Israeli delegation discusses regional security in Cairo ahead of expected retaliation from Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis

An Israeli delegation visiting Cairo on Saturday spoke with Egyptian officials about regional security after the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders shook the regional balance last week, three informed sources told Mada Masr.

After groups within the axis of resistance coalition announced preparations to retaliate against Israel, the talks in Cairo touched on the potential of increased attacks against Israel from the Houthis and the subject of Egypt’s airspace, according to the sources. 

Leaders from Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis have vowed to respond to Israel in the coming period after Israel announced its responsibility last week for the assassination of senior Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukr. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated hours later in Tehran.

In the wake of the assassinations, United States President Joe Biden said he held a “very direct” phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday and urged Israel to return to the ceasefire talks mediated by Egypt and Qatar aiming to end its war on Gaza and ease the regional tensions escalating in parallel.

Israeli officials, who included representatives of the Shin Bet and Mossad agencies, according to Axios, were reportedly visiting Cairo on Saturday for prisoner and ceasefire negotiations. An Egyptian security source had previously told Mada Masr that the assassinations were a “fireball” to any momentum toward a ceasefire.

Expecting potential attacks in the near future, the Israeli delegation visiting Cairo also wanted to discuss security arrangements with Egyptian officials, said an Egyptian researcher affiliated with an intelligence body, an Egyptian official and a United Nations diplomat who all spoke on condition of anonymity in order to address such sensitive topics. 

Military responses against Israel are expected in the coming period, with estimates varying between a more immediate attack and longer term steps. Following the assassination of Haniyeh, for which Israel has not claimed responsibility, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran plans to take vengeance against “the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime” for the explosion that killed Hamas’ political leader on Iranian soil.

To counter the Israeli airstrike on Beirut that killed Shukr just hours before the explosion in Tehran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the group will carry out a “real and calculated” response against Israel, which also killed Iranian military advisor Milad Bedi and five civilians in the same attack on July 30.

The UN diplomat told Mada Masr that Israeli envoys were sent to several Arab capitals last week on visits that were not all publicly announced to discuss regional security in the event of potential responses from Iran and Hezbollah.

The first Egyptian official and the researcher said that Israel’s delegation in Cairo wanted to make sure that Egypt is committed to closing its air space in case there are any attacks.

Iran has not released details of how it will retaliate this time, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry said on Monday that the country’s response will be “measured” rather than escalatory.

In what was largely considered a measured response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iran released a salvo of missiles targeting Israel in April. The attack prompted short-term airspace closures in Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan, with Egypt’s government denying reports at the time that it too had shut its airspace. Following Iran’s volley, the Israeli military said that defense support was provided to deter the attack by the US, the United Kingdom, France and Jordan, with one Iranian missile reported to have exploded in Jordanian airspace. 

In anticipation of Iran’s response this time, the US deployed additional assets into the region this week and reached out through diplomatic channels to seek a contained response. Discussing the regional security situation, the Jordanian foreign minister paid a rare visit to Iran, while Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Atty spoke with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri. Both Jordan and Egypt’s premiers also discussed the regional situation with Biden. Bagheri said Wednesday that it was necessary for Iran to respond and that it will do so in a “proportionate” manner.

Further attacks on Israel are also expected from Yemen’s Houthis, who have vowed “a military response” against the Occupation in the wake of Haniyeh’s assassination.

The Houthis have fired multiple missiles toward Israeli targets in recent months, including a drone that successfully targeted Tel Aviv in July and was claimed to have passed through Egyptian airspace to do so, according to the Institute for the Study of War. 

The Israeli delegation in Cairo also discussed the possibility of increased Houthi attacks in the coming period, a researcher working at an Egyptian intelligence-affiliated center told Mada Masr.

Houthi operations are the “least predictable” among the resistance axis actors, Michael Hanna, a program director specializing in US foreign policy with the International Crisis Group told Mada Masr, adding that “it would be wrong to think of the Houthis as an obedient proxy for Iran.”

“In any case, Egypt can not leave its airspace open to passing-by missiles and drones. This is not just about the security of Israel or the security agreement with the United States,” said the first Egyptian official speaking to Mada Masr about Israel’s Cairo visit. “It is about the sovereign right of Egypt to protect its airspace.”

A larger regional war would have adverse effects for Egypt, which is facing a stifling economic crisis and an increasingly constrained regional position. Houthi drones, missile fire and attacks on commercial ships through the Suez Canal have already cut Egypt’s revenue from the waterway by more than half, and Egyptian mediators have faced increasingly distrusting Israeli partners who have in recent years cultivated stronger relations with Gulf countries.