Sudan Nashra: Military encircles RSF in central Khartoum | Following constitutional amendments, ‘caretaker’ govt in the making | Escalating violence in South Sudan threatens renewed civil war

As the Sudanese military continues its advance in central Khartoum, preparations are underway in Port Sudan to announce a new government. This follows constitutional amendments made weeks ago by the Transitional Sovereignty Council and the cabinet, granting the current ruling parties another 39-month transitional period.

Meanwhile, sovereignty council Deputy Chair Malik Agar is on a regional tour to oppose the Rapid Support Forces’ call for a parallel government and lobby for Sudan’s reinstatement in the African Union (AU). In Djibouti, he held talks with President Omar Ismail Guelleh and AU Commission chief Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, focusing on reinstating Sudan’s AU membership.

This comes as the AU’s Peace and Security Council, in a summit chaired by Morocco, reaffirmed on Tuesday its rejection of any measures that could lead to Sudan’s fragmentation, including the establishment of a parallel government, in a reference to the RSF’s recent bid to form a government-in-exile.

Across the border in South Sudan, fears of a renewed descent into civil war are mounting amid escalating political and security tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. The crisis comes in the wake of continued clashes in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, where the county’s military commander was killed, followed by an arrest campaign against military and political figures aligned with Machar in Juba — including the military’s deputy chief of staff.

Uganda deployed special forces to Juba to protect Kiir, while the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) warned on Wednesday of the deteriorating situation, stressing that the 2018 revitalized peace agreement between the government and Machar remains the cornerstone of South Sudan’s stability.

Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, which is under the control of the RSF, has been spiraling into chaos as forces from the paramilitary group returning from central Sudan have turned to widespread looting. The RSF leadership in the city has lost command of its troops and the RSF-appointed local government has been content with imposing heavy taxes on already exorbitant goods at local markets rather than moving to fix the increasing disorder.

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Multi-front push toward presidential palace, military ambushes in RSF-held areas in southern Jebel Awliya

Military forces advanced on two key fronts in Khartoum this week, capturing strategic highrise buildings in the city center and engaging RSF fighters in battles near Jebel Awliya in the far south. 

In central Khartoum, clashes on Monday and Tuesday saw the military seize several buildings where RSF snipers had been positioned to slow down the military’s push toward the RSF-held presidential palace and the Arab market area, a field source told Mada Masr. Meanwhile, in the south, fighting broke out on Tuesday in villages near the Jebel Awliya Dam as military forces attempted to push northward from Geteina in White Nile State, a military source said. 

With its forces quickly losing ground across the capital, the RSF is fiercely defending its last strategic positions in central Khartoum and their main supply line through  Jebel Awliya. The loss of the Bahri and East Nile localities in recent weeks has left the paramilitary group increasingly isolated, with the Jebel Awliya Bridge remaining its sole access point to Khartoum city.

In the battle for the presidential palace, the military opened a new front on Wednesday along Nile Street, on the southern bank of the Blue Nile, deploying urban warfare specialists from the General Intelligence Service, the field source said.

Ground offensives toward the presidential palace and central Khartoum are advancing from multiple directions. In the east, units are advancing westward from the General Command headquarters via Republic, Gamaa, Baladiya and now also Nile streets. In the west, forces in the Mogran area are pushing eastward, while Armored Corps forces are advancing north from the Huriyya Bridge axis. 

In response, the RSF has entrenched itself in highrise buildings, deploying snipers and elite forces to slow the military’s advance, relying on supply routes via Jebel Awliya.

The General Command has devised plans and preparations that will enable the military to decisively win the battle for central Khartoum, a senior military officer told Mada Masr. However, they said, it is deliberately advancing at a measured pace to minimize losses, wear down the RSF and give time for other fronts to complete preparations so that troops can advance in coordinated offensives and capture the capital. 

Losing the presidential palace would be a devastating blow to the RSF, the officer said, with consequences for battlefronts across Sudan and significant political ramifications. As a result, the paramilitary group is deploying elite forces, advanced weaponry and high-grade jamming devices. 

Further southwest, Tuesday’s clashes in villages south of the Jebel Awliya Dam lasted for six hours, with neither side making substantial gains, the military source said. The RSF reinforced the area by mobilizing fighters from southern Khartoum neighborhoods and troops withdrawing from the East Nile locality, the source added. Meanwhile, the military launched surprise attacks to weaken the RSF’s defenses and disrupt its hold on central Khartoum.

According to the source, securing the Jebel Awliya Bridge — much like the military’s recent recapture of the Manshiya Bridge and its near-unopposed advance in East Nile — could trap RSF fighters in central Khartoum and facilitate the final push to reclaim the city.

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Attempts to declare a caretaker govt following constitutional amendments 

Amid ongoing military developments in the capital, Khartoum, maneuvers are underway within the administrative capital of Port Sudan, where the newly amended constitution — endorsed and declared in February — has set the stage for the formation of a caretaker government. 

In his speech on February 2, Sudanese Sovereignty Council Chair Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced his intention to amend the constitution and establish what he described as a "caretaker or war government."

The framework for the new government is now complete, a source in the sovereignty council told Mada Masr, with its primary task being to help the state navigate the crises brought on by the war. The current executive government is under immense strain, the source said, particularly as it was formed under a different political context.

The source added that the current government is the legacy of a turbulent transitional period, making a shift in both agenda and personnel necessary. According to the source, recent meetings between the sovereignty council and the Cabinet have resulted in major adjustments aimed at strengthening transitional legislative bodies, allowing them to establish a government with the capacity to restore Sudan’s trajectory.

In his February address to political forces and armed movements, Burhan stated that the coming period would see the formation of a government tasked with completing the transition.

A source familiar with the government formation process told Mada Masr that amendments to the constitutional document were made to align with the current ruling structures’ agenda, which, according to the source, is to support the military in its mission to "liberate Sudan." While acknowledging the flaws in the constitutional document, the source stressed that there was no choice but to work within its framework given the current circumstances. There is no intention to abolish it in the process of forming the new government, they added.

One of the key amendments to the constitution introduces a new transitional period of no more than 39 months from the date of its publication in the official gazette, unless a national consensus is reached or general elections are held.

The amendments also remove any references of the RSF or the Forces of Freedom and Change, bar individuals holding foreign passports from assuming any government position and place forming and executing foreign policy under the direct supervision of the sovereignty council. 

A key revision eliminates a clause that previously designated the legislative council as the authority for legislation and oversight. Instead, it establishes a "transitional legislative authority" composed of the sovereignty council and the Cabinet, granting it legislative and oversight powers over the executive apparatus until a legislative council is formed.

The amendments also changed the composition of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, from its previous provision for civilian members, instead stipulating it consist of 11 members, including six appointed by the Armed Forces and three nominated by the signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, with gender and regional quotas allowed for the remaining positions. The council will continue to be chaired by the military’s commander-in-chief, Burhan, for the duration of the upcoming 39-month term.

Meanwhile, discussions over the appointment of a prime minister are ongoing. A source in the Cabinet’s general secretariat told Mada Masr that three candidates are being considered for the position of prime minister, with former Foreign Ministry Undersecretary and Sudan’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dafallah al-Hajj Ali emerging as the frontrunner. Ali has garnered significant approval within both the sovereignty council and Cabinet circles, the source said.

Others, such as former Ambassador Kamel Idriss who was considered a candidate, have been ruled out, the source said, dismissing reports that the sovereignty council had engaged with any nominees thus far. However, the source noted that the announcement of the prime minister is also linked to military operations in Khartoum, with indications that the appointment could be made from within the capital.

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Fears of renewed conflict in South Sudan 

Violence is escalating in South Sudan, raising concerns about a return to full-scale military confrontations as the state launched an arrest campaign against major opposition figures in the wake of clashes in the town of Nasir in Upper Nile State that have persisted since mid-February.  

On Friday, a United Nations helicopter carrying soldiers and military commanders en route to Juba came under fire, killing around 27 people on board. The aircraft was evacuating the national military’s troops from Nasir following heavy clashes in the area between the South Sudan’s People Defense Forces (SSPDF) and what Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth said was the White Army, a militia aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar.

A military source in the Upper Nile State told Mada Masr that the clashes broke out in response to the refusal of White Army fighters to withdraw from certain areas. 

The crisis deepened when, on March 4, the South Sudanese military arrested General Gabriel Duop Lam, second-in-command within the SSPDF and the chief of staff of Machar’s Sudan’s People Liberation Movement-in-Opposition and surrounded Machar’s residence. Ministers and several high-ranking military officers loyal to Machar were also arrested in the following days, further escalating tensions within Juba’s presidential palace. A senior security source in South Sudan told Mada Masr that several military figures have been placed under house arrest without any formal charges or justification.

Machar’s spokesperson warned that these acts put “the entire agreement at risk,” referring to the 2018 peace agreement between Machar and President Salva Kiir.

The 2018 peace agreement with the SPLM-IO brought an end to a brutal five-year civil war that resulted in over 400,000 casualties and the displacement of over 2.5 million people. 

On Saturday, chair of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan Yasmin Sooka cautioned that any regression into military conflict could unravel the peace agreement. She urged leaders to immediately refocus on the peace process rather than fueling division and conflict.

Meanwhile, Ugandan People’s Defense Forces chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba stated on social media that Ugandan troops are in South Sudan to protect Kiir and secure Juba. Kainerugaba, who is also the son of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, said that Uganda only recognizes Kiir’s authority and warned that any move against him would be considered a “declaration of war against Uganda.”

However, Benjamin Bol Mel, recently appointed as one of South Sudan’s vice presidents, dismissed concerns of escalating tensions, calling them unfounded rumors spread through social media by external actors seeking to destabilize the country. He added that South Sudanese authorities are working with international partners to identify and hold those responsible for such disinformation accountable.

At a press conference in Juba on Wednesday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Apuk Ayuel Mayen acknowledged recent travel advisories issued by some countries but reassured the international community that the situation in South Sudan remains calm and secure.

Following the Nasir incident, the United States ordered non-essential embassy staff to leave Juba.

Mayen stated that the government has taken all necessary measures to restore stability, with security forces working diligently to maintain peace nationwide. Addressing the Nasir attack, she described it as an isolated incident stemming from a misunderstanding during a routine military redeployment. She urged foreign embassies and countries to rely on official sources for accurate information, reaffirming that South Sudan remains a safe destination.

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Agar visits Djibouti, AU Peace and Security Council rejects parallel govt

In his second trip abroad in a week, Transitional Sovereignty Council Deputy Chair Malik Agar met on Sunday with Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh and AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.

Agar delivered a letter from Burhan to Guelleh on developing bilateral relations. He also discussed with Youssouf the prospect of Sudan’s return to the AU, particularly after it lifted its self-imposed suspension from IGAD.

On January 20, 2024, Sudan announced a complete freeze of its IGAD membership. The Sudanese Foreign Ministry later stated that Khartoum was neither bound by nor concerned with any IGAD resolutions regarding Sudan.

The decision followed an IGAD summit in Kampala, Uganda, which angered the Sudanese government by setting a timeline for a meeting between Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and outlining plans for deploying peacekeeping forces. In response, Burhan sent a letter to Djibouti’s president — the current IGAD chair — officially notifying him of Sudan’s decision to suspend its membership.

Meanwhile, the AU’s Peace and Security Council, chaired by Morocco, convened on Tuesday and firmly rejected any steps that could lead to Sudan’s fragmentation.

In its press statement on Wednesday, the council called on all AU members and the international community “not to recognize any parallel government or entity seeking to partition and govern” any part of Sudan or its institutions. It also urged them to refrain from providing support to “any armed or political group toward the establishment of a parallel government.” 

The Sudanese Foreign Ministry welcomed the stance, describing it as a reflection of the “strong commitment to the founding principles of African cooperation as established in the AU charter, the Organization of African Unity charter, the UN charter, and the rules governing the international system.”

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Fleeing fighters from central Sudan spread security chaos in Nyala

Nyala, the capital of South Darfur and one of Sudan’s largest cities, is grappling with mounting administrative and security turmoil under the control of the RSF, which has held the city since October 2023.

In recent weeks, looting and theft has surged, which a former South Darfur government official, speaking to Mada Masr, attributed to the influx of fighters fleeing Khartoum to Nyala — a key RSF stronghold that houses an airbase and a vital supply route for transporting goods out of the country.

A field commander in the RSF’s western sector acknowledged that the group’s military police have been unable to rein in its own troops and mobilized fighters joining its ranks, many of whom have turned to looting and theft. Some have even resorted to dismantling and selling doors to sustain themselves, the commander told Mada Masr.

The city’s healthcare system is also struggling. All hospitals in Nyala have ceased operations, a medical source from the Darfur regional government told Mada Masr, except for the Nyala Specialized Hospital, which is reserved for RSF casualties. Meanwhile, the Nyala Teaching Hospital remains partially functional under the management of CARE and Medecins Sans Frontieres, offering only emergency obstetrics and gynecology, the source said.

Civil institutions have also shut down following a federal government decision in January to suspend salary payments to all employees in RSF-controlled states, impacting ministries and public institutions.

In May 2024, the RSF established the Civil Administration in South Darfur, appointing Al-Zein Ahmed Mohamed as its head. The administration consists of around 70 members selected from the state’s most prominent figures by the commander of the RSF’s South Darfur military zone.

A resident of Nyala accused Mohamed of personally leading field inspections in the city’s markets alongside administrative officers, tribal leaders and RSF officers to collect traders’ revenues and divide them among themselves.

While food supplies and fuel continue to reach the city’s markets, they are sold at exorbitant prices, according to a trader in Nyala. Goods come in from Chad and Libya, while vegetables, fruit and bread are sourced locally, they told Mada Masr. 

A sack of sugar costs 175,000-180,000 Sudanese pounds (around US$291-$299), a gallon of gasoline 30,000 pounds (around $50), a gallon of diesel 20,000 pounds (around $33) and a barrel of water 2,500 pounds (around $4), according to the trader. 

Though an administration has been formed in Nyala, the trader said it has no tangible presence on the ground aside from former local government employees going to marketplaces, imposing fees and levies. All former government buildings and municipal offices have been looted, the trader added.

Reinstating Nyala’s previous municipal system is nearly impossible, the resident said, as each city entrance is controlled by armed groups that charge 4,000-5,000 Sudanese pounds just to let vehicles through. These revenues, according to the source, are pocketed by specific individuals rather than used to fund the administration’s functions.

Another Nyala resident told Mada Masr that Mohamed operates out of the United Capital Bank building and has no real presence on the ground, suggesting that his appointment was made to appease his tribe. The resident also confirmed that all government ministries and institutions remain shut.

But gold trade continues, with RSF-affiliated vehicles regularly travelling to mines in Jebel Amer, Aghbash and Sonbol, the second resident said. 

Meanwhile, civilian and military flights to and from the Nyala Airport continue, a Sudanese military intelligence source and local traders told Mada Masr, adding that vehicles affiliated with the RSF’s economic sector transport key exports — such as gum arabic and gold — to the airport.

A prominent figure from Nyala’s main market told Mada Masr that the cargo plane the military brought down in December was found carrying local products intended for smuggling, adding that daily flights into Nyala are not just for arms shipments but also for smuggling livestock and gold, with the administration overseeing camel exports.

The source further noted that in RSF-controlled localities, tribal leaders now wield authority akin to commissioners, with the RSF exerting control over all aspects of governance. The source added that most tribal administrations in Nyala aligned with the paramilitary group and engaged in mobilizing troops to join the RSF’s ranks.