Sudan Nashra: Clashes at presidential palace gates | Agar threatens exit from AU | Sudan bans Kenyan imports, plans legal action | South Sudanese opposition deputy chair: SPLM-IO suspends participation in govt

As Sudan’s war nears its second anniversary, the military is closer than ever to reclaiming the capital, Khartoum, from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). With only a few RSF pockets remaining, the military is advancing toward the RSF-held presidential palace, placing their forces within the complex and the nearby Arab Market area in central Khartoum under siege. Meanwhile, the military continued its advance from northern White Nile State toward Jebel Awliya in the far southwest of Khartoum.

Regaining control of the capital would grant Sudan’s government a new political standing on local, regional and international levels while dealing a severe blow to the RSF. The paramilitary group’s cohesion is already in question, even in Darfur, where it holds four of the region’s five states.

Once Khartoum is secured, the military’s remaining battles will be concentrated in Darfur and Kordofan. 

The military advance has been accompanied by a diplomatic push led throughout March by Transitional Sovereignty Council Deputy Chair Malik Agar in an African tour to Djibouti, Uganda, Rwanda and South Africa. In Pretoria on Tuesday, Agar stated that the war is expected to end by late April in most parts of Sudan. 

Throughout his tour, Agar repeatedly pointed to the fragmentation of RSF leadership, suggesting that its command has splintered into multiple centers, including ones established by mercenaries fighting in its ranks.

Agar has also continued to raise concerns over Kenya’s support for the RSF, after Nairobi hosted in February the RSF conference in which the group and its allies signed a charter to establish a parallel government. Agar said that Kenya’s actions violated the charters of the African Union and the United Nations, calling Nairobi’s stance hostile to Sudan.

Sudan has escalated its retaliatory measures against Kenya, imposing an immediate ban on all Kenyan imports last week, leaving shipments of Kenyan tea — one of Sudan’s main imports from the country — stranded at Sudanese and Kenyan ports.

On the battlefield, the military secured the border with South Sudan in White Nile State through a coordinated operation involving forces from the White Nile, Sennar and Blue Nile states. Defeated RSF fighters retreated to South Sudan, bringing further instability to a country already at risk of sliding back into civil war. A Sudanese intelligence source warned that the RSF’s escape to South Sudan poses a threat not only to Juba but also to other countries, including Kenya.

South Sudan’s security and political situation grows increasingly precarious, especially after the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) — signatory to the 2018 revitalized peace agreement that ended the civil war — suspended its participation in the transitional structures established under the deal.

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Sudan bans Kenyan imports, announces further escalatory measures

In a significant escalation against Kenya, Sudan imposed an immediate ban on all Kenyan imports, blocking shipments through ports, border crossings and airports. The move, announced by Trade and Supply Minister Omar Ahmed on March 13, comes in response to Nairobi’s role in hosting the February conference where the RSF and its allies signed a political charter to lay the groundwork for a parallel government. 

Ahmed stated that the directive, Decree  6/2025, was based on recommendations by a committee formed by the Transitional Sovereignty Council to manage Sudan’s relations with Kenya. He said the ban is a measure to safeguard Sudan’s national interests, assert its sovereignty and protect its national security.

Speaking to Mada Masr, Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Amin al-Fadel framed the ban as part of broader punitive measures against Kenya due to President William Ruto’s policies, which he said have consistently undermined Sudan. Fadel accused Ruto of conspiring against Sudan, in light of his rapprochement with RSF leaders, and facilitating talks aimed at establishing a parallel government.

Sudan, he added, has begun a phased response to Kenya based on recommendations from technical committees. The retaliatory measures include banning all Kenyan products and plans to file extensive regional and international complaints, he said.

The ban follows Sudan’s decision last month to recall its ambassador to Nairobi in protest of Kenya’s role in hosting the RSF conference. 

A Sudanese security source told Mada Masr that Ruto’s actions serve neither his state’s interests nor its people but are instead an attempt to appease the United Arab Emirates and what the source described as "gold smuggling mafias."

Sudan has continuously accused Abu Dhabi of fully backing the RSF and involvement in smuggling Sudanese gold to the UAE through RSF-controlled mines in Darfur.  

In Sudan’s diplomatic battle against the RSF’s attempt to establish its own sphere of influence, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef visited Kenya in January, holding talks with his Kenyan counterpart and Ruto, a Sudanese Foreign Ministry source told Mada Masr.

During the visit, Ruto pledged not to support any efforts to establish a parallel government, but later reneged due to his ties to RSF-controlled gold companies, the source said. 

The ban immediately struck Kenyan-Sudanese trade flows, with 1.3 billion Kenyan shillings (around US$10 million) worth of Kenyan tea exports stranded at ports.

Roughly 320 containers of Kenyan tea bound for Sudan are now stuck at Kenya’s Kilindini Harbour. The shipment represents 40 percent of Sudanese tea orders from Kenyan suppliers, a Sudanese import-export source at the harbor told Mada Masr.

Meanwhile, Kenyan tea shipments that had already reached Port Sudan face legal complications, as the ban was enacted before the containers were cleared for entry, a Sudanese customs official told Mada Masr.

Seeking alternative suppliers, Sudan turned to its trade partners, a Trade Ministry source said. On Sunday, Ahmed met with Zimbabwe’s ambassador to Sudan Emmanuel Gumbo in Port Sudan. Gumbo expressed Zimbabwe’s interest in expanding economic and trade cooperation, pointing to its annual production of 11,000 tons of tea and dominance in Africa’s tobacco market.

A Sudanese Trade Ministry source suggested that several Zimbabwean companies may explore avenues for boosting trade with Sudan in the coming period.

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Escalating crisis in South Sudan as UN warns of renewed civil war

The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) suspended its participation in the transitional structures established under the 2018 revitalized peace agreement with President Salva Kiir, SPLM-IO deputy chair and first deputy speaker of South Sudan’s Transitional National Legislative Assembly Oyet Nathaniel Pierino told Mada Masr. 

For the third consecutive week, escalating tensions in South Sudan are fueling concerns that the world’s youngest nation could slide back into civil war as the crisis between Kiir and his first vice president and longtime rival Riek Machar deepens.

Machar leads the SPLM-IO, with which Kiir inked the peace agreement in 2018 that brought an end to a brutal five-year civil war.

Pierino attributed the suspension to government policies, citing the arrests of several SPLM-IO leaders, the deployment of Ugandan forces in the capital, Juba, and what he called racial discrimination against the Nuer community — Machar’s ethnic group and a historical rival to Kiir’s Dinka-led leadership. 

The group has effectively withdrawn from the agreement and frozen its participation in the government following extensive consultations, Pierino said, adding that as part of this suspension, all SPLM-IO members in security and political institutions will cease their involvement immediately. 

The group will not return to the agreement unless all political detainees from SPLM-IO are unconditionally released, Pierino added. 

Earlier this month, the South Sudanese military arrested several ministers and high-ranking military officers loyal to Machar in the wake of clashes in the town of Nasir in Upper Nile State that have persisted since mid-February between the military and the Machar-aligned White Army fighters. 

A former security official in the South Sudanese military told Mada Masr that the government's failure to protect all citizens and their properties has led to the formation of local ethnic militias. He warned that targeting the White Army — a Nuer militia — and mobilizing state institutions against it only reinforces the state’s policy of targeting its own people.

Meanwhile, military operations are ongoing in Nasir — the epicenter of the recent crisis. Government forces have withdrawn and the White Army has begun asserting control, raising major security concerns.

The UN continues to issue warnings about the deteriorating situation. UN Special Representative and Head of Mission in South Sudan Nicholas Haysom told the AU’s Peace and Security Council on Tuesday that “South Sudan is poised on the brink of relapse into civil war, which threatens to erase the hard-won peace gains since the signing of the Revitalized Agreement in 2018.”

A Sudanese intelligence source told Mada Masr that, for now, the situation in South Sudan remains manageable. However, the source warned that developments in Juba have been further complicated by Emirati interference, which they said is aimed at steering the country so that it aligns with Abu Dhabi’s regional agenda.

The source also warned that the withdrawal of RSF fighters into South Sudan following their defeat and expulsion from the Sennar and White Nile states poses a broader security threat — not only to Juba but also to Kenya and Ethiopia — that could potentially trigger widespread instability across already fragile borders.

The retreating fighters took over several military sites belonging to the Renk Brigade, which is affiliated with the South Sudanese national military, the source added. 

A security source in Sudan’s Blue Nile region told Mada Masr that an agreement exists between certain senior officers in South Sudan’s national military and RSF field commanders to eliminate the White Army. The deal grants RSF a strategic security presence in South Sudan while destabilizing oil extraction and exports to Port Sudan, the source said, as oil wells in Upper Nile State are located on Nuer territory.

In January, Sudan’s Energy and Petroleum Ministry lifted the force majeure it had declared in March 2024 on South Sudanese oil transport, ending a ten-month halt in operations due to the military conflict. 

Around the same time last year, South Sudan secured a 12 billion euro loan from the Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects, an obscure Emirati firm, in exchange for repayments in oil, Bloomberg reported, citing an unpublished report by the UN Security Council-appointed panel of investigators. The funds amount to almost double South Sudan’s Gross Domestic Product and five times its current external debt, the report said.

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Agar continues African tour, threatens exit from the African Union

Following visits to Djibouti and Uganda earlier in March, Transitional Sovereignty Council Deputy Chair Malik Agar held discussions with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Pretoria on Tuesday — his third visit to South Africa since taking office in May 2023 — before heading to Kigali on Wednesday to meet Rwandan President Paul Kagame. 

In a statement on Tuesday, Agar said he briefed Ramaphosa on the latest developments in Sudan, emphasizing the extensive destruction of public services by the RSF. 

Agar sought to convince Ramaphosa to support lifting Sudan’s suspension from the union, a senior diplomatic source told Mada Masr. He warned that Sudan might consider withdrawing from the AU altogether if policies enabling Sudan’s fragmentation and allowing member states to funnel military supplies to the RSF persist, the source said. 

Agar also outlined the Sudanese state’s vision for military operations and the transition from war to state building, another diplomatic source said.

When Ramaphosa asked about the prospects for negotiations, Agar said that engagement with the RSF remains difficult due to its fractured leadership and multiple decision-making centers, as well as significant regional and international interference, according to the statement. He accused the RSF of serving foreign agendas with shared interests and warned that foreign mercenaries within its ranks have formed power centers independent of its main leadership, a diplomatic source told Mada Masr. 

Agar also conveyed Sudan’s regret over the South African president’s meeting with RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo in Pretoria last year, pointing out that Hemedti personally oversaw massacres in West Darfur, the source said. He accused the RSF of consistently pursuing a racist strategy against African communities and warned of its repercussions on the region’s social fabric.

Additionally, Agar sharply condemned Kenya for aiding the RSF’s attempt to form a parallel government, deeming it a blatant violation of international law and the AU charter and a hostile move against Sudan, according to the statement. 

For his part, Ramaphosa reaffirmed South Africa’s commitment to ending the war in Sudan, stressing his country’s dedication to supporting efforts to restore Sudan’s stability and regional role.

Agar’s diplomatic tour continued on Wednesday with a visit to Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, where he met with President Kagame. Expressing gratitude for Rwanda’s role in addressing Sudan’s crisis on regional platforms, Agar emphasized the need for a unified African approach to armed conflicts, particularly in Sudan, a source accompanying him told Mada Masr. 

Kagame, in turn, underscored the need for preserving Sudan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, particularly in light of what he described as the detrimental roles played by certain institutions and foreign actors, the source said. Kagame also emphasized the importance of assisting Sudan, particularly in reconstruction efforts and refugee-related needs.

During their meeting, Kagame briefed Agar on the ongoing tensions between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, stressing the urgency of halting any arms transfers that could further destabilize the region.

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Military launches night attack on RSF in central Khartoum, nears presidential palace gates

Since Monday, the military has imposed a siege on RSF troops inside the presidential palace and the Arab Market area in central Khartoum after Armored Corps units merged with other military forces at the General Command headquarters, cutting off the RSF’s last supply line into the city center, a field source told Mada Masr.

Battles between the two sides broke out late Wednesday night and continued into Thursday morning, just a few hundred meters from the southern gate of the presidential palace.

The offensive toward the palace began at dawn on Sunday, when Armored Corps units from southern Khartoum advanced into the Khartoum 3 and Khartoum 2 neighborhoods, the field source said. They secured key sites, including the Family Club, the Sherwani Bus Station, the Nilein Towers and the Musallamiya Bridge — the last RSF supply route to the center.

By Monday, the Sudanese military announced that advance troops of the Armored Corps special operations and elite forces reached the General Command headquarters in central Khartoum. The following day, the Armored Corps forces captured Shaab and dental teaching hospitals before linking up with forces at the General Command, the source said. 

The Armored Corps forces’ gains and their arrival at the command headquarters effectively besieged RSF troops in central Khartoum.

Later on Tuesday, RSF units launched a surprise counterattack against military defenses in the Saggana and Khartoum 2 neighborhoods in an attempt to break the siege, but the assault failed, according to the source. After a five-hour battle, several RSF fighters were killed.

By Wednesday, military forces had advanced further into central Khartoum, reaching the Zaytouna Hospital on Sayyid Abdel Rahman Street. Other units reached the Minerals Ministry, near the eastern gate of the presidential palace, according to the field source.

Around 50 RSF fighters surrendered after being cornered inside buildings along Khartoum Hospital Street and in the Khartoum East neighborhood.

That night, the military launched an unprecedented assault on the presidential palace, destroying more than 24 RSF combat vehicles, another field source said. The attack was supported by heavy drone strikes near the Stack Laboratory on Qasr Street.

As RSF fighters and vehicles attempted to withdraw from central Khartoum via Qasr Street and the Sherwani Bus Station to the south, the military intercepted them and launched a counteroffensive, advancing even closer to the palace gates, the source said. 

The source speculated that the military could establish full control over central Khartoum within days.

Meanwhile, RSF fighters tried to flee from the Strategic Battalion headquarters in western Khartoum on Wednesday night, attempting to cross the White Nile toward Jebel Awliya, the source said. However, the military intercepted them and blocked their escape.

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Military advances from Geteina toward Jebel Awliya, secures border with South Sudan

The military deployed additional troops in Geteina City in the White Nile State and villages south of the Jebel Awliya Dam this week in preparation for a decisive battle to capture the dam bridge linking Khartoum and Omdurman, a military source told Mada Masr. Reinforcements included the military-allied Sudan Shield Forces, elite military and intelligence units, and troops from the Managil and 18th Infantry Division in White Nile State.

Meanwhile, in southeastern Sudan, a military source told Mada Masr, three military divisions operating in the Blue Nile, Sennar and White Nile states converged in the Turus area, near the Gabalein-Mazmum-Bout triangle. Securing the Turus area, the source explained, effectively guarantees military control over Sudan’s southeastern border with South Sudan.

The head of the military’s air defense sector in Blue Nile, Major General Ali Hassan Bilou, announced that Sennar State was now free of RSF troops. Bilou urged Sennar residents to return to their homes, declaring the state safe and stable.