Sudan Nashra: Military races to control Gezira before autumn | Gaili battle to dictate fate of Khartoum war | Musa Hilal throws weight behind military

The war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continues to rage on, as new armed groups throw themselves into the ring, taking up positions on either side even as they have their own agendas. 

Sudan’s war, now in its second year, has unleashed one of the largest humanitarian catastrophes in modern history. With around 8.2 million people displaced and about 15,000 civilians killed, the battleground has expanded to engulf eight key states, which are among the most densely populated in Sudan.

Despite this unparalleled humanitarian tragedy, the fighting persists unabated, steered by commanders adamant about a military resolution. 

Since reclaiming control of the old Omdurman area in March, the military has adopted strategic shifts in its operations. The military is gaining more ground on the RSF, who have been losing strategic positions and grappling with continuous supply disruptions inflicted by the military’s drones and air force. 

The Sudanese military has been increasingly employing drones as offensive weapons in place of the special operations forces, now restricted to specific military positions, including the Shagara military area in southern Khartoum, and the frontline offensive positions in the Managil axis in Gezira State, which is considered the decisive battleground in the bid for central Sudan. 

On the ground, there are three main battlefronts. The first is the Jaili area in northern Bahri, one of the three cities that make up the capital Khartoum, which houses the Jaili oil refinery and has been under the RSF’s control since the outbreak of conflict on April 15, 2023. The refinery is not only strategically important for supply lines but also stands as an impenetrable bastion against airstrikes.

The second battlefront is in Gezira State in central Sudan, where military operations are progressing along three main axes: the Faw-Wad Madani axis, where the military has made significant advances toward Wad Madani, now around 17 kilometers away; the Managil-Wad Madani axis, posing greater challenges for the military; and the Sennar-Wad Madani axis, where defensive strategies have been employed to counter potential RSF infiltration into the military’s rear lines.

Third, in the westernmost region, military operations are ongoing in North Darfur, one of the last military strongholds in the Darfur region. The Zaghawa tribes have been mobilizing toward Fasher, with the largest wave of reinforcements arriving when the Sudan Liberation Movement, led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur, sent 100 trucks to the city this week. This comes after two prior groups from the Zaghawa armed groups sent forces to the city. The first was of dissident groups in Libya, mobilizing after coordinating with the military, and the second comprised Zaghawa members from across the Darfur region. 

In the strategic Kordofan region, through which key RSF supply lines run, in central and southwestern Sudan, the Dar Hamid tribes issued a statement denouncing the RSF’s repeated attacks on them, which, the statement said, has prompted them to drop their neutrality against the RSF. 

The involvement of the Dar Hamid tribe in the conflict signifies the implementation of the alliance agreement inked last December, where Major tribes in Kordofan, led by General Kafi Tayara, entered into an agreement prohibiting the RSF from using routes that pass through tribal territories in Kordofan.

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Jaili battles reach peak as military advances in Obeid

In the vicinity of the Jaili oil refinery north of the Sudanese capital Khartoum, significant and extensive battles are taking place as the military pushes forward on two fronts. In the northern axis, the military launched offensives on RSF positions, forcing them to retreat several kilometers, according to a military field source who spoke to Mada Masr. The second axis is to the east of the refinery, where the military and allied armed groups are advancing. 

Drones have been deployed to target key points around the refinery, allowing the military to advance. According to field sources, the RSF planted mines around the refinery, making the military’s mission challenging. The military was able to destroy companies’ fuel storage facilities. However, they were unable to advance toward the refinery. 

The refinery, which the RSF captured on April 15, 2023, has a strategic significance. For one, the military seeks to regain control of the oil flow from South Sudan, since the Sudanese Petroleum Ministry officially declared a force majeure on oil deliveries through the pipeline from South Sudan for export. 

Moreover, the refinery’s recapture will enable the military to assert its control over the entire northern area of Khartoum State, effectively linking land routes. This means that the military would control the roads connecting the Nile River State to Khartoum, and subsequently to Kassala and Gezira states, thereby securing all eastern states and shifting the battles westward, where various conflicts are taking place.

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Obeid battles

In the city of Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, the military’s Fifth Infantry Division managed to defeat the RSF at the city’s western gate. The military launched attacks on various locations that were captured by the RSF last year and successfully reclaimed them in intense battles during this week. The military seized seven combat vehicles and detained a RSF field commander.

Obeid holds strategic importance as one of the key cities in the Kordofan region, linking the western states to the central ones. It also houses a military airport and a large military base. 

Some tribes surrounding Obeid took up hostilities against the RSF following the capture of some of the youth of their tribes. A local source from the Dar Hamid tribe told Mada Masr that the tribal administration declared war on the RSF due to the violations committed against the tribe, including killings, capturing youths, and seizing properties of tribe members.

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Gezira battles persist, military has upper hand

Military operations in Gezira State in central Sudan have entered their second month, initiated by the military in March with backing from the operations authority — the military wing of the Sudanese General Intelligence Service. Additionally, combat forces affiliated with the Justice and Equality Movement led by Gibril Ibrahim, as well as the Sudan Liberation Movement Army led by Minni Arko Minnawi, are also fighting alongside the military. 

The military and its allied forces are involved in three main axes: the Faw-Wad Madani axis in the east, the Sennar-Wad Madani axis in the south, and the Managil-Wad Madani axis in the west.

According to field sources, the military advanced on two axes, the eastern and western fronts, while facing challenges in the southern axis. A military source told Mada Masr that the military’s setback in the southern axis was due to the RSF infiltrating behind the military’s frontlines and encroaching into the northern regions of Sennar State. This leaves the military susceptible to potential attacks on its advanced positions and increases the risk of Sennar being targeted.

The RSF employs infiltration tactics by deploying small combat groups that converge at a designated point, often targeting sensitive areas such as villages with fuel resources or searching for vehicles for combat use. The source added that the RSF advanced across the river, using small fishing boats common in the Sennar region.

Regarding the western axis, a military source in Managil City told Mada Masr that the military’s advancement is notably swift, unlike the southern axis. The source attributed the military’s progress to the RSF’s limited incursions into villages and their restrained attempts to set up defensive ambushes. This situation has enabled the military to push forward and breach the frontlines of RSF-affiliated militias. The source added that the battle for Wad Madani will not be easy for the military due to the city's exposed layout and civilian presence, making it akin to a condensed version of Khartoum’s battle.

Military sources told Mada Masr that the Gezira battle is crucial not only from a military perspective but also for the stability of the remaining Sudanese states. They stressed the imperative of regaining control before the fall season, as the land routes connecting the western states to the central states will be cut off due to the rainy season. The population heavily relies on the land route between Managil and Kosti after the RSF cut off the route between Kosti and Wad Madani. The route links Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira, to the White Nile State and its capital Kosti. From there, it further links Kosti to the rest of the western states, particularly Obeid, through which goods and humanitarian aid flow to Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.

The source added that if the military fails to secure Gezira State by fall, this would mean the isolation of Darfur, Kordofan, and the White Nile States from the new administrative capital of Port Sudan, leading to a scenario where the RSF effectively dominates these states due to the military’s inability to assert control. The cities would then become effectively besieged for a period of five or six months, potentially leading to West Kordofan and South Kordofan States falling outside the military’s control, with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-Northled by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu expanding their influence in these states, according to military sources.

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Fighting escalates in Fasher

Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State, remains a major battleground in Sudan’s ongoing war, with fighting causing displacement of civilians, particularly from the city’s northern and eastern outskirts, to safer locations. This city is also grappling with multiple crises related to the provision of essential services, food and water.

According to sources in the field, clashes broke out on Monday in the northern and eastern neighborhoods, resulting in the death of a civilian and the injury of another due to indiscriminate shelling.

Local sources told Mada Masr that the RSF launched an attack on Umm Marahik north of Fasher on Saturday, committing widespread violations against civilians, including arson and looting several stores.

Meanwhile, the warring factions continue to deploy more forces and military equipment in preparation for what is anticipated to be decisive battles in Fasher. Both military-allied armed movements and the RSF-aligned militias have released footage showing reinforcements arriving and conducting surveillance and deployment operations.

Fasher, one of the last key strongholds under the military’s control and a major refuge for those fleeing conflicts in Darfur, is facing severe humanitarian challenges. Senior United Nations Security Council officials warned last week that around 800,000 people there are at "extreme and immediate risk" due to escalating violence and the potential outbreak of tribal bloodshed.

UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo told the UN Security Council that clashes between RSF and military-affiliated armed movements are approaching Fasher, potentially triggering tribal violence across Darfur.

Moreover, citizens have voiced concerns about the struggles to meet basic living needs in Fasher, citing soaring food prices and a critical water crisis due to power outages and fuel shortages for operating water pumps.

Government sources told Mada Masr that only nine out of 43 wells are currently operational in Fasher due to electricity shortages.

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Musa Hilal returns to the forefront 

The leader of the Mahamid clan and the Sudanese Awakening Revolutionary Council head Musa Hilal’s reappearance and his official endorsement of the military over the RSF has stirred widespread debate in Sudanese circles. Some anticipate that this move could trigger significant shifts on the ground and prompt communities to rally behind Hilal, overshadowing his cousin and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti."

On Monday, Hilal announced his alignment with the military and state institutions against the RSF, addressing a gathering of his supporters and allies in Umm Sant in North Darfur State.

Hilal, a prominent figure of the ousted President Omar al-Bashir's regime and one of those implicated in the atrocities committed during the previous Darfur conflict as a leader of the now-RSF core, criticized the RSF’s portrayal of victimhood. The RSF narrative denounces what they dub as the "1956 state," referring to Sudan's independence and the empowerment of certain political and social classes at the expense of others. Hilal stated, "Those who claim to fight against the ‘56 state are ignorant and arrogant and know nothing about Sudan.” He emphasized that “the ‘56 state can only mean Sudan's independence and the national figures who fought against colonialism.”

Hilal stressed that defending the nation with full force is a duty, affirming allegiance to the military and police, within the framework of the Awakening Revolutionary Council under his leadership. Hilal articulated plans to proceed with recruitment, training, and military promotions, as several tribal leaders requested his intervention to resolve the country's crisis, stressing the need to uphold the state as a means to attain stability and peace.

Given that Hilal leads the Mahamid clan within the Rozayqat tribe which constitutes the majority of RSF military personnel, observers believe that the tribal leader’s recent move will have profound consequences, potentially sparking new alignments and escalating conflicts in western Sudan.

Prior to this development, Hilal mobilized a large force to return from Libya to the Mostariha area in North Darfur State. This force had previously withdrawn to Libya following clashes with the RSF in 2017, which culminated in Hilal’s embarrassing arrest and subsequent release in March 2021.

However, not all parties are pleased with Hilal’s recent stance, particularly those aligned with the RSF. Some members of the clan convened a press conference to denounce his declaration and pledge their allegiance to Hemedti. They argued that the military is engaged in a war where lines are blurred between unarmed civilians and the RSF within military operations. 

Anwar Khater, the head of the Mahamid coordination committee, told Mada Masr that Hilal's speech holds significant social implications for Darfur. He said that Hilal’s message could sway many disillusioned individuals who were misled by Hemedti’s rhetoric and the mobilization that took place in Darfur and Kordofan against “our people in the north and Khartoum, influenced by the ‘56-state propaganda.” 

Khater said that Hilal's position has been clear from the outset, aimed at fostering trust with the local community while attempting to sever ties between local tribal militias and the RSF, who tried to deceive them by portraying the government as an adversary to their ethnicity and community.

On April 4, Hilal survived an assassination attempt in the Mostariha area, where armed individuals opened fire on him, injuring others before his guards intervened. In his latest speech, Hilal attributed the attack to undisclosed entities.

However, Khater said that Hilal pardoned the groups involved in the assassination attempt and deported them to Chad, where they came from but accused the RSF leadership of orchestrating the attempt.

Hilal's alignment and stance have garnered support from various political forces and military-allied armed movements. On X, Justice and Equality Movement leader and Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim stated, "The war instigated by the RSF militia after its failed coup is not an ethnic war but a distinctly foreign agenda in terms of objectives, structure, and financing." He added that “the militia is a tool and a facade, with Hilal's declared stance serving as a significant indicator of the current situation. The situation should not be allowed to transform into tribal or affiliation warfare.”

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Geneva: Nothing new to offer after Paris

Nimr Abdel Rahman, a member of the leadership council of the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council and former governor of North Darfur, said that the brainstorming session held on April 19 in Montreux, Switzerland, from April 17 to 20 was an informal consultative meeting among a group of political leaders from Sudanese parties, alliances, and political blocs. The proceedings were held at the invitation of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and facilitated by the Promediation organization,

Abdel Rahman told Mada Masr that the participants, in their personal capacities, deliberated on three main focal points. These included analyzing the causes, progression, and changing nature of the war and its repercussions on the nation and its population. 

Additionally, they reviewed the perspectives and stances held by the political blocs represented by the attendees in order to identify commonalities and divergences in their viewpoints. 

They also discussed the potential roles that civilians could assume in the ceasefire process, identifying stakeholders involved in the political process, and the issues to be addressed, including the transitional phase constitution, transitional phase program, the establishment of transitional structures, formulating a permanent constitution, and preparing the country for general elections.

Abdel Rahman said that the participants agreed on ending the war by implementing a negotiated ceasefire aimed at achieving a comprehensive cessation of hostilities for humanitarian purposes. This would be followed by an inclusive all-Sudanese dialogue to address all aspects of the ongoing political crisis, which would precede reaching a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. Preliminary meetings would pave the way, culminating in a roundtable discussion to be overseen by the African Union, and the establishment of a democratic constitutional framework that upholds and navigates diversity within a unified federal Sudan.