Sudan Nashra: In wake of Wad Madani’s fall, Burhan makes unannounced visit to military base in capital | Citizens undertake harrowing exodus to escape RSF

The conflict in Sudan has taken a new turn with the recent capture of Wad Madani, the country’s second-largest city and a key economic hub, by the Rapid Support Forces. This has not only heightened the level of threat to other Sudanese states, but also coincided with an unprecedented surge in  military and security preparations across areas under Sudanese military control.

The RSF’s control over Wad Madani and large parts of the Gezira State, located to the south of Greater Khartoum, has sparked outrage among Sudanese Armed Forces leadership and raised alarm among civilians. In the midst of the military’s defeat, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the military and the country’s Transitional Sovereignty Council, has left his de facto capital in Port Sudan and headed to a military base in Omdurman, according to a senior military source who spoke to Mada Masr.

Meanwhile, Wad Madani is the scene for mass panic since the RSF captured the city and the armed forces withdrew. Thousands of people have fled, many on foot or on the backs of animals. International relief organizations that were stationed in the city, which had been home to hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the war, have also withdrawn from the city. Major hospitals are now out of service, and there is a looming risk of disruption to agricultural production in the state as it hosts one of the largest agricultural projects in the Arab and African worlds.

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Military state of emergency: Burhan departs to Wadi Sidna

A state of emergency has been declared in several Sudanese states under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces in the north, east, and south of the country, following the deteriorating military situation in the aftermath of Wad Madani’s capture. The RSF has expanded deployments in large parts of Gezira State, moving south from their troop stronghold in the capital.

Amid anger and dissatisfaction within the Sudanese military leadership, Burhan left Port Sudan on Tuesday evening for the Wadi Sidna military base in Omdurman, one of the three cities that make up the capital, before returning to Port Sudan on Wednesday, according to a two senior military sources who spoke to Mada Masr.

One of the military sources stated that Burhan's visit to Wadi Sidna is aimed at establishing new military arrangements in the wake of the armed forces’ collapse in Wad Madani, a move the source said was necessary given the loss of the city and that Burhan had inspected the First Infantry Division in Wad Madani just two weeks before its fall. The source also disclosed that Burhan appointed a new commander for the division.

In addition, a military source in the Nile River State, north of Khartoum, told Mada Masr that the Shendi Third Division has raised its military readiness to the highest level. The division has redeployed troops in the state and placed advanced defenses on high alert, while maintaining continuous border patrols.

Furthermore, the Northern State, which extends northward to the borders with Egypt and Libya, southward to Omdurman and North Kordofan, and westward to Darfur, has also raised its security readiness level, according to a source in the state's intelligence agency who spoke to Mada Masr.

Moreover, the states of White Nile, Sennar, and Gadarif have increased their military readiness and security measures, according to military sources in these states who spoke to Mada Masr. The White Nile State borders Khartoum, to the south, via the cities of Khartoum and Omdurman. Sennar State is located to the south of Wad Madani, while Gadarif is situated southeast of Sudan.

In a statement published by the Sudanese Sovereignty Council on Thursday evening, Burhan pledged to hold all negligent parties involved in the Wad Madani events responsible and underlined that the military remain cohesive and strong, things that have come under doubt in recent days. 

The military commander also struck a hardline stance, saying that the Sudanese Armed Forces will not sign a peace agreement that disgraces the military and the Sudanese people, calling for a ceasefire in which rebels would leave public facilities, hospitals and civilian homes. 

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Back to square one

The takeover of Wad Madani by the RSF has brought the war back to square one. Around 500,000 displaced people have been forced to flee their homes once again, seeking refuge in the states of Sennar, Gadarif, Blue Nile, and Kassala.

An official from the state’s Humanitarian Aid Commission told Mada Masr that the capture of Wad Madani by the RSF will force approximately 500,000 displaced people, along with the city's residents, to flee once again under very dire circumstances. With no security, whatever money and belongings they managed to carry with them will be vulnerable to looting.

Mada Masr correspondent Mohamed Alagra, who was in Wad Madani, was one of the tens of thousands who fled the city in recent days in fear of being subject to the same violations committed by the RSF in Khartoum and several other cities and regions in Darfur that had fallen under their control. He told Mada Masr that he and a group of journalists escaped the city once the RSF took over and intense battles broke out, being forced to trek 50 km on foot over the course of two days to reach safety. The journey, he said, was perilous, without any security provided to him or others making their way out of Gezira State.

The mass exodus from Wad Madani began on Monday evening, as news spread among residents about the RSF’s entrance into the city and the military’s withdrawal. 

"I was accompanied by three other colleagues, and on the same day, we left our residence and the designated workplace for journalists in the Ashir neighborhood in the heart of the city, following the escalating battles in the other areas and the falling of shells in the region. The military had also deployed snipers in the neighborhood overlooking Blue Nile Street," Alagra said. "During our first journey toward the Mayo neighborhood, located in the southern part of the city and several kilometers away from the headquarters of the main military division in the state, we heard the sounds of clashes and saw intense airstrikes and shelling on sites in Hantoub and the eastern neighborhoods and villages of Wad Madani, which were the main battlegrounds before they moved further inland."

"Before reaching our new destination, we passed through the souq and several important sites, such as the state government headquarters, local ministries and the main market,” he continued. “It was noticeable to see mobilized youth and police officers armed with traditional military weapons — Kalashnikov rifles. Some traders had already decided to settle their affairs in advance, and the market witnessed a significant movement of goods being transported out of the city."

In the Mayo neighborhood, upon receiving news on Monday evening about the RSF’s entry into Wad Madani and their crossing of the Hantoub Bridge without significant resistance, Alagra said that panic spread among the residents. Hastily, they carried their lightest and most valuable belongings and moved south toward the villages in the Gezira and Sennar states, which are considered among the safest places in Sudan.

“At around 10 pm, after receiving confirmed information from eyewitnesses about the atrocities committed by the RSF, we decided to leave the city,” Alagra said. “The information included accounts of house lootings in the Dabaghah neighborhood, the killing of a citizen in Monira neighborhood, the terrorizing of people in Daragah neighborhood, and the vandalism and theft from commercial shops in the market.”

"When we departed, we faced a significant challenge in securing private transportation, particularly for a colleague with a physical disability. After much struggle, we found a tuk-tuk, but it was out of fuel. We decided to push it in the hope of finding gas at the nearest point. Unfortunately, our efforts proved futile, and we ended up walking more than 50 km alongside other displaced people for two days until we reached our destination in Sennar State," Alagra says.

"There was a widespread power outage in the city, especially in the eastern neighborhoods. The closure of shops led to a shortage of food supplies. Moreover, there was a great difficulty in obtaining fuel, with prices skyrocketing to exorbitant levels, reaching US$150 per gallon of gasoline."

He emphasized that throughout the journey, waves of displaced people marched on, engaging in discussions about the situation involving the RSF’s checkpoints and looting, saying the militia is forcing those fleeing to return to Wad Madani.

One of those fleeing who had been originally displaced from Khartoum said he had just established a mechanic workshop in Wad Madani with great difficulty only to watch the RSF violently seize it from him. Another person recounted being threatened at gunpoint before his mobile phone was stolen. Meanwhile, others confirmed reports of vandalism and looting targeting several factories in the city on Tuesday, according to Alagra.

It is not only the residents of Wad Madani who are under threat, but people in all the neighboring states. Some have already started packing their belongings to head towards Port Sudan in the east or even leave the country altogether.

One citizen, Abu al-Qasim Mohamed, told Mada Masr that he has decided to send his family to Uganda rather than face the RSF, citing their reputation for committing massacres and looting properties in the city of Kosti in the White Nile State. This sentiment is reflected in the increased demand for flights to Entebbe, according to a source in Tarco Airlines who said that the number of flights has increased to five flights per week.

Meanwhile, a travel agency owner in Port Sudan told Mada Masr that there has been a surge in demand for tickets to Uganda, as well as visas to Egypt, which are currently limited. She pointed out that some have started searching for alternative options, either turning to the parallel market, where the price of an Egyptian visa reached approximately$2,400, or resorting to smugglers to help them cross the borders.

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Once a refuge for the displaced and a business hub

Wad Madani had been a destination for many Khartoum residents. According to a former state government official, approximately 7 million displaced people from Khartoum have sought refuge in the city over the past nine months. Moreover, it had become a new hub for businessmen and a center for higher education institutions.

The source also says that banks had restored their systems in Wad Madani branches, elevating the city’s status as an important economic center. This is especially true for commercial trade between the western and central states of Sudan, which are still under government control. Wad Madani had also emerged as a transit point for goods heading toward western Sudan, before the fall of four out of the five Darfur states into the hands of the RSF and the subsequent halt in transportation.

A professor at the University of Khartoum’s Faculty of Medicine told Mada Masr that they had established an examination center to facilitate students’ affairs and conduct exams, adding that students of other faculties had already taken exams in the facility last month.

The source added that watching students, professors, and university staff flee once again in the wake of the events in Wad Madani evoked memories of April 15.The fall of Wad Madani has further complicated the situation, requiring an additional six months to organize and normalize the university’s operations.

The University of Khartoum is not alone in the struggle to adapt. Several other universities have also begun rearranging their affairs in light of the conflict’s developments, following the higher education minister’s directive to resume studies in universities capable of doing so.

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A destination for treatment

Wad Madani has also witnessed the transfer of several hospitals and healthcare facilities that cater to around 300,000 Sudanese citizens. A source from the Federal Health Ministry told Mada Masr that this number has increased by 30 percent since the outbreak of the war, and that the fall of the city this week led to a complete disruption of treatment for these patients. This interruption can be attributed to either the direct impact on the facilities caused by the RSF’s arrival or the absence of medical staff, with most of them fleeing the state. The source further stated that, as a consequence of  the RSF’s control over the state, approximately 900 healthcare institutions will cease to operate.

The owner of a pharmaceutical company that relocated from Khartoum to Wad Madani told Mada Masr he lost around $2 million worth of medicines in the former. He managed to transfer $3 million worth of medicines to Wad Madani, but those are now firmly in the hands of RSF soldiers and thieves. He expressed doubt about whether he would be able to retrieve them again.

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Winter farming season in the storm’s path

The Gezira Scheme, one of the world’s biggest irrigation projects, has made the decision to exclude some areas in the northern part of its designated lands from its plan for the winter farming season, reducing the cultivated area by half. This occurred before the RSF’s invasion, according to farmers in the state who spoke to Mada Masr.

The Gezira Scheme is primarily grappling with challenges related to irrigation and financing, as the impact of the war has taken its toll on the capabilities of the Finance Ministry and the Farmers' Commercial Bank. As a result, the total area available for cultivation, which originally amounted to 1.8 million feddans, will now be limited to the Nile River and Northern states following the RSF’s invasion and the subsequent cessation of the state’s duties, according to a government source in the Finance Ministry who spoke to Mada Masr.

A source in the Agriculture Ministry told Mada Masr that they were planning to cultivate approximately 2 million acres. However, due to the current circumstances, this goal is no longer attainable and has been reduced by half or less. The ministry is currently preparing a report on the consequences of the state’s invasion by the rebel forces.

A farmer in the Managil area in southern Gezira told Mada Masr that even before the war, they were already struggling to pay debts to the irrigation and finance ministries, as well as the banks. However, after the war, the farmers fell into bankruptcy, with some even serving prison sentences due to their inability to repay agricultural financing debts. 

The summer season has failed in large parts of the project. The farmer added that the reasons behind the failure of the summer season persist even after the RSF’s invasion of the state's capital. Yet, the recent development implies that banks and the Finance Ministry will cease to provide any resources for agriculture, leaving farmers vulnerable to hunger and the project susceptible to drought. People will be left without any means of livelihood.

Gezira State is considered one of the most vital agricultural states in Sudan. The Gezira Scheme, established in 1925, is one of the most important agricultural projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Sudanese government relies on it for wheat production, while approximately 57,000 farmers depend on the project for their livelihood. The cultivation of wheat takes place across an area of 530,000 acres.

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Politically, civil forces continue to strive to bring the warring parties back to the negotiating table. Recently, a conference dedicated to resolving the conflict was held in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, from December 17-18. 

Al-Rih Mohamed al-Sadek, a member of the Civil Democratic Forces’ executive office, told Mada Masr that the coordination committee has authorized the political communication committee to engage in direct meetings with military and RSF leaders in the coming days. He also announced the immediate initiation of communications and urgent dispatch of letters to conflict parties.

Sadek added that the meeting addressed the escalation and expansion of the conflict in South Darfur, Gezira, and other regions across Sudan. He emphasized that the primary objective of these meetings is to protect civilians, provide humanitarian aid, and ultimately urge the parties to sit at the negotiating table and agree to the IGAD initiative and return to the Jeddah Platform to achieve a ceasefire. 

He further explained that the meeting granted approval to finalize the structures and vision of the Civil Democratic Forces, in addition to approving the timeline for convening the founding conference of the coordination committee, with a deadline of February 21-28. Furthermore, a series of workshops will be held before the conference, focusing on security and military reform, establishing a unified professional army, civil service reform, and other politically-oriented issues that demand attention during negotiations. 

Regarding the activities of the armed groups signatory to the Juba Agreement for Peace in Sudan, Justice and Equality Movement spokesperson Hassan Ibrahim Fadl announced the scheduling of another meeting in the  South Sudanese capital in the near future. 

Ibrahim told Mada Masr that the meeting aims to resume the discussions held in October which sought viable strategies to effectively halt the ongoing conflict. He also mentioned the consensus reached in the previous meeting to extend an invitation to the South Sudanese government to convene and crystallize those visions. 

Furthermore, he revealed that plans were in place for the South Sudanese government to engage in dialogue with the Democratic Bloc, while simultaneously scheduling a meeting that would bring together all Sudanese camps to address the issue of ceasing hostilities. Ibrahim added that the armed groups signatories of the Juba Agreement call for inclusive and comprehensive dialogue among all Sudanese camps, with the exception of the former ruling National Congress Party.