Sudan Nashra: Burhan visits Cairo, Hemedti in Tripoli | Bashir-era strongman returns to the forefront | War of attrition in Khartoum

The Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to extend the history of Sudan’s armed conflicts in its latest and most destructive iteration, as the war that began last April wreaks havoc on four Sudanese regions, including the capital, Khartoum, for the eleventh consecutive month. The ongoing violence has resulted in more casualties, violations, a crumbling economy and widening social rifts.
As the tide of war begins to turn in favor of the Sudanese military in the cities of the Sudanese capital, concerns are mounting that the potential collapse of the RSF in Khartoum could lead to a new wave of violence in the Darfur region, as the paramilitary looks to consolidate its strongholds.
Against this backdrop, prominent tribal leader and former official in the ousted regime Musa Hilal emerged for the first time since the outbreak of the war. In an over-30-minute-long video uploaded online, Musa can be seen speaking into a megaphone before hundreds of his soldiers and combat vehicles in his stronghold in an affluent area in the North Darfur State.
Hilal had once been part of the initial core leadership of the RSF that fought armed movements rebelling against the central government during the Darfur war in 2003 under the name of Border Guards Forces. His relations later soured with the government of the ousted president Omar al-Bashir and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” and he ended up in prison. 
In 2017, embroiled in a conflict with the central government and the then-governor of North Darfur, Hilal had his stronghold raided by the RSF and he was arrested in humiliating fashion — a humiliation that was caught on camera. This is believed to have caused a major rift between him and Hemedti.
Standing before his forces who have returned from Libya in the past week, Hilal addressed the ongoing war, stressing that every criminal will be held accountable and that Sudan will not collapse, and mentioned his arrest.
Amid these complexities, the Sudanese military has mobilized forces to launch a full assault on RSF positions in the Gezira State, which the paramilitary group has largely taken control of, including its capital, Wad Madani, captured in December. 
The military’s offensive in Gezira, the Sudanese state responsible for most of the country’s economic production, began with its forces entering from the south of the state. The armed forces have recaptured five areas so far as they advance toward the state’s capital. 
Meanwhile, in the tri-city capital, the military, riding on the back of its major breakthrough last week, has maintained its position around the radio and television building in Omdurman, preparing to launch an attack as the RSF remains entrenched inside the historic and strategic buildings. 
On the political front, three paths are beginning to emerge. First, Transitional Sovereignty Council Deputy Chairperson Malik Agar has embarked on a regional diplomatic tour to contain any external political influence by the RSF. 
Secondly, the Democratic Bloc, which has gained backing from Juba, is attempting to shape a new political landscape. 
Meanwhile, Cairo is trying to carve a parallel path by hosting a number of workshops on Sudan, whether regarding political or humanitarian issues, and presenting its vision aligned with the neighboring countries' initiative.
These developments follow a shift in the dynamics of the war in Sudan as the armed forces have regained both military and political momentum. The military’s advance in Old Omdurman has dispelled doubts about their ability to recapture areas under the RSF’s control. 
The military’s breakthrough in Omdurman has influenced the government’s political stance, prompting wide movements in some African countries and neighboring states to contain any political maneuver that may bolster the RSF’s position. However, there remains some misgivings, including in Cairo, about the military leadership in the wake of their significant setbacks only a few months ago. 
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Burhan and Agar embark on new diplomatic tour
Led by Sudanese Armed Forces and Transitional Sovereignty Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Agar, the military is leveraging its advancements to bolster its diplomatic maneuvers. 
On Wednesday, Agar commenced a week-long diplomatic tour of Uganda and Rwanda, during which he announced a new plan to end the war in Sudan. 
A source in the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that Agar's efforts are aligned with state institutions' resolve to end the war at various levels. 
The diplomatic source added that Sudan acknowledges the role that neighboring countries can play in cutting off the RSF from external support, noting that these states recognize sovereign institutions despite the paramilitary’s attempts to garner international backing.
During his meeting with European diplomats in Kampala, Agar reiterated the government’s determination to not just halt the conflict but conclusively end Sudan’s long history of war through a roadmap paving the way for a new era in the country.
A source in the Sovereignty Council told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that Agar highlighted the danger of granting any legitimacy to the RSF that would enable them to negotiate and evade accountability for their crimes. 
In the Rwandan capital, Kigali, Agar handed Rwandan President Paul Kagame the Sudanese government's roadmap to end the war. 
According to another source in the Sovereignty Council, speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, Agar's visit to Rwanda comes as the government seeks to highlight its efforts to counter any attempt to delegitimize the Sudanese state and thwart any efforts by the RSF to obtain external backing.
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Burhan in Cairo and Hemedti in Tripoli captionThe Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to extend the history of Sudan’s armed conflicts in its latest and most destructive iteration, as the war that began last April wreaks havoc on four Sudanese regions, including the capital, Khartoum, for the eleventh consecutive month. The ongoing violence has resulted in more casualties, violations, a crumbling economy and widening social rifts.

As the tide of war begins to turn in favor of the Sudanese military in the cities of the Sudanese capital, concerns are mounting that the potential collapse of the RSF in Khartoum could lead to a new wave of violence in the Darfur region, as the paramilitary looks to consolidate its strongholds.

Against this backdrop, prominent tribal leader and former official in the ousted regime Musa Hilal emerged for the first time since the outbreak of the war. In an over-30-minute-long video uploaded online, Musa can be seen speaking into a megaphone before hundreds of his soldiers and combat vehicles in his stronghold in an affluent area in the North Darfur State.

Hilal had once been part of the initial core leadership of the RSF that fought armed movements rebelling against the central government during the Darfur war in 2003 under the name of Border Guards Forces. His relations later soured with the government of the ousted president Omar al-Bashir and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and he ended up in prison. 

In 2017, embroiled in a conflict with the central government and the then-governor of North Darfur, Hilal had his stronghold raided by the RSF and he was arrested in humiliating fashion — a humiliation that was caught on camera. This is believed to have caused a major rift between him and Hemedti.

Standing before his forces who have returned from Libya in the past week, Hilal addressed the ongoing war, stressing that every criminal will be held accountable and that Sudan will not collapse, and mentioned his arrest.

Amid these complexities, the Sudanese military has mobilized forces to launch a full assault on RSF positions in the Gezira State, which the paramilitary group has largely taken control of, including its capital, Wad Madani, captured in December. 

The military’s offensive in Gezira, the Sudanese state responsible for most of the country’s economic production, began with its forces entering from the south of the state. The armed forces have recaptured five areas so far as they advance toward the state’s capital. 

Meanwhile, in the tri-city capital, the military, riding on the back of its major breakthrough last week, has maintained its position around the radio and television building in Omdurman, preparing to launch an attack as the RSF remains entrenched inside the historic and strategic buildings. 

On the political front, three paths are beginning to emerge. First, Transitional Sovereignty Council Deputy Chairperson Malik Agar has embarked on a regional diplomatic tour to contain any external political influence by the RSF. 

Secondly, the Democratic Bloc, which has gained backing from Juba, is attempting to shape a new political landscape. 

Meanwhile, Cairo is trying to carve a parallel path by hosting a number of workshops on Sudan, whether regarding political or humanitarian issues, and presenting its vision aligned with the neighboring countries' initiative.

These developments follow a shift in the dynamics of the war in Sudan as the armed forces have regained both military and political momentum. The military’s advance in Old Omdurman has dispelled doubts about their ability to recapture areas under the RSF’s control. 

The military’s breakthrough in Omdurman has influenced the government’s political stance, prompting wide movements in some African countries and neighboring states to contain any political maneuver that may bolster the RSF’s position. However, there remains some misgivings, including in Cairo, about the military leadership in the wake of their significant setbacks only a few months ago. 

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Burhan and Agar embark on new diplomatic tour

Led by Sudanese Armed Forces and Transitional Sovereignty Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Agar, the military is leveraging its advancements to bolster its diplomatic maneuvers. 

On Wednesday, Agar commenced a week-long diplomatic tour of Uganda and Rwanda, during which he announced a new plan to end the war in Sudan. 

A source in the Sudanese Foreign Ministry told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that Agar's efforts are aligned with state institutions' resolve to end the war at various levels. 

The diplomatic source added that Sudan acknowledges the role that neighboring countries can play in cutting off the RSF from external support, noting that these states recognize sovereign institutions despite the paramilitary’s attempts to garner international backing.

During his meeting with European diplomats in Kampala, Agar reiterated the government’s determination to not just halt the conflict but conclusively end Sudan’s long history of war through a roadmap paving the way for a new era in the country.

A source in the Sovereignty Council told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that Agar highlighted the danger of granting any legitimacy to the RSF that would enable them to negotiate and evade accountability for their crimes. 

In the Rwandan capital, Kigali, Agar handed Rwandan President Paul Kagame the Sudanese government's roadmap to end the war. 

According to another source in the Sovereignty Council, speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, Agar's visit to Rwanda comes as the government seeks to highlight its efforts to counter any attempt to delegitimize the Sudanese state and thwart any efforts by the RSF to obtain external backing.

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Burhan in Cairo and Hemedti in Tripoli 

Away from the Horn of Africa, Burhan and Hemedti also set their sights on other neighboring countries this week. 

Burhan arrived in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, on Thursday morning, while his opponent Hemedti preceded him to the Libyan capital, Tripoli, earlier the same day. 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed Burhan at Cairo International Airport, hosting an official reception at the presidential palace, complete with honor guards and national anthems. The two leaders then commenced bilateral discussions aimed at strengthening relations and addressing mutual concerns, according to a statement by the Sovereignty Council.

Egyptian presidential spokesperson Ahmed Fahmy stated that the meeting between Sisi and Burhan reviewed developments in Sudan and efforts to resolve the ongoing crisis to ensure that stability is restored, preserving the sovereignty, unity and cohesion of the Sudanese state and its institutions, and meeting the aspirations of the Sudanese people for security and stability.

Sisi emphasized Egypt's commitment to Sudan's security and reiterated his full support to achieve political, security and economic stability in Sudan, promoting Sudanese unity, and resolving the ongoing conflict that impacts the national security of both countries.

Fahmy further added that Sisi and Burhan agreed to continue intensive consultations and coordination in this context in the interest of both nations.

Accompanying Burhan on his visit was Foreign Minister Ali al-Sadig and the Director of Sudan’s General Intelligence Service Ahmed Ibrahim Mufaddal.

Burhan's visit to Cairo comes two days after his visit to Tripoli where he met with the Government of National Unity’s Presidential Council member Mohamed al-Menfi and Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbaiba.

In Tripoli on Friday, GNU spokesperson Mohamed Hamouda announced Hemedti’s arrival and his meeting with Dbaiba in response to the latter's invitation in a phone call on Saturday.

Burhan and Hemedti's visits to Tripoli followed Dbaiba's call for peace in Sudan and plea for conflicting parties to engage in dialogue to halt the ongoing war.

During his discussions with Menfi and Dbaiba, Burhan addressed key issues in the war and its fallout, including the situation of Sudanese refugees in Libya and the need to allow United Nations agencies access to provide assistance to them. This follows complaints by the UN secretary general's Special Representative in Libya Abdoulaye Bathily to the Security Council on February 15 regarding preventing aid to Sudanese refugees in southeastern Libya.

Burhan also raised concerns with his Libyan counterparts in Tripoli about the RSF’s "transgressions" in their "war against innocent citizens," according to a statement released by the Sovereignty Council on Monday.

During a call with Hemedti on Saturday, Dbaiba emphasized the urgency of reconciling the views of Sudanese parties to bring about peace and stability in Sudan. 

Once he arrived in Tripoli, Hemedti discussed with Dbaiba the developments in Sudan and the efforts to end the war and establish peace in the country. He presented Dbaiba with his vision for resolving the crisis at its roots and rebuilding Sudan on a fair and new foundation, as noted on his X account on Saturday.

A source close to Menfi told Mada Masr that, during his discussion in Tripoli, Burhan addressed the situation of the displaced persons, halting the supply of fighters and weapons to Hemedti, and intervening with Chad to cease their support. Burhan also requested assistance in changing the United Arab Emirates’ position due to Dbaiba's relationship with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

Dbaiba has voiced his stance on Sudan’s war in support of the Sudanese military and openly criticized Libyan National Army leader Khalifa Haftar's backing for Hemedti on several occasions. However, Dbaiba is in a complicated position, between his rivalry with Haftar, who is also supported by the UAE, and his own increasing closeness with Abu Dhabi. 

In Cairo, Burhan was also met with a complicated reception. 

An Egyptian government source told Mada Masr that Burhan’s visit to Cairo is part of a joint endeavor between Cairo and Khartoum to redefine the role of the leader of the Sudanese military top brass. Burhan’s regional and international influence is diminishing, and his prospects in the ongoing war are dwindling, in contrast to his rival and former ally, Hemedti, who has gained political significance throughout Africa through collaboration between the UAE and its African partner, Ethiopia, the source said.

Cairo, while reluctantly acknowledging Hemedti’s expanding role, favors engaging with Burhan, the source added. This is due to his status as a regular military figure — despite his Islamist background that does not align with the Egyptian regime's political preferences —  compared to Hemedti, whom the Egyptian side views as a leader of the militia group accused of widespread violations of international law, including genocide in Darfur.

The source added that Cairo has sought to support Burhan by all means and has achieved relatively significant progress in this regard by garnering backing from several key countries, including France and the United States, who remain unwilling to elevate Hemedti's role and oppose his presidency in Sudan under any circumstances.

However, the source states that Burhan has "lost a lot on the ground in Sudan," weakening his position, especially in light of the ongoing dialogue between Hemedti and former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. 

Hamdok resigned from the Transitional Sovereignty Council when Burhan — with the support of Hemedti, his then-deputy — dissolved the transitional government and backtracked on the mandated transfer of power from the military to civilian rule nearly two years ago.

The source stressed that Hamdok and Hemedti are important figures in the current and future Sudanese political path, and Egypt does not want Burhan to deviate from this path, especially considering the significant decline in support he has faced within the Sudanese military establishment, compared to other figures known to Cairo as more rigidly Islamist in their affiliations.

The source added that Egypt does not seek direct confrontation with the UAE regarding the ongoing settlement in Sudan, but, despite Emirati support, Cairo cannot overlook its interests in Sudan.

The source confirmed that the war on Gaza, which regional and international diplomacy has so far failed to stop, and fears of an Israeli war on Lebanon in the early spring, do not divert Egypt’s attention from the evolving situation in Sudan, which has effectively resulted in a division of the spheres of influence on the ground between Burhan and Hemedti, considering the latter's greater control and regional support.

In the weeks before Friday’s visit, as Hamdok’s Civil Front for Democracy began its push to lead negotiations toward an end to the war, a senior Egyptian official told Mada Masr that Cairo has initiated arrangements to engage Hamdok after previously opposing his advancement in the political scene.

The change in Cairo's stance towards Hamdok followed a series of recent setbacks faced by its ally, Burhan.

Burhan had approached Cairo due to his concerns that the rapprochement between Hemedti and the leaders of the Freedom and Change Coalition could bolster the RSF leader’s political position and negotiation power following the paramilitary’s advances and their acceptance of international mediation to halt the war, the official said. Egypt is working to host Hamdok and his associates, enabling them to conduct a series of intra-Sudanese talks and meetings in Cairo, the official added. This initiative aims to ensure that the former prime minister does not drift away from Cairo amid his contacts with the UAE and Western powers, who support his return to the forefront of the political scene.

The source added that Cairo is currently working through civil actors to attract Hamdok back to Egypt, recognizing his prior openness to Egypt during his tenure as prime minister. 

The source added that Cairo does not intend to declare its support for any political party in Sudan despite its inclination to support the military in its battle against the RSF.

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War of attrition in Khartoum

Back on the ground, in the capital, a military source at the Wadi Sidna military base in Omdurman told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity that the military’s victories in the city had an impact on three key dimensions. 

First, there is a notable surge in troop morale after the Karrari military area in the north was connected with the Omdurman military area in the south. Secondly, the source highlighted the swift military preparedness achieved within a short timeframe, culminating in the deployment of significant military and logistical reinforcements that enabled the armed forces to carry out strategic operations. These reinforcements showcased the armed forces’ actual capabilities to effect significant changes in the military equation through logistical arrangements, according to the source.

The third dimension, according to the military source, pertains to the dwindling capabilities of the RSF. The triumph in Omdurman represents a significant setback for them, resulting in a substantial decline in their defenses. The source affirmed that there have been no attempted attacks on military camps, while significant withdrawals have been observed in Omdurman.

Regarding military operations surrounding the national radio and television authority, the last bastion of the RSF in the heart of Omdurman, a military source told Mada Masr that the armed forces have completely encircled the area. The RSF is resorting to desperate measures, including using prisoners as human shields, in a bid to protect their ammunition and military equipment.

The military source speculated that the operation would continue in the coming days, without disclosing details about the operation.

Another military source at the Maaqil military base in the Nile State, north of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, indicated that the armed forces are gearing up for a large-scale ground operation in the north of Bahri city, in collaboration with forces from armed movements in Darfur. 

Additionally, another field military source in the Nile State noted ongoing military movements aimed at bolstering advanced defenses within the state.

Burhan visited several military sites in various regions of the state, including a camp affiliated with the Justice and Equality Movement led by Gibril Ibrahim. Forces aligned with Darfur governor and rebel leader Minni Arko Minnawi, as well as those under Sudan Liberation Movement leader Mostafa Tambour, have received military training in Gadarif State in eastern Sudan to advance toward Gezira State.

These maneuvers are tied to the ongoing attrition battles being waged by the military against the RSF in north Bahri along three fronts. In the Kadro area, the military destroyed a number of artillery and rocket launchers, a military source told Mada Masr. 

In the Droshab area to the north, near the Weapons Corps, special operations forces are engaged in intermittent battles with RSF troops fleeing from the Halfaya and Kadro regions.

In the Hattab and Samra regions, the military is targeting vehicles transporting RSF ammunition and military equipment. A field military source told Mada Masr that the armed forces are engaged in fierce battles, utilizing all forces, including artillery, drones and special operations forces, to sever military supply lines to and from the Gaili Oil Refinery in northern Khartoum, where the RSF are positioned.

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Continued battles in Babanusa

In the ongoing war in Babanusa, West Kordofan State, in the southwest of Sudan, the military stationed around the city repelled a major attack by the RSF. A military source told Mada Masr that the RSF suffered losses in both equipment and personnel. 

The military had reinforced its defenses in the city, receiving logistical reinforcements to bolster their defensive capabilities.

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Musa Hilal resurfaces

Amid escalating social tensions in Sudan, prominent tribal leader and former official Musa Hilal, emerged back into the spotlight, giving a recorded speech from his stronghold in an affluent area in North Darfur State, surrounded by hundreds of his troops. 

Hilal, the leader of the Sudanese Awakening Revolutionary Council, an armed political rebel group, faces Western economic sanctions for his involvement in the previous Darfur war. 

Sources close to Hilal told Mada Masr that he had been present in the White Nile State since the outbreak of military battles in Khartoum. 

Hilal, who has political enmity with Hemedti stemming from his 2017 arrest, has failed to mediate between the RSF and military to bring an end to the war, despite his efforts, according to the source close to Hilal.

Hilal was welcomed earlier this week in his stronghold in North Darfur State by hundreds of his forces aboard four-wheel drive vehicles loaded with military equipment coming from neighboring Libya.

An informed source told Mada Masr that these forces came to protect the nation from threats of geographic and social division that could be caused by the ongoing war, while safeguarding the Sudanese state and its military and civilian institutions.

In his address to his forces arriving from Libya, Hilal did not disclose his allegiance in this war, a fight that he called absurd. He emphasized that the war has brought external enemies into Sudan, turning the country into a sanctuary for some fugitives and thieves from neighboring nations.

Hilal affirmed that every criminal engaged in looting and rape will be held accountable before the Sudanese people and will not escape justice regardless of the circumstances, stressing that anyone attempting to sabotage Sudan will not succeed. 

The source noted that Hilal's speech was clear regarding criminals violating public and private rights, emphasizing the necessity of holding them accountable under the law and vowing to prevent the state’s collapse by what he described as mercenaries crossing borders.

Hilal’s falling out with the Bashir regime tracks onto Hemedti’s rise. In mid 2017, the government announced that it would integrate the border guard, composed mostly of Hilal’s forces, into the RSF and called on armed civilians to turn in their weapons. 

Hilal refused, and, in late November, the RSF raided his house and arrested him in humiliating fashion. 

In this context, political analyst Mohamed al-Mahi told Mada Masr that Hilal's criticism of the Bashir regime’s corruption in the years following his arrest, even going so far as to oppose Bashir’s planned 2020 presidential bid, made the former president double down on his support for Hemedti. 

Mahi indicates that their recent return is aimed at positioning themselves in their former locations and protecting them, especially given expectations of a security breakdown in the Darfur region. He suggested that Hilal may play a significant role in stabilizing the situation due to his proximity to all political and tribal groups in the region.

Mahi ruled out Hilal's forces entering the ongoing conflict, as he is in communication with RSF leaders who requested his mediation between them and the military to end the conflict. 

The source shares this assessment, saying, "Hilal's forces will not engage in combat unless they are attacked by the RSF." 

The leader of the Mahamid tribe, Hilal has a bloody history with the RSF, who had raided his stronghold in 2017 while he was receiving condolences for his mother's death, killing his son and several relatives, followed by his arrest, deportation to Khartoum and imprisonment for about four years. According to former military sources in military intelligence who spoke to Mada Masr, Hemedti ensured Hilal remained in prison during this period.

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Sudan’s economy on the brink of collapse

With the transformation of the Sudanese economy into a war economy and the disruption of most exports, coupled with a significant halt in revenues and longstanding structural problems spanning decades, the country's economy faces imminent collapse.

Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim stressed the critical situation facing the Sudanese economy due to the ongoing conflict, attributing an 80 percent plunge in state revenues to the economic centralization in the capital Khartoum.

Speaking at a press conference held on February 26 in Port Sudan, the de facto administrative capital, Ibrahim stated that the Sudanese economy has shrunk by approximately 40 percent over the past four years, expecting this contraction to persist this year due to low exports, project interruptions, low revenues and rising exchange rate.

Ibrahim emphasized that the current budget is a war budget — volatile and subject to review every three months. He noted that the state's priorities are to support military operations, provide relief and healthcare, and pay salaries for government employees.

Ibrahim also said that the RSF had stolen 2,700 kilograms of gold from the Khartoum gold refinery. 

Energy and Petroleum Minister Mohi Eddin Naeem told local media that the RSF’s rebellion has deprived the country of 7 million barrels of crude oil production, with current local oil production standing at less than 20,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, economists believe that inflation has surged to a staggering 300 percent, compared to 80 percent before the outbreak of the conflict. They project that inflation rates will reach 450 percent by the end of the current year, exacerbating the economic strain on the country.

Economic analyst Haitham Fathy told Mada Masr that recent budgetary measures taken by the finance minister aim to increase state revenues affected by the conflict in Khartoum and parts of Kordofan and other regions.

Fathy predicted a further deterioration in the economic landscape in the coming period, especially with the ongoing war and capital flight. Fathy added that the country's conditions will remain challenging unless the Sudanese government receives funding from supporting countries, increases exports and reduces imports.

He highlighted that streamlining export processes and providing incentives for exporters is the best way to boost revenues. 

Fathy believes that the Sudanese economy can overcome the crisis by taking a few economic measures and implementing coherent economic policies, including monetary tightening, and adopting fiscal and customs policies that align with increasing exports and reducing imports. He also emphasized the potential for utilizing land in stable states for agricultural or commercial activities to enhance productivity.