Poll reveals over 70 percent will vote ‘yes’, but yet to read draft

Private polling organization — The Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research Baseera — revealed 76 percent of respondents would participate in next week’s constitutional referendum, and 74 percent of them would vote “yes,” according to a poll conducted in December 2013.

Over half of those surveyed said they had not read the proposed new charter, and 36 percent said they had read sections of it.

Baseera surveyed 2068 potential voters, ages 18 and over, from Egypt’s 27 governorates by phone between December 24 and 26, 2013, with a 65 percent response rate.

Fourteen percent of participants said they were planning to boycott the referendum, and ten percent were undecided on whether or not to participate. 13 percent of those planning to boycott said they thought their votes would be pointless, while 22 percent cited personal reasons for the boycott.

Baseera revealed 8 percent of those surveyed nationally didn’t know about the referendum, with this figure increasing to 12 percent in rural areas. 76 percent said they knew the date of the referendum, but 24 percent didn’t.

The organization claimed educational levels didn’t appear to bias intended participation or awareness.

Over half of those surveyed expected the voting process to be fair, whilst 5 percent maintained it would only be fair if there is adequate supervision and security, and the Muslim Brotherhood is prevented from campaigning near polling stations.

 On Wednesday, expatriate Egyptians began voting overseas, a process that is due to end on January 12, two days ahead of the national referendum, scheduled for January 14 and 15.

A referendum on the last — predominantly Islamist-drafted — constitution in December 2012 was approved by 64 percent of a low voter turnout rate of 33 percent.

This constitution has since been amended by a 50-member committee of representatives, but with limited Islamist representation and no Brotherhood participation in the process.

Egyptians have been bombarded in recent weeks with vote “yes” campaigns on national TV, radio and advertising billboards.

Those boycotting or advocating a “no” vote include the April 6 Youth Movement and the Strong Egypt party, who recently announced they were considering a boycott following the arrests of members for putting up “no” stickers.

However, critics of such national polls commonly cite methodological issues, sampling, and leading questions among a number of issues. Often they make subjective assumptions based on quantitative data from a small section of the population.