Hamdeen Sabbahi: A civilian alternative or not?

As all those concerned with Egypt's turbulent political situation hold their breath for Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's much-anticipated presidential bid, there are a few others who believe that there is still a chance for civilian rule.

For those, the candidacy of Hamdeen Sabbahi, founder of the Popular Current, who came third in the last presidential race in June 2012 with almost five million votes, presents one last hope for a civilian and democratic state. His failure, they say, could mean the militarization of the Egyptian state with Sisi winning the presidential race.

But, it may be, as many commentators aver, that amid widespread support for Sisi as president, the candidacy of Sabbahi, who has just declared his intention to run, is a waste of time.

A statement by the Supreme Council of Armed Forces late January empowering Sisi's expected presidential bid has turned the recently promoted-military leader from a presidential hopeful into a candidate who is supported by the country's strongest institution: the Armed Forces.

“SCAF has witnessed Field Marshall Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s achievements since his appointment to head the Armed Forces… and SCAF can do nothing except to regard with utmost respect the wishes of the people to nominate him for the presidency, which is a call of duty,” the statement read.

The statement added that SCAF respected Sisi’s belief that it is “mandatory” to respond to popular calls “in the context of the free choice of the people.”

Immediately after the release of the statement, the Popular Current slammed the Armed Forces' statement, deeming it “a clear intervention in the presidential elections and the upcoming power preparations in Egypt."

The statement added that the language used in SCAF's statement gives the sense that Sisi is running for the presidency with the support of the Armed Forces “as if he is nominated under its name.”

“We find ourselves committed to warning against the involvement of the nationalistic army in political affairs, or in supporting a certain candidate over others. This [transfers] the nationalistic army from the center of national consensus and its great status among the people to a source of conflict and an actor in the political process, which is a status that we neither accept nor wish,” the Popular Current declared in its statement.

The statement ends by stressing its wish that Sisi remain in his position as the minister of defense, considering his current post “a guarantee for Egypt and for the revolution.”

Sabbahi repeatedly said that his plans for the presidential race depend on the programs of other candidates, indirectly referring to Sisi, and whether their programs reflect the demands of the revolution. But Sabbahi swiftly decided to run for the elections late Saturday.

“First of all our battle is against poverty, regression, corruption and oppression. We are the people who chanted in the squares ‘the people and the army are one hand,’ and Hamdeen will go through this battle in the name of the revolution and for the people and the military,” he said during the press conference announcing his candidacy.

Sabbahi highlights the fact that he is a civilianas his main advantage over Sisi, who enjoys overwhelming popular support. His supporters believe that Sabbahi’s  civilian status means that he will protect revolutionary dreams of civilian rule and civilian executive supremacy over the military.

“Our battle will aim to convey the demand of the revolution for the people to be the masters and the military to be the protector, and both to be one hand,” Sabbahi said.

In a phone interview, Member of Popular Current board of trustees Raed Salama said that Sabbahi's candidacy is crucial to the continuation of the revolution, referring to the Popular Current’s statement against SCAF's endorsement as expressing “a serious concern about the intervention of the Armed Forces in the political scene, which we see as very dangerous.”

“If we contest the presidential race, we are aspiring to win it, not just to present an honorable representation,” Salama confidently asserted.

Not all of those who support Sabbahi’s candidacy do so on the basis that he stands a chance to actually win, however.

For them, the positive outcome of Sabbahi’s presidential bid would be forming a real opposition front that can confront the dominance of the military that would be entrenched should Sisi win the presidency.

Founder of the Socialist Alternative Movement Mahmoud Nawar says that Sabbahi's candidacy will be crucial in the stage after Sisi wins the elections.

“I'm confident that Sisi will win. I just believe that Sabbahi's candidacy is important as the cornerstone of a real opposition bloc that can carry out the revolution's demands after Sisi wins elections,” he explains.

Nawar believes that the revolutionaries need to think more realistically in the sense that Sisi cannot win elections without real opposition. He suggests that forming an opposition bloc that clearly defines and articulates the revolution's social and political program will expose military rule.

“It is important that Sisi does not secure a sweeping win, but rather a win that shows that there are others who oppose military rule,” he says.

June 30 alliance and a potential collapse

The issue is not just whether Sabbahi stands a chance, but what impact it may have on the so-called "June 30 alliance" between the military and civilian revolutionary forces against the deposed Muslim Brotherhood.

The fragility of this alliance was increasingly evident in the lead-up to the constitutional referendum in January, as they scrambled to come up with clear positions on the draft. Cracks within parties also came to the fore as they sought to decide whether to endorse the draft or not.

Fearful of the disintegration of this already-fragile alliance, critical voices are urging Sabbahi not to run — including individuals from the Popular Current itself, who wholeheartedly supported Sabbahi in his previous presidential bid and were the cornerstone of his campaign.

Member of Popular Current's board of trustees and movie director Khaled Youssef is one of those who believes that Sabbahi's presidential bid is not in Egypt's interests.

“We need to keep June 30 alliance as strong as we can. The country faces terrorism and needs us united to build it. I believe that revolutionary forces need to take their time in the coming four years to build bases on the ground. Competition can take place after those four years,” Youssef said during a phone interview to Al-Qahira Al-Youm talkshow.

In his rejection of Sabbahi's bid, Youssef went as far as claiming that his decision was not yet final.

“Sabbahi declared his personal intention to run for presidency after the huge pressure by the youth, but the Popular Current's board of trustees is the only entity that will decide whether he runs for presidency,” he added, refusing to reveal the name of the candidate he prefers until the Popular Current 's board of trustees declares its final decision.

Indeed, the Popular Current’s board of trustees did endorse Sabbahi's candidacy on February 10, with 54 members supporting his presidential bid, three against it, and two demanding that the voting be postponed.

But Youssef has openly voiced his support for Sisi on previous occasions.

The split within the Popular Current is reflected in the Tamarod campaign, which gathered millions of signatures opposing the presidency of former President Mohamed Morsi. The membership of a number of its founders was suspended after they publicly declared their support for Sabbahi.

Thus, the candidacy of Sabbahi may not only be a threat to June 30 alliance, but to the coherence of some civilian groups as well.

Founder Hassan Shahin said in the same press conference when Sabbahi declared his bid that Sisi is not going to protect January 25 demands, citing the return of Mubarak regime officials and smear campaigns against activists.

Shahin and Mohamed Abdel Aziz were suspended for “violating the movement’s agreement to endorse Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,” Moustafa al-Seweisy, member of Tamarod’s central committee, previously told Mada Masr.

Between Sisi and Sabbahi: Any difference?

While Sabbahi supporters associate his presidential bid with revolutionary demands, and an alternative to military rule, given Sabbahi’s support to the military over the previous period, this may not be such an easy sell.

For those critical of the military’s entrenchment since Morsi’s ouster, Sabbahi does not present a credible “civilian” alternative, given his Nasserist views on the role of the military in politics and his endorsement of the privileges granted to it in the constitution passed last month.

That's why activist and former member of Mohamed ElBaradei’s campaign Yasser al-Attar believes that people should not “twist the lemon twice.”

Attar specifically refers to an analogy used during the elections in 2012 when revolutionaries were pushed to support Morsi overMubarak regime official Ahmed Shafiq.

“We should not be pushed once again to support a candidate we do not prefer just because the other choice is too ugly, we need to create our own options,” he added.

For Attar, the question of military rule goes far beyond having a president from the military.

“Even if Sabbahi wins over Sisi, we still have a strong military junta that enjoys exceptional powers compared to civilian state institutions, and I still see no difference between Sisi and Sabbahi when it comes to this issue specifically, both adopt the same Nasserist-style idea,” he explains.

But Nawar believes that Sabbahi's bid could be different when it comes to the economy. While Sisi, according to him, is surrounded by Mubarak's neoliberal elites, Sabbahi is willing to adopt more socially-conscious economic policies.

“For three years, the revolution did not have a well-defined program that addresses Egypt's economic and political needs. It is obvious that Sisi will resort to austerity measures, so we need a platform that encourages economic welfare and better spending policies. We need a platform that encourages a stronger role of the state in the economy in face of the current neoliberal agenda. Sabbahi's candidacy achieves that,” he explains.

For Attar, boycotting the presidential race altogether is his own current choice, deeming the upcoming presidential elections as a “democratic play,” as he sees no guarantees for free and fair elections.

“Sabbahi dreams about the days of Gamal Abdel Nasser, the Muslim Brotherhood dreams about the era of Hassan al-Banna, Shafiq dreams about the days of Hosni Mubarak,” he says. “All of those dream about the past and only few dream about the future.”