Sources: Israel emerges optimistic from ceasefire talks in Doha, Hamas sees ‘major obstacles’

Israeli officials emerged with optimism that a deal could be reached for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, following talks in Doha held on Friday. 

Yet, Hamas, which declined to participate in the Doha talks pending confirmation of Israel’s seriousness, said on Sunday evening that it had listened to what happened in Doha and that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhu had introduced new demands to the talks with the intention of prolonging the war. The movement insisted instead on a return to a July version of the framework deal. Two sources informed of Hamas’s stance, speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, said that the movement still sees major obstacles impeding the progress of a deal. 

The stalled talks began in Doha on Thursday amid a push from actors in the region as well as in the West to close a deal in order to evade a regional escalation of the war on Gaza. 

Discussions are to continue in Cairo this week, with mediators Egypt and Qatar proposing a plan to complete and implement the first phase of a ceasefire deal, according to an informed Egyptian security official who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. 

With Hamas wary of agreeing to terms which will allow for any resumption of war in the strip, however, the two sources informed of Hamas’s stance — one a diplomat and the other a researcher in an intelligence affiliated research organization — cast doubt on the viability of the proposal.

What happened in Doha? 

The talks in Doha were attended on Friday by an Israeli delegation, as well as representatives of Qatar, Egypt and the United States. Hamas was absent from the talks, with the movement insisting on clearer guarantees that Israel is committed to a negotiated solution before it can rejoin talks, citing a recent attack on a school in Gaza and the assassination of its former political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, as evidence of Israel’s lack of “seriousness.” Israel has not claimed responsibility for the explosion which targeted and killed Haniyeh in Tehran.  

Israel felt that significant progress was made on the details of the first phase of the agreement, said a second diplomatic source, citing the impression of a high-ranking Israeli source. 

The first phase of a framework deal includes a 42-day plan to halt hostilities and improve humanitarian conditions for Palestinians in Gaza, with Hamas set to release some of the over 100 Israeli prisoners it holds with other resistance factions in the strip, and for Israel to release Palestinian prisoners, according to an earlier version of the deal reviewed by Mada Masr.

The delegation that traveled from Israel to Doha had an expanded mandate to move forward in the talks in Qatar, according to reports. 

Israel’s position shifted on Hamas’s demands regarding Palestinian prisoners who have already been released, said the first diplomatic source, citing sources in both Hamas and Egypt. They also described a shift in Hamas’s stance on the number of Israeli prisoners to be released, although they did not elaborate on the nature of the shift. 

It was this which generated impressions of progress emerging from the talks on Friday, the first diplomatic source said. But they noted that the negotiations in Doha did not mark decisive progress. 

Hamas sees no substantial change in Israel's position regarding issues that are non-negotiable for the movement, said a researcher at an intelligence-affiliated research center with knowledge of the talks, speaking to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity. The researcher, who is in contact with the Hamas delegation, said that Hamas is not willing to retreat from conditions including the definitive withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, even if in phases. 

Other non-negotiables for Hamas, the source said, include a prohibition of routine entries into Gaza by Israeli security personnel under the guise of inspections, the absence of Israeli elements on the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza, where Israel’s military has constructed a road dividing the strip parallel to the Israeli Netzarim crossing, no later than the end of the second phase of the agreement.

What happens next? 

Further discussions on technical details are scheduled to take place in Cairo this week, according to the second diplomatic source. 

Israeli, American and Egyptian technical delegations are due to attend, and the discussions pertain to security arrangements for the Philadelphi corridor, which runs along Gaza’s border with Egypt, as well as the operation of the Rafah crossing exclusively for individuals, the source said. 

Israel sent troops into Rafah in May, occupying the border crossing between the most southern area of the Gaza Strip and Egypt, as well as the Philadelphi Corridor.

Israel claims that weapons reach Hamas via the area, an allegation which Egypt has denied multiple times. 

Alongside the details of a ceasefire agreement, talks over the post-war scenarios for Gaza have also seen Israel and Egypt discuss the future management of the area, with proposals reportedly put forward for a remote surveillance system to monitor traffic in the border area, including underground. 

The researcher said that Hamas is insistent on a prohibition on the installation of surveillance cameras or sensors on the Palestinian side of the crossing and their placement under direct and exclusive Israeli control, and demands the complete removal of any shape or form of Israeli presence from the Philadelphi corridor.

Talks in Cairo this week are also set to see discussion on the delivery of aid to northern and southern Gaza separately, with Israel adamant about separating the north from the south and implementing different security measures for each region accordingly, according to the second diplomatic source. 

Technical delegations are expected to meet in Cairo on Tuesday, with political negotiations set to resume in the city in the ensuing days.

The Egyptian security official, who is close to negotiations on the Egyptian side, said that Cairo and Doha put forward a proposal to conclude and implement an agreement on the first phase, with particulars of the second phase to be finalized during implementation of the first. 

However, both diplomatic sources and the researcher ruled out the possibility that Hamas would agree to a fragmented approach to the agreement that could allow Israel to secure gains and resume its attacks on Gaza, even if less intense. 

All three countries resumed a push to revive ceasefire negotiations to avert retaliatory operations against Israel from Iran and Hezbollah following the assassination of Haniyeh and a Hezbollah leader in July. 

After Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Iran vowed to respond to Israel. Officials in Iran said last week that only a ceasefire would delay retaliation. Hezbollah has also said it will retaliate following Israel’s assassination of senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in July.