Sudan Nashra: Fasher battle begins amid fears of outcome | Sudanese Armed Forces seek ceasefire renewal with SPLM (al-Hilu)

The long-awaited battle of Fasher has finally erupted, marking a critical juncture in Sudan's ongoing war which is now in its second year. This pivotal battle is poised to reshape the country's political and military landscape for years to come.

The conflict surrounding Fasher is rife with military, strategic, social and historical implications, fueling its rapid escalation since May 12. Dozens of civilians were killed and hundreds wounded against a backdrop of escalating rageful political rhetoric, positioning Fasher to potentially evolve into an unforgiving battleground. 

Fasher's battle could herald a new era. The Sudanese Armed Forces and their allies could alter the course in the short, medium and long term by ousting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from Fasher and subsequently pursuing them across Darfur. Alternatively, it could see the RSF consolidating a de facto rule over the entire region, which would carry profound military and political implications.

On the other hand, social affiliations serve as a powerful driving force in Fasher’s conflict. While such affiliations are at play alongside political and military motives within the Sudanese military and their allies, it is the local populace in Fasher that feels the impact more acutely. Left with nowhere to flee within the region, many fear a repeat of the atrocities witnessed in West Darfur's Geneina should the RSF manage to seize control. 

Amid these tensions, Dafrur Governor and leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement Minni Arko Minnawi declared a state of alert and mobilization in Fasher for the citizens to “defend themselves, their properties and their honor,” accusing the RSF of mobilizing fighters from West Africa to launch an assault on Fasher and potentially storm it from all directions.

While the battle only began in full force in the last week, Fasher has been the site of low grade fighting since July 2023, when the RSF began attacking local markets and displacing residents to establish strongholds in their neighborhoods, effectively laying siege to the city on three fronts. This was followed by a military buildup in recent months, with the RSF securing land routes by neutralizing other military defenses in Darfur and subsequently establishing ground routes for the flow of weapons from Chad.

In central Sudan, specifically in Gezira State, the Sudanese military’s advance witnessed a significant retreat back to April 5 positions — before the launch of their current offensive in Gezira — with the most notable retreat occuring on the eastern front. This development has put Gadarif State, east of Gezira, at risk of RSF drone attacks, which have struck the city three times since May 9, according to military sources.

The military’s retreat in Gezira prompted Sudanese Armed Forces Deputy Commander Shams Eddin al-Kabbashi to travel to Faw to reorganize military leadership in the region. According to military sources, Kabbashi made adjustments in the command and control room based on recommendations from military leaders.

Sudanese Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan assured a delegation of Gezira resistance leaders of responding to their demands to arm citizens and mobilize individuals for the "liberation of every inch of Gezira’s lands."

On the political front, Kabbashi arrived in Juba on Thursday where he held talks with Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, the leader of a faction of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement-North, regarding the delivery of humanitarian aid to the faction’s strongholds in the southern Blue Nile and South Kordofan states. The talks did not yield any results. However, the Sudanese state delegation is pushing for the signing of a renewed ceasefire agreement between the two parties, according to an informed source in the delegation who spoke to Mada Masr. 

***

Fasher’s battle begins

Intense clashes erupted on Friday May 10 in Fasher, marking the beginning of the long-awaited battle. The confrontations paused on Saturday before resuming with heightened ferocity on Sunday and escalating further on Wednesday and Thursday.

The RSF launched the first assault on Fasher from the eastern front, infiltrating areas near the Fasher power station, according to military sources in the Sudanese Armed Forces and armed movements who spoke to Mada Masr. However, the RSF claimed that the attack was initiated by the military.

A field source from the Sixth Infantry Division in Fasher told Mada Masr that the RSF are targeting the eastern and northern axes of the city due to the lack of artillery concentration in those areas. The source added that the military refrains from employing heavy weaponry in these areas due to the presence of civilians, which means that the fighting that will ensue will be close combat with clashes occurring at distances as close as 200 meters. Sunday battles saw the joint force — the military-aligned unit composed of members from the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement — and the RSF engaged in confrontations at point-blank range, the source said. 

The RSF predominantly utilized the eastern front, employing either artillery shelling or Katyusha rockets, according to military sources.

Despite the RSF’s denial of instigating the assault on Fasher, as stated by their spokesperson Fateh Gurshi, field commanders from the joint forces told Mada Masr that two RSF units launched the attack on the city.

A commander from the Justice and Equality Movement, led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim, told Mada Masr that the RSF have been actively waging war on Fasher since July 2023. Their tactics involve burning villages surrounding Fasher, disrupting markets and displacing residents present in their controlled areas, whether in the northern, eastern, or southern axis. The RSF implemented a scorched-earth strategy to prevent encirclement of their advanced defenses by the military or the joint force and divided their troops into three main axes, the commander said, adding that the RSF have mobilized over half of their troops in Darfur for the Fasher battle.

The Friday clashes were merely reconnaissance advances, according to a military source in the command and control room in Fasher. The source told Mada Masr that the RSF did not penetrate deep into the city but rather conducted a military maneuver with a single unit, utilizing anti-aircraft weapons in direct confrontations with the military and the joint force. 

A military field source told Mada Masr that the RSF typically adopts an assault wave strategy to weaken a single front, leveraging missile launches and drones — a tactic not observed in the Friday and Sunday clashes. However, the source anticipated that the RSF would resort to drone warfare in Fasher due to its proximity to supply lines coming from Chad.

The military, on the other hand, launched intense airstrikes on RSF positions in the Kabkabiya locality near Fasher over the past week. Military field sources told Mada Masr that RSF supply lines extend to Nyala city, South Darfur, and then to North Darfur’s Kabkabiya via dirt roads, eventually reaching Fasher’s outskirts.

Moreover, the military conducted airdrops on Monday in Fasher over the course of five hours, during which warplanes dropped jamming devices and ammunition for different weapons.

On the humanitarian front, government and medical sources in Fasher told Mada Masr the RSF’s attacks resulted in 27 deaths and left hundreds wounded. Artillery shells struck near the Nahar al-Khairi pediatric clinics, while the RSF targeted power infrastructure, including high-voltage lines and electric transformers, leading to power outages in the city. The power outages disrupted water supply and compromised healthcare services in several facilities, exacerbating the persistent fuel shortages the city was already facing.

Medical sources within the city told Mada Masr that the attacks on Wednesday left around 90 wounded individuals, with some critical cases. 

Civilian sources in Fasher told Mada Masr that Fasher is expected to witness further consecutive attacks, possibly culminating in a decisive battle. 

Some civil leaders anticipated that Fasher would mirror Babanusa in West Kordofan. The leaders told Mada Masr that the RSF is expected to displace and evacuate the population. With forces encircling the city, civilians would face difficulties in exiting. The civilian sources said that the RSF leadership’s resolve to storm Fasher is an uncompromising stance, and that the military and the joint force will not only stand on the defensive but will also launch an offensive once the RSF’s capabilities begin to wane.

***

Tension between the Salamat and Beni Halba tribes escalate

Near Fasher, on the border between North and South Darfur states, indications of an impending conflict surfaced. A local source told Mada Masr that the November 2023 peace agreement between the two parties collapsed due to the substantial armament acquired by both tribes from the RSF. The situation worsened as instances of looting and bandit attacks escalated within the tribe’s territories.

The tribal conflict has influenced the RSF’s deployment in the vicinity of Fasher, with approximately 40 armed combat vehicles withdrawing from the city toward South Darfur, Beni Halba sources told Mada Masr. On the other hand, Salamat sources said that RSF leadership is involved in arming Beni Halba which is leading to assaults on Salamat. 

The threat of an armed confrontation between the two tribes, embroiled in a civil conflict since August 2023 which killed around 750 people, looms large.

The Salamat tribe had seized extensive territories from the Beni Halba tribe, prompting RSF Deputy Commander Abdel Rahim Dagalo to intervene in October 2023 to mediate peace between the tribes. However, his efforts failed to quell the fighting. Subsequently, local leaders from the Rizeigat tribe successfully halted the conflict in November 2023 through a series of reconciliation efforts attended by influential figures associated with the RSF.

Local sources from both tribes told Mada Masr that the pact remains precarious amid the continuous influx of weapons to both sides. The sources said that both parties have requested a cessation of arms flow to avert further conflict, proposing that fighters relocate to neutral zones instead of engaging in clashes within the shared territories of the tribes.

***

Military appoints a new operations leadership in Gezira

In the second visit within a span of ten days, Kabbashi arrived on Monday at the advanced defense positions in Faw City in Gadarif State. These positions serve as a focal point for the forces engaged in the battles to reclaim Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State, from the RSF, who have held control since its capture in December. 

Shortly before Kabbashi’s arrival, the military intercepted a drone attempting to target Shouk Airport in Gadarif, eastern Sudan.

The visit also followed a sudden withdrawal of military units from Gezira’s eastern front to the outskirts of the Khayari area in Gadarif, after having made significant advancement that brought them to the vicinity of the Shabarga area, approximately 37 kilometers east of Wad Madani. 

While rumors of discord within military leadership in the area coincided with the recent military advancements, a senior military officer refuted these claims, telling Mada Masr that Kabbashi’s visit aimed to assess the latest field developments and consolidate arrangements for a broad push toward Wad Madani.

The officer confirmed Major General Adam Haroun’s appointment as a military advisor for the forces in Gezira. Haroun, a prominent military leader, had previously commanded battles to reclaim the radio and television headquarters and the neighborhoods in Old Omdurman in western Khartoum.

Haroun was called out of retirement after months of the outbreak of war. He is recognized as one of the most distinguished generals who maintained a clear stance against the RSF and their leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo since his ascent to power in 2019.

The military, backed by armed movements, popular resistance brigades and mobilized forces, is engaged in the Gezira battles across three main axes: The Faw axis in the east, the Sennar axis to the south and the Managil axis to the west. 

The Managil axis witnessed intense confrontations last week that resulted in the clearing of several villages near the Hosh area from RSF presence, as well as the recovery of several looted combat vehicles and civilian cars.

Beyond military confrontations, the majority of Gezira’s territories endure persistent RSF violations against civilians, according to local activists who spoke to Mada Masr.  

Ten villages — Shadaida, Wad Ajabna, Koz Ahmed, Malga, Fares, Um Gulud, Toba, Selim Anjedwa, Mustafa al-Gureshi and Harga — were subjected to killings, robberies, looting, harassing and forced displacement at the hands of RSF soldiers over the past week, with Harga village bearing the brunt. 

Hakim, an activist from the area, told Mada Masr that the RSF targeted Harga, on the Blue Nile State’s banks, with the aim of looting and seeking revenge against the residents who had defended it and thwarted any RSF intrusion attempts. 

Hakim said that the RSF killed 14 civilians after the residents attempted to defend themselves. He added that the RSF forcibly displaced all inhabitants and prohibited re-entry into Harga to identify and bury the dead, suspecting that the tally is higher given that the artillery shelling directly targeted civilians. The RSF’s capture of Harga and the forced displacement of its residents escalates the risk to the surrounding areas of Sennar, Doba and Faw.

Meanwhile, in the northern region of Gezira, Hasahisa city’s resistance committees reported that the RSF killed three siblings within their home in Fares village after they resisted an attempted raid. 

The resistance committees also reported intense clashes within the city on Monday, pitting different RSF factions against each other, resulting in casualties within their ranks and the imposition of curfews in markets and neighborhoods.

Across Gezira’s border to the west in the neighboring White Nile State, clashes erupted between the military and the RSF on Wednesday. The RSF had launched a major attack with over 30 combat vehicles and dozens of motorcycles carrying RSF soldiers on a military post in the Awag area, north of the state. A field source told Mada Masr that the clashes occurred near Gahawi Teital opposite Wad al-Zaki village. With air support, the military repelled the attack and inflicted significant losses on the RSF attacking force, the source said. 

***

Sudanese military seeks a renewed ceasefire agreement in talks with SPLM-N (al-Hilu)

The initial negotiation rounds between the Sudanese military and Sudan People's Liberation Movement–North (al-Hilu), regarding the delivery of humanitarian aid to the faction’s strongholds in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in addition to a state-controlled areas in the two states, commenced in Juba, the capital of South Sudan. However, the military aims to elevate the agreement to a renewed ceasefire pact between the two parties, who have long been bitter rivals but have operated in cautious alignment in SPLM-N (al-Hilu) strongholds that have seen RSF incursions.

The negotiations were arranged following a visit by Kabbashi to Juba two weeks ago. Both sides had previously agreed on the passage of humanitarian aid from South Sudan, crossing the areas under SPLM-N (al-Hilu) control and extending to the Sudanese state-controlled regions in South and West Kordofan and Blue Nile State.

The military’s delegation was led by the Sudanese Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yassin Ibrahim Yassin, while the SPLM-N delegation was led by Hilu himself.

According to senior sources within the Sudanese delegation who spoke to Mada Masr, the negotiations are anticipated to culminate in the signing of a renewed ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese state and the SPLM-N (al-Hilu).

Since 2011, the two parties have been in conflict in South Kordofan and southern Blue Nile State. Following the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir and leading up to the outbreak of the war in 2023, the Sudanese military and the rebel faction, the third most powerful force in the country, existed in a precarious state of no-war and no-peace, renewing a ceasefire agreement on an annual basis. 

Kabbashi arrived in Juba on Thursday to engage in broader consultations with leaders in South Sudan. Sources who spoke to Mada Masr expect him to oversee the negotiation session to work toward upgrading the agreement to a ceasefire accord.