battles occasionally erupt between these forces, according to the source.

Meanwhile, the General Intelligence Services’ operations forces initiated military offensives in the south and southwest of Wad Madani. Combat and surveillance drones were deployed for the first time in Wad Madani and its vicinity, according to a military field source in the area.

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New initiative on the table

Sources from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that Sudan has agreed to a Turkish-Libyan initiative for conducting indirect negotiations with the RSF. The sources stated that the initiative is aligned with the Jeddah talks, which have so far failed to produce results, despite a broad framework agreement to allow the provision of aid and find a pathway to end the war. 

The Turkish-Libyan initiative is regarded as a new path in the Sudanese crisis. 

Last week, Burhan visited Libya, followed by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”.

Sudanese diplomatic sources told Mada Masr that the upcoming round of negotiation is not expected to offer any new prospects beyond the previously agreed upon Jeddah Declaration, signed by the RSF in Jeddah.

The sources stated that the Sudanese state’s position in the negotiations will hinge on working to ensure the RSF’s compliance with the Jeddah outcomes.

While Sudan’s government is open to engaging in indirect negotiations, it will not compromise on any outcomes outlined in the Jeddah Declaration, signed on May 11 of last year, according to the source. 

The diplomatic sources anticipate that the RSF may resist implementing the outcomes due to Hemedti’s inability to control his forces. The sources dismissed the notion that negotiations would lead to halting military operations, as they are irrelevant to the current process. Instead, they will start where the Jeddah talks ended, namely focused on the provision of aid to the countless at-risk communities the war has produced.

Regarding the discussions in the Bahraini capital, Manama, held in January between the military and the RSF, a source from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry stated that the government did not sign any agreement. The source added that the RSF set unacceptable political conditions, primarily related to Hemedti’s position and his family's economic interests, rather than focusing on war-related matters and its ramifications.

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Hamdok heads to Cairo

Abdalla Hamdok, the former Sudanese prime minister and head of the Civil Front for Democracy, will arrive in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, on Friday. 

Front member Abdel Hakam told Mada Masr that Hamdok's visit to Cairo is part of the political and diplomatic efforts undertaken by the organization to urge regional and international communities to rally for a stronger push to end the war, beyond what is currently offered. He highlighted Egypt's pivotal role in Sudan’s case, given the historical ties between the two countries.

Last week, a senior Egyptian official told Mada Masr that Cairo has initiated arrangements to engage Hamdok and close associates from the Freedom and Change Coalition, after previously opposing the former prime minister’s advancement in the political scene.

This initiative aims to ensure that Hamdok does not drift away from Cairo amid his contacts with the United Arab Emirates and Western powers, who have supported his return to the forefront of the political scene, the source added. 

When asked about the possibility of Hamdok meeting with the Egypt-aligned Democratic Bloc in Cairo during his visit on Friday, Abdel Hakam said, "Egypt has opened its doors wide to expand the civil front against the war. However, there is no room for the Islamist movement or its fronts to engage in this broad alliance."

Abdel Hakam highlighted ongoing communication with armed movements to establish a unified front for an upcoming “foundational conference” in the latter half of Ramadan, expressing hope for the participation of all anti-war forces. 

He also noted that communications with both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF have not ceased. 

"We previously got a green light for a meeting with the military commander, despite delays in responding to convene this meeting,” he said. “However, we still believe it is possible due to its critical importance in pushing for a negotiated solution to end the war, address its roots and develop shared visions to mitigate its catastrophic consequences.”

Other sources in the Civil Front for Democracy told Mada Masr that the front is pursuing further engagements with the military leadership to lay down the groundwork for a comprehensive resolution to the conflict and secure a ceasefire to address humanitarian concerns. This process aims to ensure continuity, restore the path to civil democratic transition, implement institutional reform projects, and undertake reconstruction efforts to rebuild what has been destroyed by the conflict.

The sources said that the front’s communication committee has maintained contact with all anti-war forces, including what they described as the “revolution’s forces” and the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu. 

The sources attributed the delay in convening the foundational conference to the front’s commitment to engaging with democratic forces to achieve the broadest possible participation.

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Meanwhile, African diplomatic efforts continue to try to push forward a resolution to the Sudanese crisis. A delegation from the African Union’s Tripartite Mechanism on the Sudan Crisis arrived in Sudan this week. The delegation met with Burhan and other political forces. 

Sudanese diplomatic sources told Mada Masr that Burhan informed the delegation of the need to reinstate Sudan's membership in the African Union, arguing that freezing Sudan's membership contradicts the African Union's efforts to play a role in Sudan's peace process.

Military-aligned political forces in Port Sudan also met with the tripartite mechanism delegation. 

In a press conference attended by Mada Masr, Secretary General of the Popular Congress Party Amin Mahmoud said that the National Islamic Front parties, including the Popular Congress, met with the African Union delegation and conveyed a unified stance on four key issues.

These issues include backing the Sudanese military as a national institution responsible for protecting the country, stressing the need for intra-Sudanese dialogue within the country without excluding any party, upholding national sovereignty and rejecting external interference such as that from the United Arab Emirates, and condemning the RSF’s violations against Sudanese citizens.

Mahmoud criticized the African Union for its silence on the entry of African mercenaries into the country and its lack of response toward the UAE which he accused of fueling the flames of war in a country that is a founding member of the union.