Hamas’ politics under Sinwar

Leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar was selected by the movement on Tuesday evening to head its political wing. 

His appointment came after the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week, for which Israel did not announce responsibility.

A high-level Egyptian security official who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity described Sinwar's appointment as “a disastrous choice," arguing that it indicates broader control by the group’s military wing over its decision-making, which could prompt Israel to be more aggressive toward Gaza.

Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Israel Katz described Sinwar’s appointment on Wednesday as "yet another compelling reason to swiftly eliminate him and wipe this vile organization off the face of the earth." Israeli officials have also committed to eliminating Sinwar as one of the key goals of the aggression on Gaza.

Sinwar, who took over as military commander at Hamas in 2013, has been painted as the "architect" of October 7’s Operation al-Aqsa Flood in which hundreds of resistance fighters breached Israeli military sites adjacent to the Gaza Strip and reached surrounding settlements. The attack which led to the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the capture of 251 others, including military personnel.

After a period of mourning for Haniyeh, leaders in Hamas’ Shura Council held three days of consultations to select a new leader.

Haniyeh’s assassination “left a huge void within Hamas, but has not caused it to falter,” a source close to the group told Mada Masr on condition of anonymity during the consultations. Haniyeh was a figure who enjoyed internal acceptance within the movement as well as in many Arab countries, the source said, noting that the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, must also agree to the candidate selected as political leader.

Hamas is accustomed to anticipating sudden vacancies within the movement at any given time, given that its leaders are vulnerable to assassination attempts, the source said. 

Israel targeted and killed Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in Gaza City in an airstrike in 2004, as well as his predecessor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, just one month later. Israeli agents also attempted to assassinate Khaled Meshaal, a former political leader of the group, in Amman in 1997.

Meshaal’s name was circulated alongside that of the current Shura Council chair Mohamed Ismail Darwish, known as Abu Omar Hassan, among a list of potential candidates to succeed Haniyeh, the source noted. Reports named Khalil al-Hayya as another nominee.

Yet it was Sinwar who was named as the group’s leader on Tuesday night in a short statement released on Hamas’s official channels. Hamas spokesperson Jihad Taha stated on Tuesday that the selection of Sinwar as the head of the resistance movement’s political bureau was "a response to Haniyeh’s assassination and a message to the enemy that we have entered a new phase of the conflict."

The Egyptian security source said that Hamas had deemed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conditions unacceptable during the latest round of ceasefire talks, which were led by Haniyeh  for Hamas. Under Sinwar’s leadership, the source expected Israel’s demands to be entirely rejected.

Amr al-Shobaki, a political analyst and former MP, noted Sinwar’s leading decision-making role in  Hamas, adding that Sinwar was decisive  for determining the remit of ceasefire negotiations even under Haniyeh’s leadership. 

Sinwar also represents a more empowered head of Hamas, said Shobaki, able to deal with Israel, whereas Haniyeh as political leader could not officially do so.

White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby acknowledged on Wednesday Sinwar’s centrality in the ceasefire talks on Wednesday, but added that Sinwar is "a terrorist [with] an awful lot of blood on his hands.” Sinwar was added to the US list of most wanted international terrorists in 2015.

But Sinwar’s new position does not alter the negotiations’ course, Kirby said, stating that he "has always been the chief decision-maker when it comes to negotiations over the course of these, now nine, months."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken likewise stated Tuesday that Sinwar "has been and remains the primary decider" when it comes to brokering a ceasefire deal.  

Shobaki, too, said that Sinwar’s appointment will not alter Egypt’s position as mediator, noting clear channels between Egypt and Sinwar dating back years. 

Kirby claimed on Wednesday that the US believes "we are as close as we think we have ever been” to securing a hostage release and ceasefire deal. 

The most recent meeting of the ceasefire talks took place on Saturday in Cairo, attended by Israeli and Egyptian officials. Qatar was absent due to "political sensitivities" following Haniyeh’s assassination, as reported by Axios, citing two Israeli sources.

But the security source told Mada Masr after Saturday’s meeting that the Israeli delegation had no political intention of ending the war. The source added that the Israelis made it clear that the war would not stop until Sinwar is eliminated, and that Netanyahu plans to keep fighting in Gaza until at least the end of the year.