Sources: Sudan truce agreement around corner with US-Egypt backing

The Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are edging closer to an agreement on a humanitarian ceasefire, following an intensive round of talks hosted by Cairo over the past two days, informed Egyptian and Sudanese sources told Mada Masr.

The US-led proposal begins with a three-month humanitarian ceasefire, during which negotiations would be held to reach a comprehensive truce and launch a political dialogue between the Transitional Sovereignty Council, the RSF and representatives of all Sudanese forces with the aim of forming a joint executive authority to resume the political process during a three-year transition, two Egyptian government sources told Mada Masr.

Talks hosted in Washington several weeks ago had failed to yield concrete results but were resumed in recent days amid growing international pressure to stop the war following the massacres that took place in Fasher last week.

American efforts in Cairo over the past few days saw the military return to the negotiation table.

Talks between representatives of TSC chair and military Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo have been ongoing for 48 hours, a former Egyptian diplomat familiar with Egyptian-Sudanese relations told Mada Masr.

An Egyptian official familiar with the meetings of the US-led Quad group on Sudan suggested that an agreement on the truce was imminent, but said, “I cannot confirm it will happen 100 percent,” noting that there is significant American pressure on this out of fear that the war could expand.

Washington presented a proposal for a humanitarian truce between the military and the RSF during discussions led by US Senior Advisor for African and Arab Affairs Massad Boulos, a source in the TSC told Mada Masr.

The military, meanwhile, continues consultations with its power-sharing partners — representatives of the armed movements’ joint force. The leaders of the armed movements view accepting the truce as tantamount to conceding legitimacy to the RSF’s control over Darfur, the TSC source said.

The rapid development in talks comes after the fall of the Darfuri city of Fasher last week. Sources previously told Mada Masr that the fall of the city could lead to the de facto partition of Sudan.

In the wake of the city’s fall, significant regional pressure has been exerted to bring both sides to the negotiation table.

The Egyptian official close to the Quad said the United States spoke with Saudi Arabia, which in turn pressured Burhan, and noted that the Americans were unhappy with Iran's growing influence in East Africa — a relationship the military has increasingly turned to for military and logistical support.

The African Caucus, which favors the RSF, lobbied strongly to stop the war following the atrocities committed in Fasher, the Egyptian official says.

As for Egypt, according to the official, it supports a ceasefire now because the United Arab Emirates informed Washington that Hemedti was ready to launch a new attack on Khartoum. It also fears an escalation in the war and backsliding of the Sudanese Armed Forces’ military gains over the last year.

According to the former diplomat, Egypt has been trying to lobby for an agreement by sending envoys to Chad, Kenya and the Central African Republic, and has also been trying to talk to different Sudanese parties, including members of the joint force.

The US ceasefire proposal is seen as a goodwill initiative, with Washington pressing for the truce to take effect under terms that commit both sides to refrain from moving troops or attacking military positions, according to the TSC source.

The military insists on halting all military supplies during the truce, considering this to be identical to the conditions of the Jeddah agreement reached in May 2023, following US- and Saudi Arabia-mediated talks. The agreement had put the military in a bad position, as the RSF used the truce to transfer weapons and equipment and to reposition its forces.

Per the US formulation, the truce will last an initial three months under the supervision of a joint coordination committee, according to the TSF source. Washington, the source said, is relying on Cairo to persuade the Sudanese government delegation to accept its proposal.

Describing the anticipated process, the Egyptian official close to the Quad said it would be “something similar to what happened in Gaza,” with a multiple phase approach. “Trump wants to end the war in Sudan,” the official added.

As for the situation the truce would entail, the official said, “Everyone will stay where they are. Humanitarian aid will be allowed in. And then we will see what happens next. We will start a process of negotiations.”

Egypt, the TSC source said, is pushing for the two sides to sign the agreement in Cairo, in the presence of both Burhan and Hemedti. The source doubted however that Burhan would take part in the signing ceremony, given the broad resistance within the military to meeting Hemedti.

The former Egyptian diplomat told Mada Masr that the deal on the table today is similar to what the parties discussed in Washington before the fall of Fasher and it remains something that neither side can really agree to: sharing power and wealth.

“Burhan will not agree to have Hemedti as a partner in ruling Sudan. Hemedti will not allow gold mines and other trade subject to the scrutiny of the state. This has not changed much after the fall of Fasher. It remains to be a zero sum game, but you have to realize that world leaders in general, including the Saudis, Emiratis, Burhan, Hemedti and, of course, Egypt would not like to oppose Trump,” the diplomat said.

“If Trump says he wants a deal, he will get people to agree to some sort of deal. But whether this is a deal that could survive and have impact on the ground is another story. So if the question is whether Burhan and Hemedti could meet or not, they could meet in Cairo or Jeddah. It doesn’t matter. The meeting itself is not important. The issue is: would they agree on anything? That is a different story.”

A source in the RSF told Mada Masr that the RSF delegation has no objection to signing a ceasefire agreement, but insists on preventing the military from committing any violations. The RSF, the source said, expects the military to exploit the truce by using a social cover — namely popular resistance forces — to arm sympathetic communities within RSF-held areas without directly moving its own forces during the ceasefire.

Boulos confirmed earlier today that the US is working on reaching a three-month humanitarian truce in Sudan, which can be extended to nine months, noting that talks between the RSF and the military are going “noticeably well” despite “field complications.”

With ceasefire talks advancing, the military is working on fortifying the current front line in the Kordofan region, which could become a de facto armistice line.

Earlier this week, the military carried out extensive airdrop operations for the 22nd Infantry Division in the city of Babanusa in West Kordofan, a military source told Mada Masr. The military also advanced on Monday toward the city of Bara — which the RSF recaptured last week — seizing control of surrounding villages and now besieging the city in an effort to prevent the RSF forces within from receiving any military supplies. In doing so, the military aims to strengthen its position on the ground ahead of any truce signing.

The RSF’s bloody takeover of Fasher in the north of Darfur tipped the scales after they had been in the military’s favor, and increased international pressure to stop the RSF’s massacres, causing fears it would force a scenario where Sudan is divided.

Talks between the RSF and the military have stuck at an impasse, with the military holding onto its hardline position of refusing to accept parity with the RSF and insisting on implementing the Jeddah agreement. The military also staunchly refused a new proposal backed by the US, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, at the same time as the RSF received military supplies from the UAE, tightened its siege on Fasher and engaged in aggressive military operations in Kordofan.

Egyptian sources who spoke to Mada Masr in recent weeks describe the path toward a ceasefire coming from shifts in the US perspective and considerations in Egypt.

An Egyptian official with inroads in Washington told Mada Masr that the reason behind the United States’ decisive push in resolving the situation in Sudan came from Boulos. The source indicated that when Boulous met with people in the African Caucus, they emphasized that Burhan was an Islamist, but when the US envoy began speaking with parties in the region, he did not get the impression that Sudan was about to become an Islamist regime or that Burhan would lead the country in that direction. Therefore, according to the source, Boulus began to fear that Sudan would remain on the brink of a permanent civil war that would pose a threat to the stability of the region, including Chad, South Sudan, Somalia and the Red Sea region.

Another source close to the Egyptian foreign minister tells Mada Masr that before the fall of Fasher, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Atty became heavily involved in this issue, making dozens of calls with political figures in Washington to make them understand why stability in Sudan was of paramount importance. According to the source, Egypt was angling to be the deciding actor in the Sudan peace process, bringing the two sides' aides together for direct talks, with the plan being that these would be followed by a meeting between the aides and Boulos in Cairo.

A sixth Egyptian official tells Mada Masr that the change in the Egyptian position was not a spur-of-the-moment decision, but rather a result of the protracted war and the Sudanese military's inability to make tangible progress in western Sudan, despite its success in recapturing Khartoum. This was compounded by ongoing disputes within the armed forces and the TSC, as well as the growing power of the RSF thanks to continuous military supplies and its leadership's ability to cultivate local and regional alliances.

Cairo, the source said, had come under Emirati pressure over its stance backing the Sudanese military, which Abu Dhabi views as a partner of, and an incubator for, the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt’s concern, according to the source, is that its stance could lead to a scaling back in Emirati support.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi previously pitched this plan to Burhan on October 15 in Cairo, weeks before Fasher’s takeover, according to a Sudanese political source, as well as the two previous Egyptian officials.

However, at that time, Burhan was not interested in the proposal, even expressing displeasure toward the offer presented in Cairo, viewing this push by Egypt to be a sign of Cairo’s declining military support for the military and the TSC in their confrontation with the RSF, according to the Egyptian officials.

At the time of that meeting, the Sudanese political source spoke of how there is a measure of confidence that, even without a truce, the military could achieve a major breakthrough in Darfur in a 6-8 month period.

However, these hopes were dashed with the fall of Fasher.