Israel approves ceasefire deal, starting countdown to prisoner exchange

Israel’s Cabinet approved a Gaza ceasefire agreement this morning, starting the clock on a series of terms leading toward a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas next week. 

The agreement went into action immediately upon Israel’s agreement, with its military forces beginning a partial withdrawal from some positions within the strip on Friday.

Israeli bombing struck Khan Younis at dawn, regardless, and hit eastern Gaza City later in the morning, Palestinian media reported.

Footage showing Israeli shelling intended to prevent displaced Palestinians from returning to northern Gaza. October 9.  Photo courtesy of Palestinian News and Information Agency (Wafa).

As per the terms of the deal, a copy of which was leaked to the Israeli press on Wednesday night, Israel has 24 hours to execute the first phase of its withdrawal. The prisoner exchange is set to take place within the 72-hour period following the withdrawal.

Hamas has until Monday evening to release all the Israeli prisoners — only 20 of whom are believed to still be alive — held in Gaza.

During the same timeframe, Hamas should gather information on the whereabouts of the remains of the deceased prisoners not in its custody, and inform mediators of its findings. Israel is to provide information on the Palestinian prisoners and detainees it holds from the Gaza Strip.

“In phase one,” an Egyptian official with knowledge of the ceasefire talks in Sharm el-Sheikh told Mada Masr earlier in the week, “part two is for Israel to withdraw out of 35 percent of the 85 percent of Gaza it currently occupies.” 

This would allow Hamas to gather the remains of the Israeli prisoners who died in captivity, the official said. “Hamas has said it so many times: if there is no withdrawal, they cannot be working on the ground.,” they remarked.

A Hamas source told Mada Masr Thursday that it is committed to releasing all living Israeli prisoners. However, handing over the remains “is contingent on suitable field conditions,” they said. 

A task force comprising representatives from the United States, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and other countries is to be formed to follow up on the agreement’s execution, the document reads. Agence France-Presse has reported that 200 American troops are to head to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire, alongside partner nations, nongovernmental organizations and the private sector.

A Fatah source confirmed the formation of the task force to Mada Masr on Friday, and said it would play a role in locating the bodies of the deceased hostages.

Hamas has reportedly said that 20 live prisoners remain in the custody of the other Palestinian factions in the strip. Based on the number of Israelis abducted on October 7, 2023 and those released in earlier prisoner swaps, at least 30 have died in captivity.

A Hamas source told Mada Masr it received guarantees from the US that the war wouldn’t resume after the completion of the prisoner exchange, the first phase of the ceasefire deal which has now been adopted by both parties.

Humanitarian aid is also due to enter the strip in quantities matching those agreed upon in the short-lived January ceasefire, according to the terms of the new deal. 

Thousands of Palestinians began to return to northern Gaza on Friday, as the military operation which has seen hundreds of thousands expelled from the city since mid-August officially came to an end. 

Who will be released? 

Israeli officials said on Friday night that prominent Palestinian leaders such as Marwan al-Barghouti, Ahmed Saadat, Hassan Salama and Abbas al-Sayed would not be among the releasees in this exchange, nor would the Hamas fighters who participated in the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

The list of Palestinian prisoners presented by Hamas included Barghouti, Saadat and Salama, according to the Hamas source. Israel was initially uncooperative, but gave preliminary approval on the names. “That is the reason behind the Occupation’s delay in giving final government approval on the ceasefire agreement,” the source said.

Israel’s agreement to the deal came over 24 hours after the Palestinian factions had signed off on the deal in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Behind-the-scenes discussions indicated that “the Occupation does not want to release another Yahya al-Sinwar from its prisons,” a Fatah leader told Mada Masr, pointing to Barghouti’s and Salama’s popularity. The idea of exiling them, the source said, “was categorically rejected by Israel.” 

As for Ahmed Saadat, the source said he is viewed as “elderly, ill and no longer having any real political influence.”

What’s next? 

Responding to an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address the Knesset, US President Donald Trump told Axios he is “likely going to Israel in the coming days.” According to a White House statement on Wednesday, Trump may travel to the Middle East after a physical check-up on Friday.

During a phone call with the families of the Israeli hostages, Trump pledged they would all “come back on Monday,” according to Fox News.

What happens after the prisoner exchange is less clear, however. Phase two would see the parties discuss later points in the 20-point proposal the White House put out in late September, including the proposed international stabilization force, expanded Israeli withdrawal, and the question of Gaza’s governance model.

Reuters reported that the United Kingdom and France have already begun talks at the United Nations to secure a mandate for an international force. 

Egypt hosted informal meetings in Cairo last week between Palestinian factions, including Fatah, according to a Hamas source, a Palestinian Authority official and a second Egyptian official who previously spoke to Mada Masr. The talks were intended to lay the groundwork for a potential second phase of negotiations.

“There are discussions with the PA regarding [Palestinian governance of Gaza] in order to agree on a plan that will be ready as soon as this issue is raised in ceasefire negotiations,” the Hamas source told Mada Masr at the time.

Egypt and the factions’ push for Palestinian governance, however, mounts an alternative path forward to the one laid out by Trump, which was centered on a three-part governance model that an Arab League source described to Mada Masr as placing Gaza “under foreign guardianship.”

There are also fears that Israel could resume the war after the prisoner exchange is completed. 

But Hamas said on Thursday that it had reached “an agreement that stipulates an end to the war on Gaza, the withdrawal of Occupation forces, the entry of humanitarian aid and the exchange of prisoners.” The group called on Trump and the guarantor states to “compel the Occupation government to fully implement the agreement’s requirements."

Hamas leader Osama Hamdan told Al-Araby TV on Thursday that mediators provided a guarantee that an official announcement would be made declaring the war ended. Hamdan, however, did not clarify the nature of the guarantee or whether it was written or verbal. He said he expected the second phase of negotiations to be easier.

Hamdan stressed that the agreement leads to a declaration of the end of the war on Gaza, not merely a ceasefire, adding that the resistance would not proceed with a prisoner exchange with the Occupation unless an agreement that stipulates an end to the war is announced. 

Hamas proposed 40 names to take charge of governing Gaza following a permanent ceasefire, Hamdan said, stressing that “Gaza’s administration is a national affair, and we will not allow any external interference.”

Israeli ministers, however, including far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who voted against the ceasefire deal, warned that his party would “bring down the government” if Hamas’ rule is not sufficiently “dismantled.”

Ben-Gvir is among other far-right politicians who hold substantial sway in Netanyahu’s ruling coalition and who have fought for the military to retain control over the entire strip. 

Hamas also requested adjustments to the line in the map behind which Israeli forces are to withdraw, Hamdan said, ensuring that the military would pull back from densely populated areas in Gaza City, northern Gaza, Rafah and Khan Younis.

According to Hamdan, the agreement also stipulates the reopening of the Rafah crossing, along with five other crossings, to allow 600 aid trucks per day into Gaza. International organizations would be responsible for distributing aid instead of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which he described as “a trap to kill the Palestinian people.”

Israeli hostages, both living and dead, are to be released in exchange for 250 Palestinians serving life sentences in Israeli prisons, including Barghouti and Saadat, as well as 1,700 prisoners from Gaza, Hamdan said.

Multiple nations have already begun pledging funds to rebuild the Gaza Strip. The World Bank estimates the cost of Gaza's reconstruction at around US$80 billion.

Speaking to Mada Masr earlier in the week, the Egyptian official also said that Egypt and Turkey are already discussing building a camp in southern Gaza to provide temporary shelter for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced by the war.