French-led ceasefire in Gaza ‘imminent’ as US ramps up pressure on Israel to settle outside UNSC

After several days of Egyptian pressure to reach a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, an agreement could be imminent to end the deadly bombing of Gaza as the United States moves to ramp up its pressure on the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the Biden administration’s initial intransigence, according to two Egyptian sources informed of Egypt’s diplomatic communications with the US government, Palestinian factions and Israel. 

The ceasefire agreement could be sealed in around 48 hours, depending on the situation on the ground and the coordination efforts between a number of capitals, including Ankara, Paris, Doha, Cairo, Amman, Washington DC and Berlin, the two Egyptian sources said. 

Netanyahu is set to convene the security cabinet at 7 pm Jerusalem time on Thursday to discuss the Gaza operation and the possibility of a ceasefire. Three Israeli officials told the New York Times yesterday that a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel could be reached within 48 hours.

Egypt proposed a simultaneous ceasefire earlier this week. An Egyptian source previously told Mada Masr that Israel insisted that the resistance forces, headed by Hamas, stop rocket fire toward Israel on Tuesday, while Israel would gradually reduce its assault on Gaza to come to a complete halt on Thursday. Hamas, meanwhile, insisted on a simultaneous ceasefire, a position that Egypt supported. Since then, each side has sent mixed signals about the timeline for a potential ceasefire deal. 

 According to one of the Egyptian sources, Thursday’s progress toward a ceasefire comes after Paris has taken on a more active role in the negotiations, holding intense talks with the US over the last two days as it prepares to propose a resolution in the United Nations Security Council calling for a ceasefire and addressing the humanitarian situation in the occupied territories and Israel. 

The French proposal appears to be putting some pressure on the US administration. Publicly supported by Egypt and Jordan —as well as the United Kingdom if it makes its way to the Security Council — the resolution has the sufficient requirements to be listed on the council’s agenda for discussion, a French source told Mada Masr. 

The UN General Assembly held a session on Thursday to discuss the situation in Palestine and Israel, with Secretary-General António Guterres saying, “The fighting must stop immediately. I appeal to all parties to cease hostilities, now. I reiterate my call on all sides for an immediate ceasefire.”

However, UN Security Council members have not necessarily been in lockstep in the international efforts to halt Israel’s bombing of Gaza. The United States, which provided US$3.8 billion in foreign military aid and guaranteed about another $8 billion to Israel in 2019, has blocked several Security Council actions that called for a halt of the Israeli strikes and urged a ceasefire. In the midst of Israel's attack on Gaza, the Biden administration approved a $735 million arms sale to Israel, which is now receiving pushback from progressive lawmakers in the Senate and the House of Representatives. 

According to an Egyptian source, the US wants to avoid a situation where the resolution is taken up for a discussion by the Security Council with a ceasefire not settled to avoid using its veto power to obstruct the French resolution. In turn, the US is seeking to reach a ceasefire outside of the Security Council, a pledge it made to Israel, the Egyptian source added. 

Other regional developments and considerations are also pushing several capitals to press for the ceasefire, including fears over Lebanese involvement in the conflict, mass protests in Arab capitals, and the US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations, several sources told Mada Masr. 

According to one of the Egyptian sources, an “important development” in the US-Iran talks on the nuclear agreement could be pushing Iran to support Hamas in agreeing on a ceasefire. 

On the French side, the other Egyptian source said that Paris is interested in ending the strikes as part of an effort to keep Lebanon from being dragged into the crisis after rockets were fired from southern Lebanon on three different occasions, the latest of which was yesterday. A diplomatic source from the United Nations also pointed to concerns about the possible Lebanese involvement, pointing to efforts by several capitals to keep Lebanon out of the equation. To this end, ending the strikes is imperative, said the UN source. 

Internally, Netanyahu is also under growing pressure to move toward a ceasefire, especially from the security cabinet in Israel, according to a Western diplomat based in Cairo. 

“Active capitals must tell Netanyahu that he needs to accept the fact that he lost the battle and that he will not be able to get a hold on the leaders of the Palestinians factions who were on his list of targets,” the UN diplomatic source said.

A senior Israeli official and two other sources confirmed to the New York Times on Thursday that a ceasefire is likely in the next two days. 

However, Israel continues to bomb the besieged strip and rhetoric continues to run high. Responding to reports that Hamas had conditioned a ceasefire on concessions in Sheikh Jarrah and Al-Aqsa Mosque, the Israeli Minister for Settlement Affairs Tzachi Hanegbi said, “The only way there'll be a Hamas-Jerusalem link is if they agree to us drowning them on Jerusalem Beach in Tel Aviv.”

Israel continues to conduct strikes on Gaza ahead of the possible ceasefire. The casualties from the 11-day assault on Gaza continue to rise, reaching 232 deaths and 1,900 injuries, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Outside of Gaza, Palestinians have held protests across the West Bank, Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and in cities that were annexed to Israel in 1948. A general strike on Tuesday saw tens of thousands of Palestinian laborers, including 64,000 Palestinian construction workers from the West Bank, refuse to work to protest Israeli state violence.