Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia resume negotiations over Ethiopia’s mega-dam in Addis Ababa

Another round of talks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continued on Saturday for three days, with representatives from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan meeting in Addis Ababa.

This is the fourth installment of a new series of talks that began this year. But they mark yet another spin around a cycle of negotiations that has lasted almost 12 years without determining how the Nile dam, which Ethiopia has built to support its energy ambitions, can be balanced alongside the water security of downstream Nile-dependent Sudan and Egypt.

The dam is already built and operational. Ethiopia completed in September the fourth phase of the GERD’s filling, and has laid out plans for a fifth, with Egypt continuing to be outspoken in its condemnation of the Ethiopian government. Cairo has frequently pointed to “intransigence” in Addis Ababa’s negotiating stance.

This round of talks aims to finalize rules on how the GERD will be operated and filled going forward, stemming from an agreement reached in July by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who pledged to reach an agreement by December.

Yet the ongoing talks, which began Sunday and are set to conclude on Monday, are yet to see any fireworks. No official body has commented yet on the talks, which were reported in news outlets citing anonymous sources.

A government official speaking to Mada Masr in July said that the dam is a fait accompli that Egypt cannot change and that the government is now focusing on ensuring it can secure a minimum guarantee for the provision of water during droughts.

The series of talks since July has been attended by representatives from the three countries’ water ministries, though none of the countries had made official statements to mark their attendance at the Addis Ababa talks at the time of publication.

Over the past 12 years, the United States and the African Union have both attempted to mediate different editions of talks, efforts that eventually stalled. The UAE emerged as a potential new actor in negotiations in 2022. In that year, an Egyptian government official and an informed political source in the Gulf told Mada Masr that Abu Dhabi had proposed a US$20 billion economic development plan to Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia — all of which are mired in looming economic crises — in order to bypass the political deadlock over the filling and management of the dam.